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January 2015 Pattern Discussion


CapturedNature

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Think we might go the whole winter without a coastal?

No because there's already been at least two.

Thanksgiving system, and the big multi day cut-off in early December were both east coast coastal water storms.

Figure4.PNG

If what you are thinking of is an 18-inch 22-degree wind-whipped powder coastal storm, then yes those don't grow on trees so we could go all winter without one of those.

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If what you are thinking of is an 18-inch 22-degree wind-whipped powder coastal storm, then yes those don't grow on trees so we could go all winter without one of those.

Lol...we could go a lot longer than one winter without one of those.

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I guess we could say not dead yet but on life support.  From HPC:

 

FOR UPR TROUGHING HEADING INTO THE EAST AND PSBLY GENERATING A SFC
SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK... THERE APPEAR TO BE
TWO KEY PARTS OF THE FCST THAT REQUIRE MONITORING. THESE WOULD BE
HOW THE ENERGY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AS OF EARLY TUE ELONGATES
INTO WED AND HOW NRN STREAM SHRTWV ENERGY OVER THE NERN PAC/WRN
CANADA AS OF TUE INTERACTS WITH THE EJECTING WRN FEATURE OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE COMBINED
ASPECTS OF THIS EVOLUTION APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO REQUIRE
MULTIPLE FUTURE RUNS BEFORE GAINING CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR
SOLN. TRENDS IN THE FULL GUIDANCE MEAN CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARD A
MORE OFFSHORE SFC DEVELOPMENT THAN SEEN IN SOME EARLIER SOLNS
ESPECIALLY THOSE FROM THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. A MORE SUPPRESSED
SFC PATTERN LEADING UP TO THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
THAT TREND. HOWEVER AS OF 12Z THU ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF 12Z
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED FROM THE WRN SIDE OF THE SFC
LOW ENVELOPE AND THERE IS PLENTY OF ROOM FOR MID LVL ENERGY TO
EVOLVE/INTERACT DIFFERENTLY FROM HOW IT IS CURRENTLY FCST.
OVERALL A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERSION OF AN 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEAN
COMPROMISE OFFERS THE BEST INTERMEDIATE SOLN AMONG LATEST GUIDANCE.

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No because there's already been at least two.

Thanksgiving system, and the big multi day cut-off in early December were both east coast coastal water storms.Figure4.PNG

If what you are thinking of is an 18-inch 22-degree wind-whipped powder coastal storm, then yes those don't grow on trees so we could go all winter without one of those.

Whoops, for some reason I thought that was a swfe. I meant a coastal where everyone' gets 6" or a but more, you know nothing crazy, just a run of the mill snowstorm.
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End of the week is a goner. That has 0 chance of coming north.The winter without a coastal continues

End of the week is a goner. That has 0 chance of coming north.The winter without a coastal continues

Please, 2011 or 2012 I didn't even have a frost at my house the entire winter; you've had a couple of small events thus far and last winter we started late January into February. Plenty of time left

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Through 1/9/15:

BOS: -3.4

BDL: -2.7

ORH: -2.2

PVD: -3.5

The beast to the east ain't rising like yeast.....

By mid month, all 4 sites should add significantly to those departures.

 

ORH will go down too post-ad...I emailed with BOX and they said replaced the sensor at ORH yesterday which had bogus highs on 1/7 and 1/8 and the F6 data wil be adjusted.

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It's rather disappointing that we couldn't mute the torch heading our way or capitalize on our chances as things reshuffled this past week. We had a couple light,garbage events but it hasn't really satisfied anyone. Ensembles do look better after a warm up so it appears a warmer pattern is transient. Hopefully things can deliver on the back end heading into the last week of January or around then.

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There is pretty darn good agreement on all sets of ensemble guidance that we gain a +PNA/-EPO pattern after the mild few days near MLK day.

 

The +PNA is what we will want to root for because that allows shortwaves to amplify much better and thus, your chances of a more significant coastal system is better versus some of these meat-grinder events....it also helps lessen the chance of a cutter, though it certainly doesn't make it a lock, especially with a still positive NAO. But you reduce the space in the wavelengths available for a cutter when you have a nice PNA ridge.

