40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Dreams can come true.. They can happen to you, Fast flow, no blocking.. No coastals Find a new hobby The fast flow is gone by Feb imho.....Nino climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 We get coastals all the time in progressive patterns with no blocking. The steepness of the west cost ridge is important, slow moving wound up coastals, no...we need some kind of blocking for that. Not at all. Hey maybe I'm wrong. But I actually think I'm being realistic and not hanging onto something that looks like a stretch. If we get blocking everything changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 You can get good coastals with a nice Pacific. Even the big Feb 2013 was rather progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I think this is wrong and I think you have been slowly almost imperceptively melting over the lat 2 days. We have several components for costal storms and as Steve says all we need is good timing or a quasi block. I think it will happen and I think the pattern can support a coastal. Positive pna active southern jet strong baroclinity cold air source. it hasn't been imperceptible,he gone,gone like a freight train,gone like yesterday,he gone and ain't never coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I knew what you meant. I just wanted to get this out in the open, as clear and unequivocal as possible. To me, a dead ratter is usually one that has the big AK vortex with no hope. We don't have that this year right now. I don't expect to either. So, you'll always have opportunities when that isn't around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 it hasn't been imperceptible,he gone,gone like a freight train,gone like yesterday,he gone and ain't never coming back I was going to respond to him, but yeah, this. Pattern looks fine for chances at all sorts of events and ptypes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 You can get good coastals with a nice Pacific. Even the big Feb 2013 was rather progressive.pos NAO too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 And we even had Tip waxing poetic about how it wasn't going to work out because the flow was too progressive and nothing was there to change it, lol.one point I have been meaning to make. As a region we ain't seeing Feb 13 again for a very long time,in fact as a forum that might be a lifetime storm. Sure individual pockets of our forum might top it but as a whole,that was a pinnacle.The pattern is loaded with cold, overhead and nearby,shi te happens when it's cold near the big pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 one point I have been meaning to make. As a region we ain't seeing Feb 13 again for a very long time,in fact as a forum that might be a lifetime storm. Sure individual pockets of our forum might top it but as a whole,that was a pinnacle. The pattern is loaded with cold, overhead and nearby,shi te happens when it's cold near the big pond. If you mean a widespread 2-3' snowstorm, I agree, and I don't think anyone really thinks that we will. But if you mean a [relatively] wound-up nor'easter in a pattern that previously wasn't producing coastals left and right, I think we see that pretty often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Tropospheric forcing wise, for the first time this autumn / cold season, Nino-like tropical forcing will continue to increase over the next 1-2 weeks. Becoming more confident this will aid in tilting the scales toward the initiation of some height rises in the Atlantic and a -NAO period shortly after the onset of -AO conditions. The GFS ensembles might be rushing things Atlantic wise, but this is the type of progression we should see in late January. Massive change in heights if one compares the current maps (strong vortex / low heights dominating the Greenland / north atlantic region) to the progged conditions at D 15-16. Following the transient EPO collapse, heights should quickly recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z GFS ensembles continue the signal for rapid high latitude changes shortly after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro as one red tag said the other day is obsessed with cutters at the end of runs. Still a week plus out but II'm not feeling that storm. I think I like jan 5-10 as our flip, praise ullr. In review -clipper drops light snows on us this past week -arctic squalls today bring in bone chilling cold today -good 1-2" light snow event friday -some models offering chance at light snow monday -potential storm mid week Pattern potentially offering up more threats starting mid next week. Everything is on schedule with this pattern flip. If it rains like the euro showed at 12z I would eat my hat. Hints at the start of a -nao too. This is the best pattern we have started since winter has begun. Deep breaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 In review -clipper drops light snows on us this past week -arctic squalls today bring in bone chilling cold today -good 1-2" light snow event friday -some models offering chance at light snow monday -potential storm mid week Pattern potentially offering up more threats starting mid next week. Everything is on schedule with this pattern flip. If it rains like the euro showed at 12z I would eat my hat. Hints at the start of a -nao too. This is the best pattern we have started since winter has begun. Deep breaths. I wouldn't find it that weird of it rained next week. I'd lean against it for now given that most guidance