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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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If it played out and I got 14 and I'm flanked by 30 inch amounts, that's a fair melt imo

You know what it comes down to, Someone that is NOT in your location sees things from Their perspective and not yours and acts like their perspective should be yours.

 

We see it when Powderfreak simply comments that he thinks there will be a significant drop off in N VT (compared to the rest of us) (in other storms) and coastal says to him "you'll be fine".  From Scott's perspective if he's raining and PF sees 7" (regardless if 50 miles SE sees 18" he's fine. That perspective can border on pointless from powder freak's shoes even thou you can sort of bend your mind around and see it and usually be like "ok" I get it.

 

So I think you make a very fair point that if you are flanked by 30 inch amounts and you have 14, you can certainly melt.

 

There is thou the added perspective in this storm that nobody (including you)  was getting jack 4 days ago, and that should be weighed into YOUR  current perspective and give you a option for a positive spin on this storm almost regardless of what happens. Some people weigh this more but usually there is a mix of the two, I think anyone would be lying if they got 15" and they were watching radar in the storm and areas on each side (say about 25 miles ) had double but most don't voice it that much because, especially in a situ like this , remember you had nada forecast 14 days ago and well most people like to think positive in life.  

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Albany almost never gets over 20".  We seem to often hit an 18" wall with the "big storms."  We average a 20"+ storm about every 14 years.  You guys closer to the coast get some rocking storms!  I'm just hoping for 6"+ here.  Often with these SNE jackpot storms we get shafted.  Hopefully we don't get subsidence city from a death band to our east.  Spread the wealth.........but whatever happens, it is what is is.  

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You know what it comes down to, Someone that is NOT in your location sees things from Their perspective and not yours and acts like their perspective should be yours.

We see it when Powderfreak simply comments that he thinks there will be a significant drop off in N VT (compared to the rest of us) (in other storms) and coastal says to him "you'll be fine". From Scott's perspective if he's raining and PF sees 7" (regardless if 50 miles SE sees 18" he's fine. Obviously that perspective is pointless from powder freak's shoes even thou you can sort of bend your mind around and see it and usually be like "ok" I get it.

So I think you make a very fair point that if you are flanked by 30 inch amounts and you have 14, you can certainly melt.

There is thou the added perspective in this storm that nobody (including you) was getting jack 4 days ago, and that should be weighed into YOUR current perspective and give you a option for a positive spin on this storm almost regardless of what happens. Some people weigh this more but usually there is a mix of the two, I think anyone would be lying if they got 15" and they were watching radar in the storm and areas on each side (say about 25 miles ) had double but most don't voice it that much because, especially in a situ like this , remember you had nada forecast 14 days ago and well most people like to think positive in life.

I'm pumped for the storm, just throwing out some legit red flags for metro boston. It'd well modeled on almost all guidance
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As this winds down, and everyone switches over to giving updates about what's really going on, I'm curious.

 

All of these models you guys talk about, and which is better or worse... Are they getting better in general? I would imagine that as they "learn" more about what's really happened in the past, and they incorporate that knowledge into new models, they'd get better and start aligning more closely.

 

Do the models "learn"? If they haven't been good at adapting or accounting for some odd shift in the atmosphere--or whatever--in the past, are they able to learn from those mistakes?

 

Like all technology, even when they seems to be dealing with some level of chaos type theory for things brewing far in the distance, will they just get better and better to the point of knowing exactly what will happen weeks from a given point?

 

Just curious. We're hunkering down.

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Albany almost never gets over 20".  We seem to often hit an 18" wall with the "big storms."  We average a 20"+ storm about every 14 years.  You guys closer to the coast get some rocking storms!  I'm just hoping for 6"+ here.  Often with these SNE jackpot storms we get shafted.  Hopefully we don't get subsidence city from a death band to our east.  Spread the wealth.........but whatever happens, it is what is is.  

 

Yeah, know how it is, grew up in Guilderland not far from Slingerlands, and even in our berserker winter of 70-71 we just had a ton of 8-14" snowstorms, no real blockbusters. Of course, Dec 69 was somewhat different:-)

 

OTOH, snow comes earlier and stays a lot longer in ALB and its environs than in the Boston coastal plain, so there's that.

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OES is a wild card today. You can see it esp in Essex county now. 

Hi Res Nam I thought hit the timing of this initial stuff very well. Had S Shore getting it 14-15z so not bad

 

Scott you gotta be excited out of your mind. I mean you are going to do Very well.

 

Scott one thing nobody has talked much about (except Ginxy)  is those INSANE 850 Wind anomalies....is this going to really enhance snowfall along the coast , or not so much

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Hi Res Nam I thought hit the timing of this initial stuff very well. Had S Shore getting it 14-15z so not bad

 

Scott you gotta be excited out of your mind. I mean you are going to do Very well.

 

Scott one thing nobody has talked much about (except Ginxy)  is those INSANE 850 Wind anomalies....is this going to really enhance snowfall along the coast , or not so much

 

Moisture transport at 850 with temps below -8C will help with flake production. Add some frictional convergence too.

 

I am excited, but upset at working. Nothing you can do though...and I'm not even dealing with the northeast today. But, I am from the sidelines..lol.

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Yeah, just all around a sweet look on them from 500mb to the SLP.  Snow Probs are thru the roof.

I always thought last night was unrealistically small on snow for NYC with the upper air features developing where they were. A closed off 500mb low over ACY is just about the best calling card there is for a big time NYC snow event. Models were favoring the heavy convection too much and jumping the center east. 

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