CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Well the last 24 hrs have sort of moved from a torch cutter to a more wintry start anyways of precip this weekend. This solution is all winter for many, but it's one solution amid many many more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 We snow says the Euro. From a mild Rainer to a raging snower. Confluence and pressing low level cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 We snow says the Euro. From a mild Rainer to a raging snower. Confluence and pressing low level cold Well it's a whole different upper level look. The energy from that PV is not going near the ULL out of the SW so instead you get what you see on the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 And we snow more after. The main low leaves with a second piece of energy. Weenie run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The idea is that nobody should be mico-analyzing the 1/4 threat yet. There's an awful lot of uncertainty when you have no downstream blocking and a lot of energy ejecting out of the SW. We have another 3 runs to get this threat inside 120 hours...and we know how much can change even at that lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Wild swings in the models continue. Para went from a mostly snow solution to a wet type look for most of SNE and central new england. Has what looks like two lows one after another. Still a week out and it'll change a dozen more times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 And another clipper coming down at the end of the run. I am Leon hear me roar...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Well it's a whole different upper level look. The energy from that PV is not going near the ULL out of the SW so instead you get what you see on the 12z euro.Experience in seeing these kinds of 5 h looks tells me that modeling is going to have issues with -25 degree air just to the North with a tight fast gradient . Does NOT mean I expect snow,only means we are going to continue to see huge model swings for probably the next 2-3 days. Gradients and ejection timing of energy in a cold regime have been and are a modeling dilemma. Exactly why I was chagrined at some pretty smart people's definitive cutter posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The idea is that nobody should be mico-analyzing the 1/4 threat yet. There's an awful lot of uncertainty when you have no downstream blocking and a lot of energy ejecting out of the SW. We have another 3 runs to get this threat inside 120 hours...and we know how much can change even at that lead time. I think it's reasonable to say that the interior will at least have a wintry start given a decent antecedent airmass, even if it does cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 That's a Hammertime pattern on the Euro today thru day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I think it's reasonable to say that the interior will at least have a wintry start given a decent antecedent airmass, even if it does cut. Yeah agreed there. It's also a really chilly pattern on the Euro as depicted through D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 And oh my on that Strat warming, the reports of Winters Death have been greatly exaggerated once again. Patience Grasshoppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The euro is seeing the pattern breakdown I've been talking and several others about starting at Day 10...its likely a few days early on it but you can see the EPO ridge retrogading or possibly even collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I think it's reasonable to say that the interior will at least have a wintry start given a decent antecedent airmass, even if it does cut. Yeah that looks like a fairly decent bet. It's hard to start as striaght rain in January when the antecedent airmass is quite cold. I'll start bothering to look at the position of the highs and such probably in another 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Don't forget the block north of AK too. That is an extremely important piece to the driver of cold in the lower 48. This is aside from any -EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Don't forget the block north of AK too. That is an extremely important piece to the driver of cold in the lower 48. This is aside from any -EPO ridge. I think snow goose is seeing it from the NYC south perspective? The pattern advertised on the euro looked good beyond d10 for us (sne) IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Wild swings in the models continue. Para went from a mostly snow solution to a wet type look for most of SNE and central new england. Has what looks like two lows one after another. Still a week out and it'll change a dozen more times Yep...the past day of EURO runs are pretty funny. Yesterday's 00z run had almost a HECS for the mid-Atlantic for the event on the 4th, then 12z went back to cutter...00z had a low cutting all the way over Lake Superior...and now 12z doesn't even smoke cirrus in NNE. An average of the 4 runs would put a low tracking right along the SNE coast or even in-between ALB and HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Yep...the past day of EURO runs are pretty funny. Yesterday's 00z run had almost a HECS for the mid-Atlantic for the event on the 4th, then 12z went back to cutter...00z had a low cutting all the way over Lake Superior...and now 12z doesn't even smoke cirrus in NNE. An average of the 4 runs would put a low tracking right along the SNE coast or even in-between ALB and HFD. I don't remember the HECS run other than snowing one around d10 but not the same system? Maybe I didn't look closely enough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Euro Ens still like the EPO ridge in the D10-D15 period. Looks cold. Op definitely not getting much love for its weekend solution though - most members are definitely cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 People are more than welcome to question snowgoose's interpretation of a model but a mindless Ebonics or question mark post are not the way to do it. Say why you feel otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 My only complaint on the EC is that the system is held back until late Sunday/Monday. It would be great to have something over the weekend. Of course, beggars can't be choosers. OT--just got back from NH. The rain was mixed with snow near Bretton Woods. 38.9/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The euro is seeing the pattern breakdown I've been talking and several others about starting at Day 10...its likely a few days early on it but you can see the EPO ridge retrogading or possibly even collapsing. Agree...we would be flooded with Pac air after the high slides off the coast...the ridge totally broke down..the ens keeps us cold with a -epo ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I thought Snowgoose meant a more classic wrn Pacific ridge? In any case, the euro tries to do that at the end of the run. It's also less amped for this weekend...at least the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 That ridge a little further east wouldn't be a bad thing. Probably a better position for us with less of a risk of cutters if it were to be true. Again, I still don't see a woe is me pattern overall. Hopefully the wrist cutters posting yesterday can dial it back some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 That ridge a little further east wouldn't be a bad thing. Probably a better position for us with less of a risk of cutters if it were to be true. Again, I still don't see a woe is me pattern overall. Hopefully the wrist cutters posting yesterday can dial it back some. Until people have snow in their yard, they will complain...then some of them will stop...but others will complain that the snow isn't 3 feet deep or that perhaps the models show a pattern relaxation 2 weeks down the road...some people are just chronic complainers. Anyways, I agree that the pattern looks pretty decent going forward to the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Until people have snow in their yard, they will complain...then some of them will stop...but others will complain that the snow isn't 3 feet deep or that perhaps the models show a pattern relaxation 2 weeks down the road...some people are just chronic complainers. Anyways, I agree that the pattern looks pretty decent going forward to the foreseeable future. Definite potential - I agree. It's a decent pattern... not a great pattern. My gut tells me we cash in eventually but we don't have a ton of margin for error. Hopefully the weenies understand that if they're without snow 7 days from now it's not the models fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Definite potential - I agree. It's a decent pattern... not a great pattern. My gut tells me we cash in eventually but we don't have a ton of margin for error. Hopefully the weenies understand that if they're without snow 7 days from now it's not the models fault. Yeah we really need a -NAO to call it a "great" pattern. I'm hoping one can form in the latter half of January like 2005 did, but it's not going to be easy. But in the meantime, we've got a very good PAC pattern to give us chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Don't forget the block north of AK too. That is an extremely important piece to the driver of cold in the lower 48. This is aside from any -EPO ridge. I'm sorry, but could you explain the difference between the two? I don't understand how to separate one from the other. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'm sorry, but could you explain the difference between the two? I don't understand how to separate one from the other. Thanks. The EPO ridge itself is a huge ridge poking up into AK...the block north of AK can be part of the -EPO ridge...but the ridge can break down and leave the block behind north of AK. That pattern would still deliver cold into Canada even if the EPO ridge broke down because the block north of AK still promotes cross-polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'm sorry, but could you explain the difference between the two? I don't understand how to separate one from the other. Thanks. Here is an example. If you loop this, you can see that block pinched off north of AK. As a result, the cold has nowhere to go, but south. This was key last winter. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2014122812&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=667 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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