Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Really? LOL Not south of NH no..not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Well there is a difference though. I took it to mean you were thinking 0 snow the next couple weeks. Inside runners very often can lead to snow to ice events for us..similar to what we're looking at this weekend. Are we going to get copious amounts of snow in this pattern..probably not..but neither is anon in SNE..If I was Dendrite on north I'd be amped for tons of snow. You are getting too specific. The point that should be taken away is the further south you are in this pattern, the harder it will be for snow. There is no magical demarcation line...the probability increases further north and decreases further south. That's all you can say. In any given storm, it could be different, but since we don't have any details this far out on storms, we go by the general pattern and what type of storms we have historically seen in such a pattern. -EPO, SE ridge, +NAO is a gradient pattern...wagons north is how you would bet them. But again, that doesn't mean you can't have a storm further south. You really need to understand what probabilistic forecasting is and stop getting caught up in deterministic rhetoric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 We need probablistic forecasts. I'm probably getting more than areas near the pike, and quite a bit more than areas in n CT....but areas in NH are getting more than I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 You are getting too specific. The point that should be taken away is the further south you are in this pattern, the harder it will be for snow. There is no magical demarcation line...the probability increases further north and decreases further south. That's all you can say. In any given storm, it could be different, but since we don't have any details this far out on storms, we go by the general pattern and what type of storms we have historically seen in such a pattern. -EPO, SE ridge, +NAO is a gradient pattern...wagons north is how you would bet them. But again, that doesn't mean you can't have a storm further south. You really need to understand what probabilistic forecasting is and stop getting caught up in deterministic rhetoric. But that is not what people want to see. That doesn't tell us anything. Noone is asking for rain/snow lines..but for someone to say it's a snowless 10 day period south of the pike while north of it is super snowy doesn't sit well with me, and shouldn't for anyone else. It's not going to not snow and ice south of the pike and bury places from Springfield north..it doesn't work like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 But that is not what people want to see. That doesn't tell us anything. Noone is asking for rain/snow lines..but for someone to say it's a snowless 10 day period south of the pike while north of it is super snowy doesn't sit well with me, and shouldn't for anyone else. It's not going to not snow and ice south of the pike and bury places from Springfield north..it doesn't work like that I don't think it will be a snowless 10 day period south of the pike. But I don't know what else to tell you. I don't make deterministic forecasts on a parameter as highly variant as snowfall based on a pattern...all we can do is tell you that the particular pattern will favor further north. It doesn't mean you get zero snow...hell, you could get a foot of snow if things break right. But fewer things have to "break right" further north in order to see plowable snow events in this type of pattern. It's ok to talk in probabilities at this lead time. Embrace it and you'll find the discussion easier to understand. If you don't like it, then my advice would be to stick to the banter thread or other threads that talk deterministic solutions like the model thread and not the pattern thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I don't think it will be a snowless 10 day period south of the pike. But I don't know what else to tell you. I don't make deterministic forecasts on a parameter as highly variant as snowfall based on a pattern...all we can do is tell you that the particular pattern will favor further north. It doesn't mean you get zero snow...hell, you could get a foot of snow if things break right. But fewer things have to "break right" further north in order to see plowable snow events in this type of pattern. It's ok to talk in probabilities at this lead time. Embrace it and you'll find the discussion easier to understand. If you don't like it, then my advice would be to stick to the banter thread or other threads that talk deterministic solutions like the model thread and not the pattern thread. I understand it fine..it's just not the best way to convey information. there's a reason why it's never been used for public consumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 People forget the crap we dealt with last January too. Again, I'll take my chances with the cold HP nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 But that is not what people want to see. That doesn't tell us anything. Noone is asking for rain/snow lines..but for someone to say it's a snowless 10 day period south of the pike while north of it is super snowy doesn't sit well with me, and shouldn't for anyone else. It's not going to not snow and ice south of the pike and bury places from Springfield north..it doesn't work like that If a few inches of slop over to rain gets you excited then more power to you. In this pattern odds aren't exactly in our favor for appreciable snow events though they certainly can happen. I would rather be 50 miles farther north as pattern recognition and climo will tell you. We'll see what happens... will it be a shut out with 0.0" of snow - highly unlikely... will we get nickled and dimed but some lame events - that's a lot more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I understand it fine..it's just not the best way to convey information. there's a reason why it's never been used for public consumption. Well there isn't really any other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 If a few inches of slop over to rain gets you excited then more power to you. In this pattern odds aren't exactly in our favor for appreciable snow events though they certainly can happen. I would rather be 50 miles farther north as pattern recognition and climo will tell you. We'll see what happens... will it be a shut out with 0.0" of snow - highly unlikely... will we get nickled and dimed but some lame events - that's a lot more likely.That is perfectly fine for me. I'm not like others. I don't need massive storms and jackpots. Just frequent events that give a net gain . 1-3/ 2-4 then ice or ending as cold rain. Fine with me. This winter isn't going to yield big coastals it appears, so I think folks need to take what they can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Kevin partially melted. Why are probabilistic forecasts not good? People want to hear specifics but in atmospheric dynamics it's not possible without flat out lying. I like our chances but understand that if I see frozen they'll be plenty of taint most likely. However, there will likely be at least one system that gives region wide good snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That is perfectly fine for me. I'm not like others. I don't need massive storms and jackpots. Just frequent events that give a net gain . 