CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Pattern won'y be good for NYC south but interior northeast and New England Pattern may be fine for everyone if ridging out west is good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Pattern may be fine for everyone if ridging out west is good enough. Yeah we will be hitting the climo bottom of winter over the next few weeks, so folks will have a little room to work with. Even a marginal pattern can deliver wintery weather pretty far south this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yeah we will be hitting the climo bottom of winter over the next few weeks, so folks will have a little room to work with. Even a marginal pattern can deliver wintery weather pretty far south this time of year. We just need some precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yeah the split flow that develops with a +PNA is actually a very good pattern. It produces bootleg pseudo blocks sometimes. (Think PDII in 2003 as an example). I'd really want to see some STJ in there if we get that. Not too overpowering obviously but it's been feeble so far. ughhhh...sadly, we can't expect any help from the "Nino" anytime soon temps keep dropping, to be expected post Christmas Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 26NOV2014 22.4 0.4 25.9 0.9 27.6 1.0 29.5 0.9 03DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9 10DEC2014 22.8 0.2 26.0 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.4 0.9 17DEC2014 22.9 0.1 26.0 0.8 27.4 0.8 29.4 1.0 24DEC2014 23.1-0.2 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.3 0.9 31DEC2014 23.6 0.0 25.9 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.2 0.8 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ughhhh...sadly, we can't expect any help from the "Nino" anytime soon temps keep dropping, to be expected post Christmas Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 26NOV2014 22.4 0.4 25.9 0.9 27.6 1.0 29.5 0.9 03DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9 10DEC2014 22.8 0.2 26.0 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.4 0.9 17DEC2014 22.9 0.1 26.0 0.8 27.4 0.8 29.4 1.0 24DEC2014 23.1-0.2 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.3 0.9 31DEC2014 23.6 0.0 25.9 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.2 0.8 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Will> Nino Lag /Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Will> Nino Lag /Will gotta have a Nino before you get a Nino lag we'll be lucky to get 3 tri-monthlies of .5C or greater at 3.4, and no way we get the required 5 for an official Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 gotta have a Nino before you get a Nino lag we'll be lucky to get 3 tri-monthlies of .5C or greater at 3.4, and no way we get the required 5 for an official Nino I happen to agree but we did have a Nino atmosphere for three weeks. Nino schemino has been my theme since last Marches calls for super Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I happen to agree but we did have a Nino atmosphere for three weeks. Nino schemino has been my theme since last Marches calls for super Nino sadly, flashes of what might have been if there had been a real NINO we should have known better though, as there haven't been any officials Ninos that formed so late as this year per link below except 58/59 58/59 was an official weak Nino that started a month later than this year, but that was beyond a dead ratter down here....can't imagine it was a whole lot better up your way http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Nino flopping may be the reason that the robust outlooks don't work out. It seems to have allowed last year's morning breath to linger. I thought that we'd fine listerine hidden away in the equatorial Pacific cabinet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Nino flopping may be the reason that the robust outlooks don't work out. It seems to have allowed last year's morning breath to linger. I thought that we'd fine listerine hidden away in the equatorial Pacific cabinet.hopefully the split flow and a STJ make a comeback, certainly not throwing in the 90210 towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 It's not that rare to have a below normal season... It happens 50% of the time. We're certainly on that track. If we have a good FEB and march, we're near normal. Let's hope for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 hopefully the split flow and a STJ make a comeback, certainly not throwing in the 90210 towel.I'm just thinking out loud, but if I bust, I can see that being why. In all honesty, if you told me I had to have a r*tter, I'd pick this season, needing rides everywhere and all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I'm just thinking out loud, but if I bust, I can see that being why. In all honesty, if you told me I had to have a r*tter, I'd pick this season, needing rides everywhere and all.... I haven't really looked at the models since right before the Thanksgiving storm. If Monday's threat can become revived in the coming days, I may pay attention. Didn't look too appealing verbatim on the 0z GFS tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I'm just thinking out loud, but if I bust, I can see that being why. In all honesty, if you told me I had to have a r*tter, I'd pick this season, needing rides everywhere and all.... probably right the last year there was a Nino "barely" fail AND an east QBO was 79/80 (though QBO was closer to 0 than this year) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 probably right the last year there was a Nino "barely" fail AND an east QBO was 79/80 (though QBO was closer to 0 than this year) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS ensembles definitely have a noteworthy/noticeable thaw....but then really pump heights back into Alaska and concurrently drop heights out in the SW US. interesting set-up as it also discharges a pretty sizable chunk of arctic air (notable given we are talking well past day 10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 by the end of the run...it's ridge-bridge time...epo to scandanavia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 euro ensembles pretty much the same general look. flow flattens out sometime around MLK day, maybe a cutter around the 20th +/- ....then alaska ridge really re-builds. similar strong look to the gefs for this (extended) time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 euro ensembles pretty much the same general look. flow flattens out sometime around MLK day, maybe a cutter around the 20th +/- ....then alaska ridge really re-builds. similar strong look to the gefs for this (extended) time frame Yeah nice trends on this run wrt bringing the epo back...no rest for the weary though with the nao flipping...pattern forcings would appear to be stepping away from the potential in that window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 PNA looks a lot better than this last cold shot. This would help give a better chance at a coastal rather than meat grinder systems between a SE ridge and PV to the north that has defined this current colder pattern. Sometimes the current pattern can produce juicy SWFEs but we didn't run in into one this time around. Hopefully that PNA look holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Why is DT going off on the football shaped PV and an MJO that wont' go past Phase 6? Last few posts in here sound pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Why is DT going off on the football shaped PV and an MJO that wont' go past Phase 6? Last few posts in here sound pretty good. More importantly, why is his space bar so sticky? I do think he is gearing his negativity more towards the mid Atlantic / NYC, where they have virtually no shot with a AN pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Keep in mind the better look is pretty far out. We are talking day 12-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Keep in mind the better look is pretty far out. We are talking day 12-15. yeah this is last week of January almost that we are looking at. it's pretty much a cool / cold stretch through the end of this upcoming week....then torch (to what extent, not sure, but looks mild)...then step back down from there. and of course, like we always seem to witness, it's rarely a perfect transition back. though later in the winter it can be less noticeable thanks to just climo in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 yeah this is last week of January almost that we are looking at. it's pretty much a cool / cold stretch through the end of this upcoming week....then torch (to what extent, not sure, but looks mild)...then step back down from there. and of course, like we always seem to witness, it's rarely a perfect transition back. though later in the winter it can be less noticeable thanks to just climo in general.no where near anything considered a torch on the 18z GEFS ,my highest surface temp is 36, briefly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 no where near anything considered a torch on the 18z GEFS ,my highest surface temp is 36, briefly Take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Take the over.low level cold,Canadian ENS similar. Doesn't matter as anything after seven day is a crapshoot,just reporting model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 low level cold,Canadian ENS similar. Doesn't matter as anything after seven day is a crapshoot,just reporting model output. I know, but knowing the pattern....I'd be hesitant to think muted 12 hour mild up. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Just had to drop in to comment that yesterday/today/tomorrow is just classic for what you'd expect with a good -EPO but no help from the NAO and no meaningful help from the PNA. Plenty of cold + nickle and dime events but no biggies. Still, less of a gamble than a good -NAO alone or +PNA alone where it can be all or nothing. Looks to me like the -EPO will fall apart as the +PNA finally develops, then the +PNA diminishes as the NAO (possibly) improves. Tough luck, but maybe you guys can get 2 out of 3 in phase by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Think we might go the whole winter without a coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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