 

At any rate, we will see how this looks going forward, but we will return to seasonal cold I think, and perhaps more intense cold beyond trying to extrapolate (dangeorus I know)

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It's rather disappointing that we couldn't mute the torch heading our way or capitalize on our chances as things reshuffled this past week. We had a couple light,garbage events but it hasn't really satisfied anyone. Ensembles do look better after a warm up so it appears a warmer pattern is transient. Hopefully things can deliver on the back end heading into the last week of January or around then.

Didnt see anything this afternoon that shows torch. No cutter either. Couple days in the 40's is nbd
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Seems like nothing really on the horizon.  As I am understanding it, given the limited discussion these days, we have a cold week with the overrunning and then a well offshore storm.  We gradually modify towards and over the weekend.  I am assuming by next Monday we are warming up and there is an eastern ridge.  What happens next I guess is the question.  Maybe we get back into winter in 10 days or so if the PNA builds and a shortwave dives in?  Or perhaps more likely, as the pattern evolves a storm forms over the SW or middle of the country and cuts up to southern Quebec, bringing down a cold front in its wake.  The PNA spikes and maybe we get something by about the 25th in terms of a storm.  Any guesses on the date of another period of winter?

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Seems like nothing really on the horizon.  As I am understanding it, given the limited discussion these days, we have a cold week with the overrunning and then a well offshore storm.  We gradually modify towards and over the weekend.  I am assuming by next Monday we are warming up and there is an eastern ridge.  What happens next I guess is the question.  Maybe we get back into winter in 10 days or so if the PNA builds and a shortwave dives in?  Or perhaps more likely, as the pattern evolves a storm forms over the SW or middle of the country and cuts up to southern Quebec, bringing down a cold front in its wake.  The PNA spikes and maybe we get something by about the 25th in terms of a storm.  Any guesses on the date of another period of winter?

 

I could see something MLK day or so. After that, we get cold again and hopefully snowier.

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The op Euro looks a whole lot nicer than the Euro Ens D8-D10. EPS has 850s nearly +10 over climo by 00z Tuesday while the op has plenty of cold nearby. 

 

I do think we get at least a bit of a torch... but the pattern by the end of MLK week seems to turn the corner a bit with the -EPO/+PNA pattern that Will mentioned. 

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Seems like nothing really on the horizon. As I am understanding it, given the limited discussion these days, we have a cold week with the overrunning and then a well offshore storm. We gradually modify towards and over the weekend. I am assuming by next Monday we are warming up and there is an eastern ridge. What happens next I guess is the question. Maybe we get back into winter in 10 days or so if the PNA builds and a shortwave dives in? Or perhaps more likely, as the pattern evolves a storm forms over the SW or middle of the country and cuts up to southern Quebec, bringing down a cold front in its wake. The PNA spikes and maybe we get something by about the 25th in terms of a storm. Any guesses on the date of another period of winter?

Boring until about the 22nd, looks to me like we start seeing some real storms after the 22-24th period and it continues mostly cold and stormy right into February.

I think all and all it will play out maybe a week later than would be normal/what's as expected by guys like Cohen.

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Boring until about the 22nd, looks to me like we start seeing some real storms after the 22-24th period and it continues mostly cold and stormy right into February.

I think all and all it will play out maybe a week later than would be normal/what's as expected by guys like Cohen.

Thanks for the response.  Given what a disappointment it has been so far, I am also optimistic for a strong finish.  I'll be in Savannah the entire month of Feb though, so I am hoping for no Morch.

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Thanks for the response. Given what a disappointment it has been so far, I am also optimistic for a strong finish. I'll be in Savannah the entire month of Feb though, so I am hoping for no Morch.

Issue will be have and have nots. I think we see a situation where either my area or PF misses out in faster moving coastal systems.

I really think the signals are very clear that snow is coming. Fits very well with developing pattern and how the Eurasian weather evolved a little later this year.

Delayed but not denied

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