1-3/ 2-4 then ice or ending as cold rain. Fine with me. This winter isn't going to yield big coastals it appears, so I think folks need to take what they can get Ridiculous conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Kevin partially melted. Why are probabilistic forecasts not good? People want to hear specifics but in atmospheric dynamics it's not possible without flat out lying. I like our chances but understand that if I see frozen they'll be plenty of taint most likely. However, there will likely be at least one system that gives region wide good snow cover. That's how I see it, Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Kevin partially melted. Why are probabilistic forecasts not good? People want to hear specifics but in atmospheric dynamics it's not possible without flat out lying. I like our chances but understand that if I see frozen they'll be plenty of taint most likely. However, there will likely be at least one system that gives region wide good snow cover. I didn't melt at all. There is nothing more confusing to the average person than seeing some graph or chart that says there's a 30% chance of 8 inches of snow a 25% chance of 10 inches..a 90% chance of >1 etc..they don't understand that . They want to see a range..2-4 /3-6 etc.. it's always been that way..and again is why we don't see this in the public sector..and if you do, it's quickly changed back to the old way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I didn't melt at all. There is nothing more confusing to the average person than seeing some graph or chart that says there's a 30% chance of 8 inches of snow a 25% chance of 10 inches..a 90% chance of >1 etc..they don't understand that . They want to see a range..2-4 /3-6 etc.. it's always been that way..and again is why we don't see this in the public sector..and if you do, it's quickly changed back to the old way You don't give snowfall ranges on a pattern outlook unless you are just doing it for complete entertainment purposes...because it won't be accurate. You highlight the areas that have the best shot at seeing plowable snows. Most people here understand that a gradient pattern is more favorable the further north you go. It isn't a new concept on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 You don't give snowfall ranges on a pattern outlook unless you are just doing it for complete entertainment purposes...because it won't be accurate. You highlight the areas that have the best shot at seeing plowable snows. Most people here understand that a gradient pattern is more favorable the further north you go. It isn't a new concept on this forum. Im talking about a forecast in the 1-2 days prior to the storm. I'm not sure if you understood that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Im talking about a forecast in the 1-2 days prior to the storm. I'm not sure if you understood that? Well nobody else here was talking about that. We were talking about the pattern and the snow chances within that pattern going forward. Not sure how it morphed into a theoretical discussion of a 36 hour prediction on a storm. I would certainly feel fine giving snowfall ranges 36 hours out if that is what you are asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Well nobody else here was talking about that. We were talking about the pattern and the snow chances within that pattern going forward. Not sure how it morphed into a theoretical discussion of a 36 hour prediction on a storm. I would certainly feel fine giving snowfall ranges 36 hours out if that is what you are asking. It all started when Ryan commented that south of the pike looked less robust for snow. Kevin, being south of the pike took that to mean no snow and the conversation went from there. If I'm forecasting snow for tomorrow night I would give ranges but mentioned caveats unless we were looking at a huge event. The public doesn't check the forecast for Saturday and run with it Tuesday without checking back in at closer lead times...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 well it sure sounds more interesting than December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro fwiw has a nice redeveloper next week. The long range continues to look a bit stormy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro fwiw has a nice redeveloper next week. The long range continues to look a bit stormy too. Yes, let's get a bit of snow cover in place to assist those -25c 850s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 can't say i've looked too hard to see which ensemble mean has performed better over the last 15 days or so across NA. always tend to lean on the euro but hopefully the gfs package has the right idea long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 can't say i've looked too hard to see which ensemble mean has performed better over the last 15 days or so across NA. always tend to lean on the euro but hopefully the gfs package has the right idea long-term. That area NE of AK seems to be giving models fits today. The EC actually eased off the EPO, but also eased off the troughing over the SW US which then eased off the SE ridge towards the end of the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That area NE of AK seems to be giving models fits today. The EC actually eased off the EPO, but also eased off the troughing over the SW US which then eased off the SE ridge towards the end of the 11-15 day. it's not a bad look - though i don't like seeing that PV re-established so far north on ec mean with relatively weak ridging over alaska. something like the gfs would be pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 it's not a bad look - though i don't like seeing that PV re-established so far north on ec mean with relatively weak ridging over alaska. something like the gfs would be pretty nice. The GFS op tried doing the same almost. I remember the nuances last year up there as well. I know it's an ensemble mean beyond 12 days or whatever out, but I do like seeing the HP in a good spot. Usually it means the H5 setup is conducive for that representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 But that is not what people want to see. That doesn't tell us anything. Noone is asking for rain/snow lines..but for someone to say it's a snowless 10 day period south of the pike while north of it is super snowy doesn't sit well with me, and shouldn't for anyone else. It's not going to not snow and ice south of the pike and bury places from Springfield north..it doesn't work like that Springfield is S.O.P. Map reading 101 - FAIL. ...Unless of course you are referring to Springfield, VT. ...or Springfield, NH. ...or Springfield, ME. All of which I highly doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Springfield is S.O.P. Map reading 101 - FAIL. ...Unless of course you are referring to Springfield, VT. ...or Springfield, NH. ...or Springfield, ME. All of which I highly doubt. Remember though, NH means North Haven to him not New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Hey easy with the North Haven jokes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like after some weakening, the ridge near the west coast rebuilds in the 11-15 day. We could have a pretty stormy week 2 of Jan, esp after the 9th or 10th. During that time, a mix of systems could occur from cutters to miller Bs. Then, one would guess that more cold may ensue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like after some weakening, the ridge near the west coast rebuilds in the 11-15 day. We could have a pretty stormy week 2 of Jan, esp after the 9th or 10th. During that time, a mix of systems could occur from cutters to miller Bs. Then, one would guess that more cold may ensue. Yeah that period of -PNA for a brief time. Prob makes it stormy but there's a risk of a cutter in there. PNA then goes positive and that's when things could really go well if we have some good shortwaves in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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