has decent confluence to the north, but we still have no downstream blocking. If more of the energy consolidated then a inland runner isn't impossible. On the bright side, the EC ensembles have muted the MLK torch to almost a merely normal temp pattern. Maybe just barely above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Sbos weenieing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 My gut still says we get a little GOAK trough relaxation and a mild up. Maybe it's only a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Sbos weenieing out.Only 65,000 more posts until I reach your level of weenie martyrdom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Verbatim the chances should increase closer to the middle of the month, for something bigger than these wind thwacked passing squally days... Flows been on target for relaxation ...gradually, heading up to the ides of the month. But, I am not certain the -EPO is going away entirely. That is good, but, if comes back as the atmospheric equivalent of Mt Everest ... that may not be so good. But the PNA should become more positive. NCEP noted last week that the MJO was in "constructive" wave interference; which as I have outlined before is important for knowing which phase 7 MJO is more or less effective. It's complex... the gist of it is, the surrounding flow has to be in sync with the wave, or the wave's longer term correlation on pattern type is likelier to break down. And their update this week insinuates the same is occurring. So perhaps our MJO progged to enter the West Pac will mean help induce a paradigm shift in the Pac (+PNA). I like this statement they make, "... An elevated threat for tropical cyclone development exists for some areas across the West Pacific and waters near northern Australia..." You can kind of see how it fits together, if west Pac TC then curves into higher latitudes... The GEFs abruptly break the wave down entering Phase 7. But the operational takes it robustly through... Not sure how dependable either is at D10 ... obviously likely not very. Anyway, not surprised this time if one of these 192 hour deals work out this time, as there are some 50,000 ft aspects that support better than in previous weeks of screaming buzz-saw SPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I do think at some point we answer to the GOAK trough. Hopefully the Pacific improves later in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I do think at some point we answer to the GOAK trough. Hopefully the Pacific improves later in the 11-15 day. Why are you being pessimistic for? The ensembles already improve late in the 11-15 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 There's just no mild period coming at all. Gefs whipped the ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 There's just no mild period coming at all. Gefs whipped the ensnormal the new mild up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I would say the GEFS actually look a tad bit warmer than the EC ensembles for MLK timeframe. We are definitely warming up. The question is whether we get an actual thaw with multiple days in the 40s or if it is much more muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Only 65,000 more posts until I reach your level of weenie martyrdom Weenieing out is not a bad thing Not sure why everyone takes that as a negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I would say the GEFS actually look a tad bit warmer than the EC ensembles for MLK timeframe. We are definitely warming up. The question is whether we get an actual thaw with multiple days in the 40s or if it is much more muted. Well yeah but we mean just a couple days in the 30's. That's perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Why are you being pessimistic for? The ensembles already improve late in the 11-15 day Because we are going to warm up. No denying it. It may mean a few days in the 40s, or maybe a cutter and mild 3-5 days. We don't know. I do agree it tries to rebuild later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I do think at some point we answer to the GOAK trough. Hopefully the Pacific improves later in the 11-15 day. The fun starts a few days after MLK. All signs point to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well yeah but we mean just a couple days in the 30's. That's perfect Thee could be a cutter in there. It's very silly to try and pin down the dailies this far out. Hopefully we avoid any cutter but there's no way to know if we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The fun starts a few days after MLK. All signs point to go Yeah seems like we could have some improvement by then. Not sure on the epic run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well whatever ends up happening we'd better hope the next 10-14, days produce some sort of snow events . Otherwise golf courses will be opening for whatever it's worth, i don't think most mets think things look bad to close out the month and then going forward, so i think that's a stretch. this isn't 11-12. everything shows the ridging building back into Alaska pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 for whatever it's worth, i don't think most mets think things look bad to close out the month and then going forward, so i think that's a stretch. this isn't 11-12. everything shows the ridging building back into Alaska pretty quickly. pretty much a typical three day Jan thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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