N. OF PIKE Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Did we get the Blizzard of 2013 with a "pattern" not that favorable for KU's and then the stars aligned just right w a transient "quasi" block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Are we talking all climate sites, or just SNE in general? I actually found sne on BOX, but I would appreciate your source for all climo....thanks. i'm going to start book marking this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I think it's unlikely it takes that long to see something. Models are notoriously bad identifying and timing these shortwaves as they eject out of the west. I mean the SE ridge coupled with cold in Canada is going to set up a pretty decent baroclinic zone nearby. Doesn't take much of a disturbance to produce precipitation. However if legit threat means big event, that's a little more tricky. I'll gladly take a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I drafted this up yesterday but didn't post it because ...well, there's some inexplicable results. The MJO wave can be a force in motivating the circulation structure over the Pac and transitively elsewhere, but I further that it is one that is more or less effectual in doing so, based upon whether the in situ wave signature of the wave is IN or OUT of phase with the rest of the domain. When in, the correlation/expectation makes an apparent presentation on the flow structure much more readily then when out. Another way to say: If the WPO and EPO are both negative, the left side of the Wheeler Diagram is in sync. When these two indices are positive, ...the opposite is true. Here is the CDC, East Pacific Oscillation teleconnector records to date: There are some interesting features there (above). Glaring ... we can see the EPO negative event that took place back in November, a result of super typhoon Nuri's absorption into the AA phase of the North Pacific. The immediate downstream EPO was a jolt response that rippled downstream over N/A and brought the record early cool snap and GL snows... etc, etc.. But after that collapsed, the EPO has been oscillating through comparatively weaker intervals of both negative and positive. The rub there is that for the first 15 days of December (or so...) both the PNA was positive, and the EPO was negative; the distribution of anomalies over N/A laid down in poor correlation to that. Should have witnessed more cooler results but ... well, that didn't really happen ... What I wanted to say is that the MJO "seems" to be in a constructive interference (positive) wrt to the WPO and EPO since some some 17 to 20 days back. And, here are the composites for NDJ, for the phase 3-6: That appears a reasonably good fit... But, the monkey wrench going forward is this arctic unleashing. It seems a bit of anti-correlation will be in play over the N/A domain space. It all makes me wonder if some corrective event (of sorts..) takes place, much in the same way as Archembault "type" of reasoning (but not specific to her exact regions/scope...). In other words, putting this arctic air down sort of flies in the face of the longer term correlation for the MJO -- particularly when the MJO is holding hands with the NP, and the two feed-back positively. Should if anything be even warmer! Notice the D10 operational Euro from 00z last night -- that's not going to happen (if for no other reason just because it is a "day 10 Euro" ) of course ...but if it did, that is the sort of look one would expect for an effective MJO passing through Phases 3-6. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Personally I think the term "pattern" is poorly understood and generally misleading. I posted my detailed thinking on this topic yesterday and I don't want to rehash and muck up another thread. With cold around and hopefully eventually some stronger baroclinicity, moderate events are definitely possible. But I also think almost everything is still on the table. There can be a base pattern or background state of the atmospheric height field that remains more or less in place, while transient shortwaves drive individual storm systems. Poorly understood, sure, but generally misleading, I don't think so. It's not misleading to say that higher than normal heights are going to dominate Alaska in the coming weeks. Then again, why discuss anything here if "almost everything is still on the table." It is a difficult regime to nail down exact tracks in, but people need to realize that the moderate event could occur in Montreal or it could occur in Hartford. The background state being forecast by ensembles supports either solution. Doesn't mean the "pattern" was wrong or poorly forecast. Just poor results for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I actually found sne on BOX, but I would appreciate your source for all climo....thanks. i'm going to start book marking this stuff. I use an internal site, but your best bet is probably through here: http://www.sercc.com/nowdatamap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I don't know if there is any significance to this that goes deeper than the mere observation but ...WOW! I have never seen a geopotential circumvallate (off the SE coast) that exceeds 594 DM at the end of December - even considering the lat-lon. It may not be significant ... who knows, but it does smack as something about what is going on this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Enlightening post John, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The only thing of some concern are the much AN SST's. It may not matter much inland , but that is going to torch BL's if we do get some coastals down the road., for now it seems like the next 2-3 weeks it's strictly clippers and swfe so it won't matter much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Those ready to cancel winter should remember that snowfall in SNE is more closely correlated to precipitation than anything else from about the latitude of Hartford points north, and this December featured plenty of precipitation. I'm willing to bet that the majority of seasons that started slow in the snowfall department that ended up recovering not only featured above normal precip, but occurred during el Nino seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The only thing of some concern are the much AN SST's. It may not matter much inland , but that is going to torch BL's if we do get some coastals down the road., for now it seems like the next 2-3 weeks it's strictly clippers and swfe so it won't matter much I find the warm sst a weak argument. We've all seen cold Nor'easters in very early winter with torched sst. Conversely, remember the 75 with east winds at BOS in march 2012? Upper air contributes more than people realize. Eg: my nightmare of 12/30/00 was mainly thanks to the 850 low coming too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 That's an increasing hi dew torch signal for a day or 3 on the euro in the 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I also think November set a lot of individuals up for a let down (so to speak...). If November was more akin to the rest of the world, folks might be a bit more iron-hauled to the idea of December abandoning their hopes and dreams. Looking over the significant November climate events product, produced by NOAA, the US/Canada region were clearly the exceptions to the rule. ...Kind of like a cat sticking its head inside a paper bag and thinking that's the world. The world was warm and wet, however. Not cold. The record Lake Effect snows, and a coastal that whitened Thanks Giggedy ... these were local temporal and space anomalies that were more fortuitous to said desires. Folks should really consider themselves lucky! Instead, perhaps that N/A antithetical result might have led to disillusioning a few (possibly even rooted back to last winter's unrelenting cold into the MW, into forgetting the state of the world we really live in during the current era). