Fab February Banter

[sparklecity]

I can't believe the mayor of Spartanburg hasn't issued a travel ban and curfew yet.  WTH are they thinking!!!

[lilj4425]

I can't believe the mayor of Spartanburg hasn't issued a travel ban and curfew yet.  WTH are they thinking!!!

This is why I live in Greenville.

[mackerel_sky]

Perfect scenario for mby: get to 18 degrees tonight, thick clouds roll in at daybreak, no heating from the sun, precip starts about 10-noon

Get about 1.3 QPF , whatever it may be, temps stay 26-28 degrees! One can dream!

[mackerel_sky]

Gonna watch Chris Justice at 6 and get his thoughts! One of the best local mets, IMO

[sparklecity]

Perfect scenario for mby: get to 18 degrees tonight, thick clouds roll in at daybreak, no heating from the sun, precip starts about 10-noon

Get about 1.3 QPF , whatever it may be, temps stay 26-28 degrees! One can dream!

 

Here's the more realistic scenario: Get to about 25 tonight as clouds roll in early.  Brief breaks in the clouds tomorrow allows surface temps to warm to 38 before .25 to .5" of precipitation moves in late afternoon.

[EmersonGA]

Some actual PM highs vs. 12Z GFS progs:

AHN 48 vs 49

ATL ~41 vs. 43

GVL 42 vs. 45

PDK ~39 vs. 42

RGA ~34 vs. 36

MGE ~38vs. 40

So, these N GA highs came in on average 2 degrees colder than the 12Z GFS per Meteostar fwiw.

Regarding IP, I'd say it averages somewhere around 4:1 based on past major ATL IP's. So, 1" of liquid was equivalent to ~4" of IP but with a range.

I topped out at 38 earlier at 17 this morning. Currently 34 and wishing this winter was over. I'm ready to garden and only worry about thunderstorms after this piece of crap winter. I've trained myself to only get excited under 60 hours and even that failed this time.

[DopplerWx]

Insane cold with snow (and sleet) pack here and north. WIdespread negative numbers over the N half of NC.  Check out the spot of -30s over WV.  This is valid 7 AM Friday.

 

 

i pray that a severe ice storm doesnt verify because imagine if power went out and then 3 days later we have below zero readings.  truly life threatening cold.

[mackerel_sky]

Here's the more realistic scenario: Get to about 25 tonight as clouds roll in early. Brief breaks in the clouds tomorrow allows surface temps to warm to 38 before .25 to .5" of precipitation moves in late afternoon.

Happens 9/10 times!

[CaryWx]

You need to upgrade! They got these great new things out called Laser Disks!! They are like silver records, but you have to flip them halfway through tho!!!

Get outta here with your crazy technology talk.  Like you can watch a video on a record player. pshaw!

[packbacker]

Perfect scenario for mby: get to 18 degrees tonight, thick clouds roll in at daybreak, no heating from the sun, precip starts about 10-noon

Get about 1.3 QPF , whatever it may be, temps stay 26-28 degrees! One can dream!

GFS would be nasty for you...

[lilj4425]

GFS would be nasty for you...

Jesus.

[AJF0602]

Well Morehead pulled the trigger...Winter Storm watch extends to the coast of NC.

[lilj4425]

So I just watched WYFF's update on Facebook and they sound more confused then we do. I think I will just look out the window starting tomorrow...yep.

[timnc910]

Nws just pulled the trigger here with a winter storm watch. I'm glad I got my salt when I did.. going to be crazy at stores come tommorow.

[chapelhill]

Forecast high was 3 degrees warmer than actual today. Hoping that this trend continues at least in the 850 range. There's only a few places that I want a warm nose in feb... Hopefully Lucy is a bit slow and Charlie Brown gets at least a bit of contact with the ball.

[AirNelson39]

Call me crazy but I love ice storms, something about them make them both beautiful and mesmerizing...unfortunately it's looking like I'll be all snow up here.

