ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 1980-1981 is the only top 15 coldest winter at Logan Airport to fail to reach 30" of snow...it was pretty paltry at 22.3". That's probably the closest to frigid and snowless as BOS has come in the past 8 decades. It's hard to crack the top 15 as it is anyway competing against those winters of mid 20th century. We've done it twice since 1990...1993-1994 (6th coldest) and 2002-2003 (5th coldest). Both winters were prolific for snow in BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 '79-'80 wasn't cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 1980-1981 is the only top 15 coldest winter at Logan Airport to fail to reach 30" of snow...it was pretty paltry at 22.3". That's probably the closest to frigid and snowless as BOS has come in the past 8 decades. It's hard to crack the top 15 as it is anyway competing against those winters of mid 20th century. We've done it twice since 1990...1993-1994 (6th coldest) and 2002-2003 (5th coldest). Both winters were prolific for snow in BOS. Does winter '03-04 even compete for prolific cold with the top 15 you mention?Other than the Dec. Storm, I remember that one as being really futile in the snow dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 '79-'80 wasn't cold? No, very average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Does winter '03-04 even compete for prolific cold with the top 15 you mention? It's ranked 22nd...just behind 2013-2014 at 21st. Dec 2003 wasn't really cold...Feb '04 wasn't that cold either...Jan 2004 was the whole shebang for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I think it would be pretty funny to achieve balls cold and snow futility. What are the chances for that ever? Schadenfreude - and I would, too. Take joy at watching that aromatic tenor of entitlement one unavoidable detects 'between the lines' ... get interrupted by the turds of reality. All this cold by season talk in recent pages strikes me as far less important than what is taking place over North America in general. 2013-2014 being ranked 21st is laughable compared to what it was ranked in the midwest. The use of that discussion drops off pretty quickly for me unless we discuss how it connects to the large scale circulation medium, and biases therein/from. And getting into it further, hemispheric is everything. But that's just me... Whatever our own teeny tiny local ...ultimately, irrelevant spatial-scaled anomaly distribution has verified, it is purely a function of the former, and says almost nothing about the status of the large, governing system, unless discussion pervades a much, much vaster array of outcomes. Be that as it may... this is a pattern thread... I suggest the operational models and their respective ensemble means (that I have seen) are currently in a period where they are trying to bring the effects of the NP switching back to the AA phase, into focus. We are seeing a pretty loud indication for a shift in the base-line paradigm (perhaps even "return" is a better word), across the Norther Pacific, featuring a strong negative WPO to EPO arc. What that means is that given time and hazard pay in the models ...eventually a strong -EPO ridge is purchasable We do see that from time to time in the operational GFS ...and for some reason, less in the Euro. One thing about that ... I have noticed that it is difficult to sense any operational Euro trends in the D7+, as it seems to go out of its way to dampen the Alaskan sector, regardless of troughs and/or ridges. I am not saying one should extend much credence over a D9 Euro oper. solution, no. But, when balancing in teleconnector arguments combined with nuances from run to run, one can assess a kind of "correction vector" -- you'll do pretty well over the longer run if you assume corrections will go one way or the other, based upon both a-priori experience combined with education in such matters... So I think "warmth" in terms of seasonality is on hold. Not that anyone suggested otherwise, just sayin'... I think we have a shot even of manufacturing a continental -scaled cold wave out there toward week. Lastly, the NAO briefly tucks in a transient negative phase, just prior to the PNA and EPO switching phases ... somewhere in that inflection interval is where one might want to look for more important event(s). As to the next 5 days. I see this business Sunday night in early Monday as a fast moving slug of 3 to 6 hours of moderate to heavy rain, ending abruptly in rather jolted temp drop ... along with kind of a weak sauce isollobaric wind acceleration as rapid deepening moves up through the GOM. There may be a very narrow stripe of ZR/pellets and snow, somewhere way inland, but not really the enough to write about. Then, there may be a some sort of NJ -model miller b type of low, mid week, passing close enough to bring the more physical presentation of winter back to neighborhoods near you. How much, who knows... We are dealing with Pac impulses in quite the dizzying array to choose from, in a progressive flow, that is slowly going to be split from the higher latitudes as this NP switch takes place. Good luck with details... