buckinbronco Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The NAM didn't pick up on any of the current precip in TX. Don't know how/if it will effect things down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Dunkman, we probably get like 3-4" of sleet on the NAM, so it's all good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM says screw everyone... I'm really not buying that we get practically blanked with no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Triad guys... take a look at that WRF-ARW map Allan just posted. Holy QPF bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well there you have it... http://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/gsp.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Dunkman, we probably get like 3-4" of sleet on the NAM, so it's all good! Is that what it's come to? We're wishing for a sleet storm now? I was so looking forward to gloating about Fab Feb all spring, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Triad guys... take a look at that WRF-ARW map Allan just posted. Holy QPF bomb. Dang ole BOOM man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Triad guys... take a look at that WRF-ARW map Allan just posted. Holy QPF bomb. Based off of that map I bet we could get 4-6 inches inches of snow and sleet. With the majority of precip being sleet. That would be one epic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Based off of that map I bet we could get 4-6 inches inches of snow and sleet. With the majority of precip being sleet. That would be one epic storm. I think we may get a decent front-end thump of snow, too. It is interesting because 850s are really cold (like -10C) when the precip moves in initially, so it might be high-ratio powder at first. I don't think we'll see much freezing rain here at this point, so I think a 3-6" call for snow/sleet might work out, depending on QPF. Maybe 2-4" as I'm usually too optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Robert has been incredibly silent on this whole storm...at least on his Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 .5 QPF max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This system is boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Robert has been incredibly silent on this whole storm...at least on his Facebook page. He used to post on here some. Sad that he doesn't anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think we may get a decent front-end thump of snow, too. It is interesting because 850s are really cold (like -10C) when the precip moves in initially, so it might be high-ratio powder ar first. Sorry for this basic question but what is causing the wedge to erode so quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like Feb.1994 a little. CLT had freezing rain at 28,RAH at 25. That was a top 5 ice storm in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Crippling ice storm, power probably out for days, then single digit lows? Fierce suckage. Ive got a flight scheduled for Tuesday, sure it wont go. I might try and get on one tomorrow....but i really dont want to leave my house unoccupied with this **** going on. this sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sorry for this basic question but what is causing the wedge to erode so quickly? I don't think it is eroding that fast. What are you referring to specifically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 interesting map from wpc http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif That straight up looks like a Wilkesdud map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think it is eroding that fast. What are you referring to specifically? As to why 850's are warming from the -10c at the onset of precip and going up to +1c in the middle of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 .5 QPF max. Agree, always cut the NAM in atleast half. GFS/Euro is roughly 0.5" QPF, that's probably reasonable, maybe less. This shouldn't be that big a deal, 0.5" QPF with a little snow, a little sleet and a little freezing rain. To get big freezing rain issues you need more QPF. For example, the big Dec 4-5, 2002 freezing rain event we had almost 1.5" of QPF that went to freezing rain. Also, when the SLP does transfer to the coast, the precip will dry up, the models won't predict that very well, we have been miller b'd many times. Good reason RAH just went with the SWS for us, they will move to an advisory probably by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think it is eroding that fast. What are you referring to specifically?I think he's confused. There's no real wedge, so there's not much to erode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As to why 850's are warming from the -10c at the onset of precip and going up to +1c in the middle of the storm. Oh...I wouldn't say that's eroding the wedge. This is a Miller B type system. That ALWAYS brings a warm nose. Very typical for these types of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I hope the GFS sends this thing to Detroit or Miami. This system can just die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Its not that it erodes so quickly but with insitu it appears it's the shortest lived version of cad... This was really informative if you get a chance check it out;http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/030/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Oh...I wouldn't say that's eroding the wedge. This is a Miller B type system. That ALWAYS brings a warm nose. Very typical for these types of systems. Okay thanks for the clarification. Starting to understand this a little bit.haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think he's confused. There's no real wedge, so there's not much to erode. I think there's a wedge...just no wedging. But I get what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Okay thanks for the clarification. Starting to understand this a little bit.haha NP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just to an example of what we can expect, Jan 29/2005, GSO had about 0.6" of precip which resulted in 1" of snow and 0.25" of freezing rain. About what we, RDU, can expect, unless the cold does get eroded faster. I don't remember the last winter storm we ever had where we said the models were to warm, usually it's the models are 1-2F to cold. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20050130.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 I can't believe I'm sitting at 41 !!?? Coldest air in 25 years, massive arctic attack! Don't know how anybody can survive out side ! It's like metal left his door open to hell and the heat is funneling up here! I can't even get an ice storm! Really think it was a mistake to put me under a WSW ! I guess it's easier to go worse case scenario, than to go advisory and up to warning as precip unfolds!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's 28 here, which is very rare for mid-February with full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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