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Maybe it's the rubber and snapping after a year and a half of chilly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 That's an increasing hi dew torch signal for a day or 3 on the euro in the 6-10. Yeah pretty ugly period there around the 4th. Big rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Maybe it's the rubber and snapping after a year and a half of chilly? Heh, I don't think it's anything that systemic... I think just the randomness of on-going positioning of features ...if however transient spread out over time, permitted a 12-16 mo period where EPO's tended to favor N/A for a primary cold conveyor... As things progress in time... we'll slip away from that. Who knows what the new paradigm will be.. But given to the predominating "rest of the World reality" that's been going on all the while, it's probably saner to assume warmer over cooler regimes would be favored here eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Maybe it's the rubber and snapping after a year and a half of chilly?BTV going on 8 straight months of at or above normal temps. No rubber band to snap there lol.But yeah last winter was below normal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 BTV going on 8 straight months of at or above normal temps. No rubber band to snap there lol. But yeah last winter was below normal though. Well I was thinking summer was cooler vs prior summers and winter last year was cold but my argument is a wag at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Meanwhile, euro hinting at an improving North Atlantic late in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Nice rainstorm on the euro for the 3/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Meanwhile, euro hinting at an improving North Atlantic late in the period. If by that you mean more blocking ... ? not really - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Nice rainstorm on the euro for the 3/4. Ha ha, it's awesome! 4 to 5 days in the deep freeze and then it warmsupjustintimeforrain ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Ha ha, it's awesome! 4 to 5 days in the deep freeze and then it warmsupjustintimeforrain ...Followed by several days back into the freezer. Makes me think we'll see a colder final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Ha ha, it's awesome! 4 to 5 days in the deep freeze and then it warmsupjustintimeforrain ... Lol yup. And then it cools right back down after the storm. Plenty of cold on either side of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The NAO is just killing us. This would have been a great pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Lol yup. And then it cools right back down after the storm. Plenty of cold on either side of course It's amazing what that model run is doing... It's building and building and building cold while simultaneously engineering ways NOT to allow it modulate the ptype of that event. Sorry snow lovers... clearly the atmosphere has a major agenda to pump your keesters... Muah ahahahhaha. Seriously though .. I was looking the GGEM and NOGEM (or whatever f they call that frankenmodel...) and thinking, gee, that looks like an icing event. But, then it also occurs to me that this is all over a week away so there isn't much deterministic value in any guidance type for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 This has been the worst winter to this point that I can ever recall. Jesus.....the rainers interspersed with shots of cold has been uncanny. I'd rather just an all out blowtorch, like 2006. Potential between January 5-10, but other than that, we're probably waiting for the 2nd half of January. Its been pretty bad, I will admit that. I've been pretty busy but am off this week and next. Stepping back looking at this month, i didnt really realize how horrific it has been. Without blocking, cutters are a given. The million dollar question is if we can get stuff in between. Last year I seemed like we did a decent job at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The NAO is just killing us. This would have been a great pattern. The NAO is not helping winter's cause ... but it is not the only problem. In fact, the culpability for the alternating rain freeze look is really more attributed to the ridge being too far west/off the W coast. I wrote extensively about this the other day; that construct in the flow causes the split, where one half curls around the "tuck" UAL in the SW, and the norther component then meanders E across Canada. The one meandering across southern Canada is confluent in random scales, but enough to support polar high arming from the main anticyclonic node of the NP. But the SE experiences a ridge, because the flow around the SW UAL is pumping latent heat over those regions. Bottom line, big mess. Enters the NAO and there's really no way to stop the west/cut scenario thereafter. So yes, the NAO ain't helpin', but it's really quite possible to cash-in and get good events without it. This isn't one of those times. Ryan and I warned people days ago this could (if not likely) happen ... heh, it is what it is. I have the front door open and love the opportunity to get some fresh air into the home. So there are thing to covet about this sort thing. To each his own I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 LOL at my meltdowns in here today because of the Euro. I need to get a freaking grip Yes you do ... because no one in here has melted down. I think you are being more introspective than you are either aware, or are lying - ha! In fact, Jerry and I just had a nice conversation about the warming background climate, and how this may just be a manifestation of that longer term tendency .. and it was agreeable, interesting, most importantly ...sane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Despite waffles in the op models ensembles are steadfast the past few runs of cutting the system and raining on sne. Euro ensembles have been steady as she goes with this for the past 2 days and today's run is no exception. It's a classic St Lawrence track which is one of the common winter storm tracks for us when we're on the wrong side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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