Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I always liked Larry, great guy too, taught me a lot and was always wiling to answer my questions at meetings and conferences. https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!topic/weatheramerica/mMt9G922Qq4 Like it or not, there most certainly has been a change in the 500MB longwave pattern, starting with the rain and wind event of Christmas Eve. Now, it may not be the type of weather you wish to see "in your backyard", but again the shift from widespread warmth to big cold intrusions is apparent on EVERY computer model. The question that now looms is twofold. Will the colder pattern produce some big snowfall totals in populated areas of the U.S.? And, how long will it last until the also-promised "January Thaw" takes over with its penchant for warmer and wetter conditions east of the Continental Divide?To tackle the first question, look at the drivers for the current jet stream configuration: a vast Alaskan -EPO blocking signature; a cAk vortex roughly centered around Hudson Bay; and a Sargasso Sea heat ridge (a close cousin of the more widely known Bermuda High). The cold gyre will be routinely placed directly between the two anticyclonic circulations, with storm energy emerging over Baja California being squeezed between the subtropical high and the Arctic motherlode. In theory, this should mean another significant precipitation event for Texas, the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard, probably around January 7 -8. If ridging in the -NAO position appears, frozen types or snow would be favored. But if a cold cyclonic system is maintained over Labrador into Greenland (as was seen for the first 3.5 weeks of December), you can pretty much bet on a mostly, if not all, rain event along the Interstate 95 corridor above Fayetteville NC.It is interesting to see that the ECMWF series, which once was most aggressive with maintaining warmer profiles over the Old South and Atlantic Coastal Plain, has slowly turned toward colder averages with the start of the "Thaw" pushed back to about January 10. Most scenarios involving an Alaskan blocking ridge will show considerable wobble, since that positive height anomaly may work in concert with other ridge signatures such as the +PNA (West Coast), -AO (Canadian Arctic) and -NAO (Baffin Island, Greenland and Iceland) types. The European ensemble group enables ridging either side of the gyre to force a southward motion and expansion. In so doing the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. have a very cold period before the climatological January Thaw sets in. Since there is a noticeable contribution from tropical forcing associated with disturbed weather in the western Pacific Ocean and Maritime Continent, the idea for a colder outcome has support from most synoptic factors. And, I might add, there is still plenty of snowpack in Canada, contrary to some rumors being floated around in some sectors of the forecast community.In a weak El Nino episode such as this, the middle of January can turn very much warmer in much of the nation. I do not expect the Arctic air to make a return into the lower 48 states before the 19th. I bring up this possibility now for one reason. Just as people wrote off winter due to the (predicted) mild first portion of December, past history shows that similar outcries for the end of winter occurred in 1996 and 2010. Just as we now have a period of cold values penetrating into the U.S., I think the last 10 or 11 days of January, much of February and possibly March will have that stamp of approval from Old Man Winter.Even in YOUR backyard. Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on Saturday, December 27, 2014 at 7:40 P.M. CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Yea same old pattern https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!topic/weatheramerica/mMt9G922Qq4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Para has a strong cutter for the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Para has a strong cutter for the 4th That's probably more of a SWFE. SNow to ice interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 That's probably more of a SWFE. SNow to ice interior. We'll take it. As currently modeled on the Para that is a decent front end dump out here. I like the fact that the moisture train is intact heading into January. It's only a matter of time before something delivers for the deep interior of SNE and CNE. I of course would love the CP folks to get mauled too but as much as Kevin hates the term it looks like N. of the Pike is in a better place the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 That's probably more of a SWFE. SNow to ice interior. Yeah sorry I was looking at the gfs by mistake. Para is actually an improved look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I still don't see the huge angst. The 4th easily could have a SWFE appeal at this stage. Beyond that, I don't see a huge issue. But hey, cancel winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I still don't see the huge angst. The 4th easily could have a SWFE appeal at this stage. Beyond that, I don't see a huge issue. But hey, cancel winter.boy Para puts huge numbers down in CNE NNE FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 0z Para and the GGEM show how you can get this more SWFE for the 4th system, I think this is more of what the outcome could possibly be, Reminds me of a lot of the same storms in the winter of 07/08 with systems sliding out under us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 0z Para and the GGEM show how you can get this more SWFE for the 4th system, I think this is more of what the outcome could possibly be, Reminds me of a lot of the same storms in the winter of 07/08 with systems sliding out under us That probably will start the kickoff in NNE. Might not be all snow, but I could see some sort of a mixed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 0z Para and the GGEM show how you can get this more SWFE for the 4th system, I think this is more of what the outcome could possibly be, Reminds me of a lot of the same storms in the winter of 07/08 with systems sliding out under us First winter out here for me and was great, even better for MPM and our banned poster from W. Chesterfield. You did well that winter, especially early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 That probably will start the kickoff in NNE. Might not be all snow, but I could see some sort of a mixed event. That's what i have been thinking, A little messy but could be mostly frozen inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 First winter out here for me and was great, even better for MPM and our banned poster from W. Chesterfield. You did well that winter, especially early on. We did awesome here, Ended up with 137.80" that winter with our avg being 76" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 We did awesome here, Ended up with 137.80" that winter with our avg being 76"All Snow disapproves. Lets see how this evolves,models notorious underplay LL cold at long leads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I still don't see the huge angst. The 4th easily could have a SWFE appeal at this stage. Beyond that, I don't see a huge issue. But hey, cancel winter. 