Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Models bring temps below zero into most of SNE away from the coast Wed night and hold highs 4-7 (single digits) hills on Thursday with low teens valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Euro ensembles definitely look al ot better in the 11-15 day...they've been steadily improving...but don't take it to mean they are awesome either. Nice ridge over the NW territories as Scott said...also the heights just west of there too seem to be rebuilding a bit. Basically a bit more of an east-based -EPO trying to re-establish itself. It's not frigid but plenty cold enough...we don't need -10 anomalies to snow. But the important part is it doesn't look zonal firehose...we get the meridional flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 My favorite sentence from the GYX discussion at the end of the long term discussion: CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UNITED STATES WILLKEEP THE COLD AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION FOR THE FORESEEABLEFUTURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I guess you missed the point when he posted to Scott that the war/se ridge will be of a issue for nyc then Sne. As you guys can get away with it a bit more. Obviously you didn't see it, so you did what you do best and throw a tanturm. Well what I said and Don S seemed to see it too, was that we lose the SE ridge as the PNA tries to go +. Those anomalies in Canada are from the +PNA, but "warm" heights in Canada are still chilly in January. I think the only way it fails, is if a big GOAK trough develops, but I don't see that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I guess you missed the point when he posted to Scott that the war/se ridge will be more of a issue for nyc then Sne. As you guys can get away with it a bit more. Obviously you didn't see it, so you did what you do best and threw a tanturm.The point is and was and until you can understand it I guess .. The SE ridge is gone. It's no longer there for here, NYC or Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Well what I said and Don S seemed to see it too, was that we lose the SE ridge as the PNA tries to go +. Those anomalies in Canada are from the +PNA, but "warm" heights in Canada are still chilly in January. I think the only way it fails, is if a big GOAK trough develops, but I don't see that for now. Agree..and the eps looks even better at 12z. I think we are on the same page on how bluewave was not melting down, just having a disscussion while providing information to back up his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Its too funny that the second the Euro gets better Day 11-15, the Op GFS has a run where it torches the country Day 16...its like the models are just trying to play games with the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Well what I said and Don S seemed to see it too, was that we lose the SE ridge as the PNA tries to go +. Those anomalies in Canada are from the +PNA, but "warm" heights in Canada are still chilly in January. I think the only way it fails, is if a big GOAK trough develops, but I don't see that for now. I agree. I suspect the PNA+ will, at a minimum, blunt the SE ridge. It will be interesting to see how things finally evolve. I'm certainly looking forward to the clipper and shot of Arctic cold afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 GFS bangs out 3 shots of below zero air in the next 16 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Nice Aleutian Low/PNA ridge combo on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Nice Aleutian Low/PNA ridge combo on the GEFS. How bout on the EC ENS? It always makes me uneasy when we have to count on the GEFS delivering the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 ALB starting the first 4 days of Jan way above normal. Nighttime lows the culprit. I think we're going to rapidly reverse that over the coming week. Especially if we can lay down an inch or two of snow from lake effect or the clipper.... and clouds can dissipate at night. Should be the coldest week in 11 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I expect one of the 2 clippers and/or arctic fronts this week to bring a general 2-4 inches across at least parts if not most of New England. They sometimes look anemic and then get a little better. I will be in London until Friday but am wondering about this snippet from HPC referring to Fri-Sat. Does this system look to develop to the northeast given the pattern? FOR DAY 6-7...AN ORGANIZED MID-LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXITTHE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PRODUCE OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATIONALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST---AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THELOWER HALF OF THE MS VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Boy I'll tell ya ... the disconnect between the appeal of operational runs wrt to the GEFs-based PNA teleconnector leaves something to be desired... I haven't seen the CDC update from the 00z run because as is typical, given a reason to suspect their indices page won't be updated, like a holiday within light year ...their intern/grad student in charge of running the product is hung-over and still asleep apparently. But the CPC still has the members clustered and rising. Just that we're not seeing a very good presentation in the operational runs, ...which as they are, has blistering cold followed by a pattern relaxation that doesn't appear destined to anywhere... However, if the phase shift in the PNA rings true, there should be an active mid-month period there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 January thaw MLK weekend? I think eps is hinting at that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 EC kind of meh in the 11-15 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 EC kind of meh in the 11-15 range. I think any change will wait until the 18-22 day range. Just a guess, I'm not anywhere near as technical as all of you just has that look and feel that we will have fun the last week of January into the first week of February. Until then we will need to hope for lucky timing to pop a system or two, or more of Rays favorite events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 EC kind of meh in the 11-15 range. It's on the edge of disaster but it wasn't all out frightening. Maybe some bad days and a return to normal thereafter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 EC kind of meh in the 11-15 range. Maybe a window for something fun around D10 as the PNA ridge pops followed by meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Reminds me of December a bit only a month later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Maybe a window for something fun around D10 as the PNA ridge pops followed by meh? I didn't see the run itself, just an ugly 11-15 day, but at least lower heights in the southeast. So maybe serviceable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This doesn't seem to be a reprise of 11-12. Seems to be much colder at this point. As for cold without snow. I'm enough of a winter purist (and plain cold weather guy) to prefer it over what everyone here calls a "torch". Of course, to each his own. Let's hope the flurries this week come in a little stronger and add a bit more white to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This doesn't seem to be a reprise of 11-12. Seems to be much colder at this point. As for cold without snow. I'm enough of a winter purist (and plain cold weather guy) to prefer it over what everyone here calls a "torch". Of course, to each his own. Let's hope the flurries this week come in a little stronger and add a bit more white to the ground. 1999-2000 is the closest comparison so far, that one turned cold mid January and took 2 weeks til anything meaningful happened, we had a couple of missed chances before it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 1999-2000 is the closest comparison so far, that one turned cold mid January and took 2 weeks til anything meaningful happened, we had a couple of missed chances before it did. Amazing I was thinking this also! A one month deep winter....mid January to mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Amazing I was thinking this also! A one month deep winter....mid January to mid February. I believe we had 2 weeks of solid events down here..then after the Daytona 500 we torched and was over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I believe we had 2 weeks of solid events down here..then after the Daytona 500 we torched and was over Boston's first flake didn't occur until 1/12! In the next month BOS had 20+ but it was over by PDay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I believe we had 2 weeks of solid events down here..then after the Daytona 500 we torched and was over Those GOA low winters seem to always have a period where the pattern flips in January then usually in February it reverts right back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The AO NAO go negative week of the 16th, life jackets thrown out,for today's bridge jumpers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The AO NAO go negative week of the 16th, life jackets thrown out,for today's bridge jumpers I definitely don't think a -NAO is a lock. In fact id say it's not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I definitely don't think a -NAO is a lock. In fact id say it's not likely. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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