Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 24.6 I'll take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If it played out and I got 14 and I'm flanked by 30 inch amounts, that's a fair melt imo You know what it comes down to, Someone that is NOT in your location sees things from Their perspective and not yours and acts like their perspective should be yours. We see it when Powderfreak simply comments that he thinks there will be a significant drop off in N VT (compared to the rest of us) (in other storms) and coastal says to him "you'll be fine". From Scott's perspective if he's raining and PF sees 7" (regardless if 50 miles SE sees 18" he's fine. That perspective can border on pointless from powder freak's shoes even thou you can sort of bend your mind around and see it and usually be like "ok" I get it. So I think you make a very fair point that if you are flanked by 30 inch amounts and you have 14, you can certainly melt. There is thou the added perspective in this storm that nobody (including you) was getting jack 4 days ago, and that should be weighed into YOUR current perspective and give you a option for a positive spin on this storm almost regardless of what happens. Some people weigh this more but usually there is a mix of the two, I think anyone would be lying if they got 15" and they were watching radar in the storm and areas on each side (say about 25 miles ) had double but most don't voice it that much because, especially in a situ like this , remember you had nada forecast 14 days ago and well most people like to think positive in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Outside the region folks who have never experienced a true blizzard on the coast, our Scotts have room at the Inn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Albany almost never gets over 20". We seem to often hit an 18" wall with the "big storms." We average a 20"+ storm about every 14 years. You guys closer to the coast get some rocking storms! I'm just hoping for 6"+ here. Often with these SNE jackpot storms we get shafted. Hopefully we don't get subsidence city from a death band to our east. Spread the wealth.........but whatever happens, it is what is is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You know what it comes down to, Someone that is NOT in your location sees things from Their perspective and not yours and acts like their perspective should be yours. We see it when Powderfreak simply comments that he thinks there will be a significant drop off in N VT (compared to the rest of us) (in other storms) and coastal says to him "you'll be fine". From Scott's perspective if he's raining and PF sees 7" (regardless if 50 miles SE sees 18" he's fine. Obviously that perspective is pointless from powder freak's shoes even thou you can sort of bend your mind around and see it and usually be like "ok" I get it. So I think you make a very fair point that if you are flanked by 30 inch amounts and you have 14, you can certainly melt. There is thou the added perspective in this storm that nobody (including you) was getting jack 4 days ago, and that should be weighed into YOUR current perspective and give you a option for a positive spin on this storm almost regardless of what happens. Some people weigh this more but usually there is a mix of the two, I think anyone would be lying if they got 15" and they were watching radar in the storm and areas on each side (say about 25 miles ) had double but most don't voice it that much because, especially in a situ like this , remember you had nada forecast 14 days ago and well most people like to think positive in life. I'm pumped for the storm, just throwing out some legit red flags for metro boston. It'd well modeled on almost all guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If it played out and I got 14 and I'm flanked by 30 inch amounts, that's a fair melt imo Haha, I'm with you, buddy. That would be tough to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think the Lindsay storm gave BOS like a foot bit areas in the region got 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 OES is a wild card today. You can see it esp in Essex county now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerTeacher Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 As this winds down, and everyone switches over to giving updates about what's really going on, I'm curious. All of these models you guys talk about, and which is better or worse... Are they getting better in general? I would imagine that as they "learn" more about what's really happened in the past, and they incorporate that knowledge into new models, they'd get better and start aligning more closely. Do the models "learn"? If they haven't been good at adapting or accounting for some odd shift in the atmosphere--or whatever--in the past, are they able to learn from those mistakes? Like all technology, even when they seems to be dealing with some level of chaos type theory for things brewing far in the distance, will they just get better and better to the point of knowing exactly what will happen weeks from a given point? Just curious. We're hunkering down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So how's the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanInWayland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Albany almost never gets over 20". We seem to often hit an 18" wall with the "big storms." We average a 20"+ storm about every 14 years. You guys closer to the coast get some rocking storms! I'm just hoping for 6"+ here. Often with these SNE jackpot storms we get shafted. Hopefully we don't get subsidence city from a death band to our east. Spread the wealth.........but whatever happens, it is what is is. Yeah, know how it is, grew up in Guilderland not far from Slingerlands, and even in our berserker winter of 70-71 we just had a ton of 8-14" snowstorms, no real blockbusters. Of course, Dec 69 was somewhat different:-) OTOH, snow comes earlier and stays a lot longer in ALB and its environs than in the Boston coastal plain, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 OES is a wild card today. You can see it esp in Essex county now. Hi Res Nam I thought hit the timing of this initial stuff very well. Had S Shore getting it 14-15z so not bad Scott you gotta be excited out of your mind. I mean you are going to do Very well. Scott one thing nobody has talked much about (except Ginxy) is those INSANE 850 Wind anomalies....is this going to really enhance snowfall along the coast , or not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Hi Res Nam I thought hit the timing of this initial stuff very well. Had S Shore getting it 14-15z so not bad Scott you gotta be excited out of your mind. I mean you are going to do Very well. Scott one thing nobody has talked much about (except Ginxy) is those INSANE 850 Wind anomalies....is this going to really enhance snowfall along the coast , or not so much Moisture transport at 850 with temps below -8C will help with flake production. Add some frictional convergence too. I am excited, but upset at working. Nothing you can do though...and I'm not even dealing with the northeast today. But, I am from the sidelines..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 09z SREFs thru 54h. ME still getting some but storm is basically over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Do we see the fire hose effect somewhere like we had with the 2013 storm in Hamden and South Eastern CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 SREFs were sweet for the Lakes Region. NAM looks pretty good so far. Nice for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NYC/E NJ crushed 18-21hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 dude I mean dude can you believe this epicosity, I mean wow Unbelievable. Need to get the generator gassed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 SREFs were sweet for the Lakes Region. NAM looks pretty good so far. Nice for NYC. Yeah, just all around a sweet look on them from 500mb to the SLP. Snow Probs are thru the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 SREFs are juicy. 24" average at PWM. Even excluding the ARW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah, just all around a sweet look on them from 500mb to the SLP. Snow Probs are thru the roof. I always thought last night was unrealistically small on snow for NYC with the upper air features developing where they were. A closed off 500mb low over ACY is just about the best calling card there is for a big time NYC snow event. Models were favoring the heavy convection too much and jumping the center east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sref plume mean of 30 inches for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM has a SE MA jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 nam shifts west again asout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM just wants to sucker hole NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Good lord Almighty. SW CT/NYC/LI crushed on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like the deformation will make it to NYC-W MA-C NH this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z Nam just puked, Closed off further SW, dropped qpf a bit over a fairly wide area, This model is unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sweet Jesus 48"+ over Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Only piece of guidance that far west.. I'm glad it's the nam lol. What trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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