[mackerel_sky]

Call me crazy but I love ice storms, something about them make them both beautiful and mesmerizing...unfortunately it's looking like I'll be all snow up here.

That is sad , your only gonna get snow! Mountain people problems, lol

[max100]

I just have a gut feeling Atl is going to be caught off guard again...

[southernskimmer]

Call me crazy but I love ice storms, something about them make them both beautiful and mesmerizing...unfortunately it's looking like I'll be all snow up here.

Sigh

Rolls eyes

[AirNelson39]

That is sad , your only gonna get snow! Mountain people problems, lol

Haha no kidding, I'll prob head to wherever the ice is the worst.

[mackerel_sky]

Dale jr cheating, lol, lol, lol

Failed inspection afterwards

[sparklecity]

Hmmm over 1" of fzrn on 18z GFS

StnID: kgsp    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%============================================================================================================================150215/2100Z   3  20003KT  39.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0000Z   6  09004KT  28.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0300Z   9  08005KT  25.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/0600Z  12  07004KT  23.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150216/0900Z  15  07004KT  22.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1200Z  18  07004KT  21.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1500Z  21  09005KT  28.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150216/1800Z  24  12005KT  36.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150216/2100Z  27  10003KT  30.5F  SNPL    5:1| 0.2|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.041    5:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.04   79| 21|  0150217/0000Z  30  05007KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.26|| 0.252    5:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.26|| 0.29    0|  0|100150217/0300Z  33  04009KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.38|| 0.359    5:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.64|| 0.65    0|  0|100150217/0600Z  36  02007KT  29.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.38|| 0.358    5:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 1.02|| 1.01    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150217/0900Z  39  04003KT  22.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    5:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 1.02|| 1.01    0|  0|  0150217/1200Z  42  VRB02KT  14.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    5:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 1.02|| 1.01    0|  0|  0150217/1500Z  45  VRB02KT  33.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150217/1800Z  48  VRB00KT  36.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150217/2100Z  51  VRB02KT  37.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150218/0000Z  54  VRB01KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100150218/0300Z  57  33003KT  28.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|  0150218/0600Z  60  30004KT  19.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150218/0900Z  63  27004KT  17.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150218/1200Z  66  26007KT  16.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150218/1500Z  69  27010KT  21.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150218/1800Z  72  28012KT  25.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150218/2100Z  75  27012KT  25.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150219/0000Z  78  26006KT  20.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150219/0300Z  81  26007KT  17.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150219/0600Z  84  26006KT  16.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150219/0900Z  87  25006KT  12.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150219/1200Z  90  24006KT   9.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150219/1500Z  93  26005KT  14.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150219/1800Z  96  28005KT  22.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150219/2100Z  99  30005KT  25.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150220/0000Z 102  VRB01KT  14.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150220/0300Z 105  VRB02KT  13.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150220/0600Z 108  04003KT  11.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150220/0900Z 111  06004KT   9.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150220/1200Z 114  07004KT   7.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150220/1500Z 117  10004KT  14.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150220/1800Z 120  15003KT  25.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150220/2100Z 123  VRB02KT  29.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150221/0000Z 126  09003KT  20.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150221/0300Z 129  09004KT  21.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150221/0600Z 132  07003KT  17.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150221/0900Z 135  04003KT  18.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150221/1200Z 138  05005KT  18.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150221/1500Z 141  04005KT  21.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150221/1800Z 144  07004KT  22.0F  SNOW    5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150221/2100Z 147  05004KT  22.9F  SNOW    5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    5:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0150222/0000Z 150  09003KT  27.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.127    5:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.18    0|  0|100150222/0300Z 153  VRB02KT  27.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.28|| 0.267    5:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.45    0|  0|100150222/0600Z 156  20004KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140    5:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.59    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150222/0900Z 159  21003KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122    5:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.71    0|  0|100150222/1200Z 162  21003KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114    5:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.83    0|  0|100150222/1500Z 165  VRB02KT  38.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088    5:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.91    0|  0|100150222/1800Z 168  VRB02KT  43.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    5:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.93    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150222/2100Z 171  05005KT  41.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    5:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.93    0|  0|  0150223/0000Z 174  06006KT  37.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    5:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.93    0|  0|  0150223/0300Z 177  07005KT  34.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0150223/0600Z 180  06007KT  33.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0============================================================================================================================

[NGTim]

anybody from N. Ga out there?  woot woot! 

