Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[40/70 Benchmark]

fast moving with 18" possible is an oxymoron

I got about 15" in Dec 2005. 

[moneypitmike]

The Reader's Digest version of the 2014-2015 winter:

 

A TRACK FURTHER EAST WOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER RISK FOR WET SNOW
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WOULD SEE
LESS SNOW AND POSSIBLY A COMPLETE SHUT OUT IN NORTHWEST
MASSACHUSETTS.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Than you Don for the QPF list

 

Some parts of SE Mass look to get buried.  Still worried about a job east to save my bacon.  Blocking would be sweet, but whatevs

 

Winter is saved!

[TalcottWx]

I got about 15" in Dec 2005.

rare, but possible.

[powderfreak]

The Reader's Digest version of the 2014-2015 winter:

A TRACK FURTHER EAST WOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER RISK FOR WET SNOW

ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WOULD SEE

LESS SNOW AND POSSIBLY A COMPLETE SHUT OUT IN NORTHWEST

MASSACHUSETTS.

Part of me wants you to debbie your way to a deform band because the posts from 40/70 would be epically entertaining lol.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Part of me wants you to debbie your way to a deform band because the posts from 40/70 would be epically entertaining lol.

If an interior weenie gets more than Wilmington there might be a nuclear meltdown

I doc think this is a SE event

Foxboro/ Dedham area

[Zeus]

The Reader's Digest version of the 2014-2015 winter:

 

A TRACK FURTHER EAST WOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER RISK FOR WET SNOW

ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WOULD SEE

LESS SNOW AND POSSIBLY A COMPLETE SHUT OUT IN NORTHWEST

MASSACHUSETTS.

 

When the bus swings by, I'm going to personally nail your tail back into your ass.

[Ginx snewx]

Going to play Scooter here, don't spike any deflated footballs, multiple things can go wrong including greatly reduced intensity which would cause a great deal more BL issues. Some fantastic runs today but hold off on the congrats. Some of you are already nearing epic meltdowns or have completed them already, would hate to see you in the abyss when this pattern goes bonkers.

[Randy4Confluence]

 I've been calling for a huge comeback, but that never stops me from melting.

It's therapeutic.

Ha, ha yeah, I was doing well until the Boston Massacre on Sunday. That one really got to me.

Good call btw.

 

These models, particularly the GFS can really put people like us in the hospital with the games it plays with storms jumping out of bushes, and hocus-pocus stuff.

 

Good luck

[Zeus]

Going to play Scooter here, don't spike any deflated footballs, multiple things can go wrong including greatly reduced intensity which would cause a great deal more BL issues. Some fantastic runs today but hold off on the congrats. Some of you are already nearing epic meltdowns or have completed them already, would hate to see you in the abyss when this pattern goes bonkers.

 

Absolutely. Weaker could mean BL issues for many. A scraper or whiff could result from a track that bumps not too far east (look at the posters from the western fringe of the area gettin' salty about the cutoff).

[Cyclone-68]

Is it plausible in the current weather regime we've been in to get a storm to bomb out at our latitude like that this weekend?

[Baroclinic Zone]

I imagine the tightness is tied at least in part to how wound up it's currently modeled?

 

 

LOL.

 

Congrats to where people live.  Give me a 75 mile bump west otherwise, Chris and I may be posting pictures of dim sun poking through a few clouds.

Didn't see this response coming.

[Ginx snewx]

Is it plausible in the current weather regime we've been in to get a storm to bomb out at our latitude like that this weekend?

the past does not predict the future

[CoastalWx]

Looks like ensembles are similar to the op.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The Reader's Digest version of the 2014-2015 winter:

 

A TRACK FURTHER EAST WOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER RISK FOR WET SNOW

ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WOULD SEE

LESS SNOW AND POSSIBLY A COMPLETE SHUT OUT IN NORTHWEST

MASSACHUSETTS.

 

 

Than you Don for the QPF list

 

Some parts of SE Mass look to get buried.  Still worried about a job east to save my bacon.  Blocking would be sweet, but whatevs

 

Winter is saved!

Couple more posts I didn't see coming.

[Zeus]

Looks like ensembles are similar to the op.

 

How's the agreement re: strength?

[TheSnowman]

I just left for LA Last night and I'll be back Tuesday. I'm Praying to the ends of the earth that this is a dud. I Will Not be able to handle 2 1/2 months of the worst winter of my life and then I leave for a week and a 15" storm hits. A foot is bad enough but I Live for the 15"era. GFS still doesn't have it.

[SnowMan]

Didn't see this response coming.

Yet it doesn't get deleted.  However, I post congrats to those down south and it get deleted.  I guess I should have added that I wish was it 75 miles closer too....

[CoastalWx]

How's the agreement re: strength?

 

Pretty good, 970s east of ACK which is good for a mean. 

[Zeus]

I just left for LA Last night and I'll be back Tuesday. I'm Praying to the ends of the earth that this is a dud. I Will Not be able to handle 2 1/2 months of the worst winter of my life and then I leave for a week and a 15" storm hits. A foot is bad enough but I Live for the 15"era. GFS still doesn't have it.

 

I hope it hits, not because I want snow, but because I have no direct way of punishing you for the way you capitalize **** at random.

[Ginx snewx]

Looks like ensembles are similar to the op.

[SR Airglow]

Hires UKMET off WxBell is still way pretty far OTS and is basically a whiff for everyone. Maybe an inch or two south of BOS.

[eekuasepinniW]

Hoping for a cutter with a Detroit jackpot.

[CoastalWx]

Crazy Uncle Ukie. Although, you still can't rule out shifts here and there.

[Zeus]

Pretty good, 970s east of ACK which is good for a mean. 

 

One would assume there'd be some upper 960's-ish carrots in that stew. Placement sounds nice; usually most wouldn't want it so close but given the tightness, I suppose there isn't better to ask for.

 

We've got, what, four or five Euro runs left before things are relatively upon us?

 

00z tonight

12z tomorrow

00z tomorrow night

12z Friday

[Damage In Tolland]

Ryan says possible rain to Berks

[CoastalWx]

One would assume there'd be some upper 960's-ish carrots in that stew. Placement sounds nice; usually most wouldn't want it so close but given the tightness, I suppose there isn't better to ask for.

 

We've got, what, four or five Euro runs left before things are relatively upon us?

 

00z tonight

12z tomorrow

00z tomorrow night

12z Friday

 

Well we seem to have really come to agreement of a track except for the GFS, so my guess is by the same time tomorrow..we should be close to locking some details in. Obviously things like any rain/snow line or QPF cutoff probably need a bit more time.

[CT Rain]

There are a lot of members (I'd say the biggest cluster) west of the ensemble mean. I would say that's a big red flag for many in SNE with such a hideous setup to our north. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

There are a lot of members (I'd say the biggest cluster) west of the ensemble mean. I would say that's a big red flag for many in SNE with such a hideous setup to our north.

We dont like what you're trying to tell us.

[Zeus]

Well we seem to have really come to agreement of a track except for the GFS, so my guess is by the same time tomorrow..we should be close to locking some details in. Obviously things like any rain/snow line or QPF cutoff probably need a bit more time.

 

The Euro agreeing with its ensembles and, what, the Canadian? Sort of the NAM (with a nod to this not being a timeframe where the NAM is its "best"). The GFS is still doing its own thing and it sounds like the Ukie as well (though I haven't seen that myself yet).

 

I'd say there's whiff-wiggle and with what Ryan just said about the ens, maybe wet wiggle as well.