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January 2015 Pattern Discussion


CapturedNature

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Most pros have stated that this will probably just be temporary with the heights rising again out west following MLK weekend. IDK, maybe it's bleak, but I still have hope for a winter that can deliver a week's worth of < 32F.

We could definitely have an epic stretch and end up near normal or above, but we're almost banking on that if we go another 2 or 3 weeks without a significant event

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Most pros have stated that this will probably just be temporary with the heights rising again out west following MLK weekend. IDK, maybe it's bleak, but I still have hope for a winter that can deliver a week's worth of < 32F.

It hopefully will be. It's though to say, but if is, we don't know how the pattern after shapes up. The reason why we can't compare this to '11-'12 is because those years were undeniable. Big bad vortex near AK gave the lower 48 a giant Chinook wind. This time around it's just a bunch of little sh"t messing around with things.

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We could definitely have an epic stretch and end up near normal or above, but we're almost banking on that if we go another 2 or 3 weeks without a significant event

Then there is 2 years ago. I think BOS had 10 inches going into the blizzard of 2/8/13. They broke 60 for the season...edit...8.8 going into 2/1. Then the turnaround was spectacular.

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1969 waited until Feb.

Actually, November, 68 was epic, especially in the hillier terrain away from the coast. The storm of November 12, though short lived in its intense phase, brought the most intense blizzard conditions I have ever lived through, with the possible exception of the 78 storm. So the winter of 68/69 just took something of a breather in December and January, then returned in such form in February  that those of us old enough to remember will never forget.

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From Don S yesterday :

"Brief morning update...

1. ENSO conditions remain remarkably similar to those at a similar point in time during winter 2004-05.

2. Some GFS ensemble members are suggesting a large decline in the AO similar to what happened in January 2005.

3. Both the Day 8 and Day 11 GFS ensemble analogs have a date from January 2005."

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From Don S yesterday :

"Brief morning update...

1. ENSO conditions remain remarkably similar to those at a similar point in time during winter 2004-05.

2. Some GFS ensemble members are suggesting a large decline in the AO similar to what happened in January 2005.

3. Both the Day 8 and Day 11 GFS ensemble analogs have a date from January 2005."

This still doesn't preclude a mid-month period of moderation. All will depend on whether the AO dives as it did in 2005. I hope it does.

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No consensus for anything torch worthy or particularly warm. Should be seasonable in the least it looks.

Katodog is reading this thread. I'm very curious if he knows anything paranormal about these upcoming threats.

 

Could be in the dailies, but I think it's nothing long lasting IMO. 

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Feel like those have been all over the place. I don't look regularly, but that's the vibe I've gotten off of posts.

 

Big GOAK trough, we moderate for sure. Just how long is the question. Luckily, it seems like we'll go back to something where we may have higher heights near AK again. Perhaps. 

 

Hopefully next week turns out something, but it also may be offshore.

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I still can't shake the feeling that this winter is going to snap.

 

Yeah, for all the pre-season indicators that were showing positive associations, it would be hard to imagine this whole season going like its been going, especially for coastal folks.  I mean, the collective mass seasonal forecast for this winter was the exact opposite of what has happened so far, lol, so I have to imagine it at least temporarily heads towards what was expected.

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From Don S yesterday :

"Brief morning update...

1. ENSO conditions remain remarkably similar to those at a similar point in time during winter 2004-05.

2. Some GFS ensemble members are suggesting a large decline in the AO similar to what happened in January 2005.

3. Both the Day 8 and Day 11 GFS ensemble analogs have a date from January 2005."

LOL I was going to quote this last night, but was too tired, so was going to do it now....but great weenies weenie alike.
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Yeah, for all the pre-season indicators that were showing positive associations, it would be hard to imagine this whole season going like its been going, especially for coastal folks. I mean, the collective mass seasonal forecast for this winter was the exact opposite of what has happened so far, lol, so I have to imagine it at least temporarily heads towards what was expected.

Alternately you could look at it and say it's holding onto earlier forecasts to some degree that are causing people to hold onto hope that a season this poor to this point doesn't justify.

If one were to have been on a mountain for six months and looked at all data only today the snowy forecasts may not be there.

The flip after MLK holds the key, it either happens or this becomes one more winter where so little snow by 1/1 puts the writing on the wall for an under achieving winter

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The season won't turn around big unless we get a -NAO...most preseason indicators were for a -NAO. But if that doesn't happen, then it will be very tough to make up lost ground. We could still have a decent 2nd half, but it won't be the turnaround like 2013 had unless that NAO flips.

 

I'll tell you what seasonal model has aced this pattern thus far...the Euro SIPS. Back in the autumn it had December as pretty ugly (verified), and then it showed big heights over AK for January-onward...so far so good. Lastly, it had a big +NAO almost all winter (maybe relaxing in February a bit)...it's nailed that too. I didn't think the huge AK ridge with a +NAO was very likely during a Nino, but so far it's happening.

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The season won't turn around big unless we get a -NAO...most preseason indicators were for a -NAO. But if that doesn't happen, then it will be very tough to make up lost ground. We could still have a decent 2nd half, but it won't be the turnaround like 2013 had unless that NAO flips.

 

I'll tell you what seasonal model has aced this pattern thus far...the Euro SIPS. Back in the autumn it had December as pretty ugly (verified), and then it showed big heights over AK for January-onward...so far so good. Lastly, it had a big +NAO almost all winter (maybe relaxing in February a bit)...it's nailed that too. I didn't think the huge AK ridge with a +NAO was very likely during a Nino, but so far it's happening.

 

I was thinking about that the other day. It even had some ugly heights here too. It did well surprisingly. 

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Seems to be a lot of hoping and pipe dreams. It's become apparent we are going to have a +NAO all winter. Folks need to plan on a not so snowy winter . It sucks, just like our summer did.. But persistence is the way to go until proven otherwise

 

I can't wait for another no summer.

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