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 One has to wonder if the Siberian snowpack is still having some influence because despite the fact it appears the AO is now going to go raging positive again, its going to get cold again...this would be one of the coldest months I can ever remember with an AO this positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Jan-march '04 Much more snow by now.....thanks to the MECS in December. Season finished within 10% of normal and March snow was above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 One has to wonder if the Siberian snowpack is still having some influence because despite the fact it appears the AO is now going to go raging positive again, its going to get cold again...this would be one of the coldest months I can ever remember with an AO this positive. It almost seems intuition demands the answer is yes... Not you per se, but folks need to know (if they choose to actually understand what feeds their obsession...) that the WPO, EPO and NAO are "polarward" domains, but are not arctic, such as the region above the 60th parallel associated with the Arctic Oscillation. The AO with respect to these others only partially share domain spaces. Because of that ... quite naturally there are times when these indices fall away from the longer term tendency for their respective curves to move together. The short and skin is, the AO can be positive while the EPO is negative, and the EPO loads cold from above the 60th parallel regardless of the over all characteristic of the in situ AO index suggestion. It could even connote something as simple as cold for N/A, but warm everywhere else in the NH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Much more snow by now.....thanks to the MECS in December. Season finished within 10% of normal and March snow was above normal. I just remember bare ground in Jan. And Feb. With a moderate storm in March towards the final days of winter. But yeah, that Dec. Storm distorted reality that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It's basically steady as she goes kind of deal. There is too much volatility right now, but the general features remain the same. As long as we can keep ridging in the EPAC area, we'll have a shot. Maybe even the chance of srn stream systems if disturbances can slide east from CA like the op runs show. It's not Jan 2011 at the moment, but I still don't see cold and dry verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Seems to be a real signal for ball breaking cold right at the end of the month on the ensembles. Brr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Seems to be a real signal for ball breaking cold right at the end of the month on the ensembles. Brr. If we don't have snow with that I disdain. Definite frigidity on the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 If we don't have snow with that I disdain. Definite frigidity on the eps. The position of the Pv is south of hudson bay on the eps...south of -10 850s for day 11-15...that's cold for a mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 i always have low confidence in the 11-15 day ens as a whole, just too erratic, hows that thaw working out... No kidding man. And now I see were back to the freaking freezer on these models..What a roller coaster ride the last few days i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Still need to watch out for next monday too. MOdels have a nice low nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Still need to watch out for next monday too. MOdels have a nice low nearby. See if we can pop that PNA ridge more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 January's pretty much done in terms of snowfall with model run to model run consistently showing storms to our east due to trough axis being too far out into the ocean. Maybe we'll get some scraps from a D.C.clipper somehow but that's about it. Still hopeful for early Feb. though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 January isn't even close to being done. The month has clearly blown chunks. There's 12 days left in the month ffs and every reliable met said pattern is better by the last week. Month might be closer to ending than it was, but that has nothing to do with the threats. Pattern is not the same as the one earlier in the month so anyone claiming that is plain wrong. we don't even have a handle on the clipper yet alone 12 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Agree Jay. Not sure why people are saying that, other than raw emotions which is dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well the 12z OP Euro looked Wintry with multiple threats through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well the 12z OP Euro looked Wintry with multiple threats through the end of the run. Back to Back snowstorms this upcoming weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Does anyone know when GEFS will include the upgraded gfs? My understanding is they haven't been touched? Which is why they start coming out before the op (formerly para) is finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Does anyone know when GEFS will include the upgraded gfs? My understanding is they haven't been touched? Which is why they start coming out before the op (formerly para) is finished. I think dtk may have answered this in the mid-atlantic forum yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro Ensembles love this weekends threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The mean brushes us with QPF, but probably from skewed members. I really think the bigger deal is Mon-Tues next week. I wouldn't hold hope for Saturday. Just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro Ensembles love this weekends threatLooks to be well offshore to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The mean brushes us with QPF, but probably from skewed members. I really think the bigger deal is Mon-Tues next week. I wouldn't hold hope for Saturday. Just my guess. Euro Ensembles also love the 2nd storm for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Looks to be well offshore to me. Way more amplified than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Way more amplified than previous runsyes, agree. Not far from op. NAM rolling now. Comparing to 12z, it might come in a little better. nothing earth shattering. (for clipper) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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