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January 2015 Pattern Discussion


CapturedNature

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I hate to say it but i'd toss the GEFS right now. The GGEM ensembles look like the euro and that isn't a good sign IMO

Cmc and GEFS don't look like the euro ensembles.....not sure how you're coming to that conclusion, In fact, I would argue that the euro is the outlier. That said, it is somewhat more reliable but haven't we learned that if a model stands alone it is less believable? Fwiw, GEFS actually increase a better pattern 18z and it seems to have improved it in the long range. Now, me having made this assertion, I'm concerned but if we get some snow otg I'll settle...lol.

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The GFS guidance has been consistent with building a nice PNA ridge and maintaining high heights in W Canada. Even if our 500mb height anomalies are positive in the means, being at the climo peak for cold with cold air around just to our north would allow for fun.

 

One reason for the discrepancy could be the GFS speeding the MJO at a decent amplitude through phase 5-6-7 over the next 10 days. The Euro doesn't do that. I haven't looked at filtered VP 200mb, though. 

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The GFS guidance has been consistent with building a nice PNA ridge and maintaining high heights in W Canada. Even if our 500mb height anomalies are positive in the means, being at the climo peak for cold with cold air around just to our north would allow for fun.

 

One reason for the discrepancy could be the GFS speeding the MJO at a decent amplitude through phase 5-6-7 over the next 10 days. The Euro doesn't do that. I haven't looked at filtered VP 200mb, though. 

 

What I saw was a piece of the PV retro into AK and then develop lower heights right over the state. I don't even know if the MJO had anything to do with it, it may be just model nuances.

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What I saw was a piece of the PV retro into AK and then develop lower heights right over the state. I don't even know if the MJO had anything to do with it, it may be just model nuances.

 

 

That's true, or it could be both in that the Euro maintains a weak phase 5 signal instead of progressing, which doesn't allow for the big PNA spike...the PNA spike would help the piece of the PV get into a better position. 

 

I felt like the Euro even briefly hinted at some +PNA near day 10, but it doesn't have the forcing to maintain it and the progressive flow instead just shunts it east. The lack of a stronger MJO signal (or weak phase 5 signal?) plus the continued background state of a strong, progressive PAC Jet and the EPO breakdown causes the ugly EPS look...but the GFS truly hints at getting away from the Nina-like regime with its continued PNA reinforcement. 

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I found DT's post today to be distressing.  He talks about how the MJO forecasts have been accurate and suggest a turn to warmer for the east Jan 10-20...and that the outlook is unclear after Jan 20 with MJO forecasts going into COD.  Some forecasts apparently take it to 7,8,1 though.  It would truly suck to get a few inches of snow laid down with a good crust and a few inches of powder, and an arctic blast, to then have it melted away yet again.

 

DT is not right all the time, but he is sometimes and I take more seriously than JB.

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I found DT's post today to be distressing.  He talks about how the MJO forecasts have been accurate and suggest a turn to warmer for the east Jan 10-20...and that the outlook is unclear after Jan 20 with MJO forecasts going into COD.  Some forecasts apparently take it to 7,8,1 though.  It would truly suck to get a few inches of snow laid down with a good crust and a few inches of powder, and an arctic blast, to then have it melted away yet again.

 

DT is not right all the time, but he is sometimes and I take more seriously than JB.

 

I would not sweat it where you are. 

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I found DT's post today to be distressing.  He talks about how the MJO forecasts have been accurate and suggest a turn to warmer for the east Jan 10-20...and that the outlook is unclear after Jan 20 with MJO forecasts going into COD.  Some forecasts apparently take it to 7,8,1 though.  It would truly suck to get a few inches of snow laid down with a good crust and a few inches of powder, and an arctic blast, to then have it melted away yet again.

 

DT is not right all the time, but he is sometimes and I take more seriously than JB.

He's struggled mightily this winter..as has just about every met in the industry

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Scott in with a few short posts to raise hope and calm a potential melt...you are better than valium.

It is striking how unclear the pattern is this winter. Nothing is easy for you guys.

Hey look whatever happens, happens. It's weather...nothing we can do. I guess perhaps personally I'm not so down like some are. I wasn't sold on the euro cancel, but it sounds like some are. It's ballsy to always side with one piece of guidance. Hell even a small compromise means a lot.
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I also thought the Euro ensembles didn't look as bad last night as the 12z run...they had a bit more ridging up in the Yukon territories region...perhaps we might get more of a compromise between them and the GEFS...if we do, we can live with that for winter threats.

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I saw some 500mb maps yesterday that did show riding over the east, yet still ridging in Alaska, NW Canada...that has to be a good thing.

 

 

There is actually a trough in the east with good surface cold, but positive 500mb height anomalies. The anomalies can be misleading in the local area if we have the ridging in Alaska and NW Canada. That helps to provide a good low-level cold air source, and during peak climo for cold, would be sufficient for snow if we get the right storm tracks. 

 

The NAO still sucks, but we can work with this, especially if we get a PNA spike like the GFS/GEFS has consistently shown. This is a WAG/optimistic speculation, but wouldn't be surprised if we see a decent threat mid-month provided the PNA spike the GFS/GEFS shows verifies. That's a big if, though.

 

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The is actually a trough in the east with good surface cold, but positive 500mb height anomalies. The anomalies can be misleading in the local area if we have the ridging in Alaska and NW Canada. That helps to provide a good low-level cold air source, and during peak climo for cold, would be sufficient for snow if we get the right storm tracks. 

 

The NAO still sucks, but we can work with this, especially if we get a PNA spike like the GFS/GEFS has consistently shown. This is a WAG/optimistic speculation, but wouldn't be surprised if we see a decent threat mid-month provided the PNA spike the GFS/GEFS shows verifies. That's a big if, though.

 

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The position of the PNA ridge is great.  HPC was also talking about a west coast/intermountain ridge, which is a great spot for us I think and would both prevent a cutter and get the coastal plane in the game big time.  I am intrigued for the period Jan 9-11 although nothing is showing up.  Will we get a storm attacking the cold air?

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Out of all the teleconectors I know the least about the PNA ridge, thou it seems pretty damn bullish for SNE snow chances....more so than the -EPO and the Darn -NAO seems like it can be so fickle (Don't want east based) and so I was wondering are there MJO phases that coincide with PNA Ridging ....what drives the PNA ridge and are they known for being more transient than other teleconnectors

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