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 All Snow disapproves. Lets see how this evolves,models notorious underplay LL cold at long leads Yup, Always under played until we get closer to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The further south the poster is located the lower the melting temperature it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The further south the poster is located the lower the melting temperature it seems.Euro cutter gonna cut, hopefully we see some changes by Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Euro cutter gonna cut, hopefully we see some changes by Monday Snow Goose seemed pretty confident it was a wash out for about all of SNE. No shock, 1'st system of pattern change skunks us. Looks like 5'th thru 10'th has good potential. I like the end of the run, I would think now is a great time to fill or top off your Natty gas (oil) at multi-year lows before this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Snow Goose seemed pretty confident it was a wash out for about all of SNE. No shock, 1'st system of pattern change skunks us. Looks like 5'th thru 10'th has good potential. I like the end of the run, I would think now is a great time to fill or top off your Natty gas (oil) at multi-year lows before this cold. This system appears it will change the pattern further by developing a more classic WRN US ridge vs the junk ridge we have out there right now which is off the coast...well maybe its not junk, but its junk for us. Again I'd be wary of this storm trending weaker, and if it does we may again not see the shift the GFS/Euro are now indicating which basically is an end to the SE ridge and strong W coast ridge with a raging +NAO, but you know what, I'd take my chances with that pattern even though odds would now be storms would be more likely to miss offshore due to the crazy +NAO and the trof axis more east...you can clearly see the breakdown I think is coming though around Day 12-13...the ridge starts getting beat down out West and we may go briefly zonal thereafter...I think the MJO will make its presence known for a time but fortunately it will probably go into phase 7 soon after...we escape most of its trek through 4,5, and 6 unscathed minus the one cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Snow Goose seemed pretty confident it was a wash out for about all of SNE. No shock, 1'st system of pattern change skunks us. Looks like 5'th thru 10'th has good potential. I like the end of the run, I would think now is a great time to fill or top off your Natty gas (oil) at multi-year lows before this cold. It's not going to cut like models show..not with that setup. You've got low level cold pressing..what will probably happen like Scooter said is some kind of an ice event/storm for the interior..and maybe cold rain at coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 That's probably more of a SWFE. SNow to ice interior. People see a storm going for the lakes and assume it's rain for everyone..It's not..running into a wall of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 It's not going to cut like models show..not with that setup. You've got low level cold pressing..what will probably happen like Scooter said is some kind of an ice event/storm for the interior..and maybe cold rain at coast Ehhh, that one has high cut potential. No biggie, looks like it sets the pattern up better for mid-December. The ECMWF tracks through Lake Superior. I doubt that's right, but even if it goes up the St Lawrence, the end result is pretty similar. We'll see, but I know Will mentioned that one has cut potential with maybe around the 10th as the first real threat of the new pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 People see a storm going for the lakes and assume it's rain for everyone..It's not..running into a wall of cold Well that's two different things. Are you saying it won't cut, or it may cut but still be wintery? I read your posts as saying it's going south of us, which will be real hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Ehhh, that one has high cut potential. No biggie, looks like it sets the pattern up better for mid-December. The ECMWF tracks through Lake Superior. I doubt that's right, but even if it goes up the St Lawrence, the end result is pretty similar. We'll see, but I know Will mentioned that one has cut potential with maybe around the 10th as the first real threat of the new pattern. But cutting doesn't mean mild rains to Maine..it means snow to mix etc... while you stay all snow..I guess my point it when you cut a storm into the lakes with pressing cold..you don't just assume it's rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 But cutting doesn't mean mild rains to Maine..it means snow to mix etc... while you stay all snow..I guess my point it when you cut a storm into the lakes with pressing cold..you don't just assume it's rain Ok that I agree with. I thought you were saying it was going to track south is us due to the low level cold. The trough will take it where it wants. But yeah wintery mix for many, at least to start, definitely. I still think the system will cut but said nothing of p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 But cutting doesn't mean mild rains to Maine..it means snow to mix etc... while you stay all snow..I guess my point it when you cut a storm into the lakes with pressing cold..you don't just assume it's rain I think Maine is about the only place that sees much frozen precip and other far NRN parts of NE...I don't see much frozen precip as of now, the high is stale by the time the system ejects from the Plains and it also initially drops too far south...ideally you want a high to sort of skirt the NRN tier of the US, not drop into Missouri then exit the Mid Atlantic. You basically get no frozen front end that way because your flow is S even as the system approaches vs ENE or NE if the high is up over Quebec or Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I think Maine is about the only place that sees much frozen precip and other far NRN parts of NE...I don't see much frozen precip as of now, the high is stale by the time the system ejects from the Plains and it also initially drops too far south...ideally you want a high to sort of skirt the NRN tier of the US, not drop into Missouri then exit the Mid Atlantic. You basically get no frozen front end that way because your flow is S even as the system approaches vs ENE or NE if the high is up over Quebec or Maine. There will be cold air in place to overrun and it looks like it's coming out 12-18 hours earlier than it initially did. This will probably even start as snow in NYC..lots of low level cold..As a lot of the New England mets have been saying a safe with snow to ice is the way to think at least for now..ending as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 There will be cold air in place to overrun and it looks like it's coming out 12-18 hours earlier than it initially did. This will probably even start as snow in NYC..lots of low level cold..As a lot of the New England mets have been saying a safe with snow to ice is the way to think at least for now..ending as rain It could easily be rain. I was describing that solution verbatim that the new GFS showed. But for NNE it's probably going to be a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Gfs parallel was a more promising run. It looked like the combination of High pressure and than northern stream shortwaves kept the storm from being able to cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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