Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[CT Rain]

I wouldn't be surprised if SE CT does pretty well. It's all about where that CCB sets up to cool the 775-900 mb layer. 

[TalcottWx]

6" is low end warning.

At least warning imho Ray.

good this storm will have wetter snow. Lay down the glacial ice pack.

[ineedsnow]

I think 3 to 5 is a safe bet here 5 to 9 from kev to will 3 to 5 just east of there and 2 to 4 on the cape

[jamesnichols89]

I would take 2-4" 

[CT Valley Snowman]

BAF,CEF, BDL, HFD region will probably end up with more of a 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 advisory type event unless that CCB can develop sooner and expand westward .

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro's 5-9" for you verbatim.

Not sure it's done trending...coming to a consesus. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

At least warning imho Ray.

good this storm will have wetter snow. Lay down the glacial ice pack.

I'm not b*tching. 

Nice event

...I guess 4-8"...3-6" maybe too low.\

We'll see.

[CT Valley Snowman]

I'm not necessarily sold on a Kevin to Will jackpot I think it could be further east if the trends on today's modeling verifies.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The EURO looks meager at best for NW MA, Not that we were really expecting much anyway.

Best of luck to Eastern weenies, my big concern for you guys is it comes in weaker than models.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'm not necessarily sold on a Kevin to Will jackpot I think it could be further east if the trends on today's modeling verifies.

What sucks about a setup like this is that It is hard to be confident when a small tick East and a small tick weaker makes a huge difference for some.

[TalcottWx]

I'm not b*tching.

Nice event

...I guess 4-8"...3-6" maybe too low.\

We'll see.

It's about that ccb. Truth is we can't place it yet.

Can't believe some were worried about a canadien/nam consensus solution versus euro (b4 12z came out)

[ORH_wxman]

What sucks about a setup like this is that It is hard to be confident when a small tick East and a small tick weaker makes a huge difference for some.

 

 

Definition of thread-the-needle...small ticks in strength/track have large implications for sensible wx. Compare that to some storms where a 30-40 mile track doesn't make that big of a difference...maybe puts a weenie deformation band over another town, but everyone still gets warning snowfall.

[TalcottWx]

My big concern is this scoots further east than forecast and doesn't amplify fast enough in this progressive pattern. That's really been the worry since day 1. Hopefully it keeps looking positive.

[ORH_wxman]

My big concern is this scoots further east than forecast and doesn't amplify fast enough in this progressive pattern. That's really been the worry since day 1. Hopefully it keeps looking positive.

 

 

Yep...I've always had the mindset in this system that there's more ways for this to go east than to go west. Some were worried about a trend too far NW yesterday...but the reality is that there really wasn't much room to go NW. It would take a perfect phase of energy which now looks very unlikely.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm not necessarily sold on a Kevin to Will jackpot I think it could be further east if the trends on today's modeling verifies.

Who really cares about who jackpots. That's not important. It's a region wide 4-8..Some see 4..some see 6.. some see 8..some lucky person sees 10. It's snow.. and it's the beginning of winter on Jan 24

[Ginx snewx]

At least warning imho Ray.

good this storm will have wetter snow. Lay down the glacial ice pack.

no treble

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z EURO has a nice look for SE MA too in the Brockton/Foxboro area.  Looks like a burst of WAA on the front with a period of rain followed by the CCB.

[HoarfrostHubb]

No blocking, no high to the NW, marginal airmass.   3 flags, but it should still give some peeps plowable.

 

If any of those were better it would be a widespread good time

[CoastalWx]

Yep...I've always had the mindset in this system that there's more ways for this to go east than to go west. Some were worried about a trend too far NW yesterday...but the reality is that there really wasn't much room to go NW. It would take a perfect phase of energy which now looks very unlikely.

 

Well OTS isn't gonna happen, but a 30-50 mile wide shuffle as of yesterday was certainly there. I don't think there was the chance for this to go into PVD or anything. That 30-50 was and is critical, as well as intensity. 

[quizplz]

That's true, but I spent the first 18 years of my life on the NJ shore. I can say with relative certainty that ground temps were very rarely cold enough to freeze rain, and when they were, the precip was usually snow. It's just a rare combo, is all. Not impossible, just extremely rare.

Hence the reason for the horrible accidents on the NJ turnpike etc...

[J Paul Gordon]

Sorry. Posted on wrong page, moved here. 

 

Anyone risking snowfall maps at this point? Are they even worth it?

 

Have a wedding that day.... Taunton has me at 6-8. In the event it actually happened, when will it be hitting hardest?

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/box/stormtotalsnow

 

Is Monday looking more like the real deal?

[Damage In Tolland]

Anyone risking snowfall maps at this point? Are they even worth it?

This is like your 3rd post debby ing this. Take Ri, Ct,Ma.. Throw 4-8 in the middle for all 3. There's your map

[BlizzardHunter]

This is like your 3rd post debby ing this. Take Ri, Ct,Ma.. Throw 4-8 in the middle for all 3. There's your map

What does that mean. What are weanies as well? All this lingo. 

[TalcottWx]

Anyone risking snowfall maps at this point? Are they even worth it?

too early

[JC-CT]

What does that mean. What are weanies as well? All this lingo. 

 

Debbie downer? SNL? General lexicon?

 

Weenies is less self-apparent.

[HoarfrostHubb]

What does that mean. What are weanies as well? All this lingo. 

A is what Kevin tends to be.  Gets all wound up over things and lets his enthusiasm cloud his intelligence.

 

A Debbie is a "Debbie Downer" and is what Ryan tends to be to temper the s   Yin for Yang

[J Paul Gordon]

This is like your 3rd post debby ing this. Take Ri, Ct,Ma.. Throw 4-8 in the middle for all 3. There's your map

If it is my third one, someone is posting for me. Or, my dementia is really moving faster than I would have thought possible (started when I was about 4)

[Damage In Tolland]

too early

Lol. Too early?? It's 36 hours till stArt time. We've honed in final solutions this afternoon

[CoastalWx]

What is going on? There isn't anything to argue. Best is probably metro west and NE MA. ORH and TOl will do fine as well. 

[Damage In Tolland]

What is going on? There isn't anything to argue. Best is probably metro west and NE MA. ORH and TOl will do fine as well.

Right. This one is signed and sealed. Delivery enroute