I tried to tell myself not to get too hyped up after the south trend a few days ago, but I really started to believe we'd bring in about 3 or 4 inches of snow, or at a minimum, at least the ground would be all white. (lumpkin co.)  I did tell my kids, though, to prepare for some snow or sleet to start then to prepare to just watch it most likely turn to a very cold mist or rain and wash any snow along, with our hopes, away, just to make sure they didn't get too disappointed.  Have just seen that happen so many times.   So at least we were somewhat realistic i guess.

 

Looks like I might be in for some bad freezing rain, though, so may get that wish of a white covering after all, just the wrong kind of ice.  hope we get lucky and get more sleet than zr if we aren't going to get snow.

 

But, as we learned in animal house, it wasn't over when the germans bombed perl harbor, and it aint over until we decide its over.  I have just scoured the internets and can find no upper level low or anything to come along and save us, some wacky local phenomenon, nothing.  But while I am prepared for just rain, or maybe a tree cracking ice storm, I will hold out hope that somewhere some programmer at the gfs forgot to carry the one, and this storm is going to take a jog south at the last minute and we will get our snow. 

 

I do have to say congrats to those to my north, like in parts of NC, and Kentucky, as it looks like some people are going to cash in.  Prayers for safety for those who get hit by freezing rain.  I will do my part if able to help those close by as I have the Stihl ready to go and some extra chains.  

 

What is also helping, is the fact that unlike many times when its hard to enjoy it even if you get snow, its going to get cold and stay cold and we got more fun and games to look forward to next weekend.  So for now, got the generator ready to go, the truck fueled up and fuel treatment in, plenty of wood in the dry, plus have a few days off work.   Thank goodness its not always the destination, but the journey.

 

 

[Jonathan]

James, how'd the Ukie look up this way?

 

I saw you say SWVA was all snow. What's the snow vs sleet look like in the border counties?

 

If you don't mind.

[superjames1992]

James, how'd the Ukie look up this way?

 

I saw you say SWVA was all snow. What's the snow vs sleet look like in the border counties?

 

If you don't mind.

 

For Bassett, it's about 8-9", give or take.  You sleet a little at the end.

 

The clown map has 10" for you, but I think that might be too high.

[Thrasher Fan]

  BradNitzWSB

I've seen a couple of reports on Twitter of very light sleet in Adairsville and Roswell.

2/15/15, 6:38 PM

 

 

Lol.

[NCSNOW]

Wow at replay of tv coverage on evening news in ne, boston. Saw cantor in thunder snow whiteout.

How bout the ukie, thanks james. This is gonna turn out to be one awesome 10 day + stretch of winter weather, when we look back. The cold coming and it's past mid Feb is truly amazing.

[Jonathan]

For Bassett, it's about 8-9", give or take.  You sleet a little at the end.

 

The clown map has 10" for you, but I think that might be too high.

 

Lawd have mercy, I'd take it in a heartbeat.

 

I've pretty much conceded to the fact that I'll change over to sleet. I just hope the initial thump of snow is a good one.

 

Also worried about the precip making it over the mountains into the dry air. I've seen that song and dance too many times.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

I was going to think about a subscription but I can not get my posts approved. So, no.

[sparklecity]

You guys up north are going to be sorely disappointed with this one.  It's coming south and jackpotting the upstate!  Foot or bust! 

 

Although perhaps I need to switch from liquor to beer