Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Would be funny and of course awesome if we ended up Jan above normal snow and bitter cold. Not as far fetched as it seemed a week ago. Lets do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'm not sold on a real -NAO yet...that is a transient ridge that drops the index number for a few days. Perhaps post-Jan 25th we get more of a real block setting up over Iceland and potentially into Greenland, but right now, the signal is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Kudos to you Ginxy Not yet but I do like the way it is evolving, give Dr Cohen all the credit here because I modeled in my head the hemispheric response to his thinking and reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'm not sold on a real -NAO yet...that is a transient ridge that drops the index number for a few days. Perhaps post-Jan 25th we get more of a real block setting up over Iceland and potentially into Greenland, but right now, the signal is weak. best part being there is a definite signal and its has gotten stronger which is a good sign, could be the 25th on but I think by the 23rd . but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's definitely not a -NAO and the -AO has modeled is barely below neutral on the EC ensemble right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 If we get a -AO hovering at a -0.5SD...sorry, that's a huge fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 If we get a -AO hovering at a -0.5SD...sorry, that's a huge fail. Yea, I'd hold off on spiking the football in relation to any neg NAO/AO this sesaon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yea, I'd hold off on spiking the football in relation to any neg NAO/AO this sesaon. no spiking but nice modeling confirmation of my thinking when others obviously thought no chance at all. Like I told Dan no kudos yet but we are getting better signals every day, somethings going to pop here for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 and after all all we need is a good timed transient NAO, who cares if its positive when there are no storms, and yes the AO drop continues to be shown and a disruption of the vortex continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 If we get a -AO hovering at a -0.5SD...sorry, that's a huge fail. Have no idea where you came up with that number as the mean is -1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Have no idea where you came up with that number as the mean is -1.5 I mean going forward. It's real easy to get any index within 1SD...the SAI would be almost irrelevant as many other factors can easily trigger something within -1SD to +1SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 no spiking but nice modeling confirmation of my thinking when others obviously thought no chance at all. Like I told Dan no kudos yet but we are getting better signals every day, somethings going to pop here for us. Well, I assumed a sarcastic tone because I was looking for some piece of evidence other than the SAI/SCE. I wasn't implying that it would never happen.....but needs to be a pretty convincing case for it the face of the overall tenor of this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 If the ensembles are right, the overall look is on the -AO side I think, but as far as the -NAO..I don't see it yet. However as Will said, there are signs of maybe something east based. There are still signs that some splitting may occur at 50mb, but I do not see anything close to concrete evidence yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 There are some very good signals going forward for you guys in SNE and eastern New England... you're coming into your climo snowiest time of the season where its easiest to get it to snow, there's definitely been an uptick in storminess progged in the long range on the models in the past couple days, there's great cold nearby in NNE and southern Quebec/Ontario, etc. I know its not that easy, but you aren't going to be getting shut out forever so the odds are for something to work out favorably after we get through the next week. I could definitely see a few fringe jobs up here (which would be completely fine, as its time to share the love) but I stand by thinking February will be a good month for you guys. It may not be epic, but at this point, I'm sure a few 3-6" events would feel pretty epic. Plus the chance for a 12-spot type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I was specifically referring to Dr Cohen's blog not the SAI. It appears to me anyways that the EPO isn't going anywhere, PNA will be our buddy, the SE ridge is getting booted, AO is going negative and transient NAOs happen. All very important signs to a chance for snowstorms to evolve. I would highly favor Miller Bs over Miller As or a combination hybrid rather than a pure Miller A. Perhaps our best chances to get snow seem to be on our doorstop. We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 How about today's Euro Ensembles. Total weather porn D10-D15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 euro ens look pretty tasty in the long run. brief - albeit trending stronger - transient ridge into the n atlantic and overall signs of some ridging into Greenland...and of course massive epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 How about today's Euro Ensembles. Total weather porn D10-D15! we bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 How about today's Euro Ensembles. Total weather porn D10-D15! The guidance has been looking better as we get closer to this which is a positive sign. The pattern back in early January got a bit worse as we got closer...it was still cold, but the PV became overbearing and the SE ridge got stronger as we approached verififcation time. Meat grinder. This one looks to have some more legs to it in terms of storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 GEFS are good too, but the EC ensembles are more favorable with the east-based -NAO in the long range post-1/25. GEFS revert back to a solidly +NAO look. The key is the more stretched look to the PV I think in Canada...it allows some room to operate...lack fo a SE ridge helps too of course in allowing for that southern extrension of lower heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The trough axis is further west and stretched like Will said. Not that perfect circular look at has earlier this month. I thought that was the ensemble mean being smoothed out and s/w details couldn't be determined, but it was right. Sheared out garbage it was. If anything, having a trough axis like what today's 12z run has, sort of goes against the opposite of what we have seen. That's a pattern that brings cstl huggers too. Anyways, that's speculation at this point. Nobody wants a dry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yea, I'd hold off on spiking the football in relation to any neg NAO/AO this sesaon. no spike but driving hard and Gronk is wide open Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan 5m -NAO, -AO, -EPO. If the Euro Ensembles are right winter is getting ready to pay us a big visit end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I mean going forward. It's real easy to get any index within 1SD...the SAI would be almost irrelevant as many other factors can easily trigger something within -1SD to +1SD. The Euro today was -3.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The Euro today was -3.7Yes, but let's get that to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Boy oh boy... next week looks tasty on the ensembles. I think next week is the promised land folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If we get a -AO hovering at a -0.5SD...sorry, that's a huge fail. For perspective, for the AO to average -0.500 for the winter, it will need to average -1.903 for the January 15-February 28 period. For the AO to average -1.000 for the winter, it will need to average -2.903 during that same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 For perspective, the SAI took a dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 For perspective, the SAI took a dump Are you sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Are you sure? I mean, we could see an abrupt shift. What sort of feature would be responsible for delaying the SAI implied pattern? I recall Cohen mention a persistent low pressure somewhere in the "BK seas" area last several weeks messing with development and persistence of a blocking pattern formation. Would love to see this feature weaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I mean, we could see an abrupt shift. What sort of feature would be responsible for delaying the SAI implied pattern? I recall Cohen mention a persistent low pressure somewhere in the "BK seas" area last several weeks messing with development and persistence of a blocking pattern formation. Would love to see this feature weaken It seems to me that we have a decent shot starting in these next few weeks. If that fails, it may be time to fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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