Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 i agree Especially since much of this event is saturday NIGHT you seem awful generous on your descriptions overall. the biggest panel drops like .1" in 6 hours.. every model has big time rate issues. sure something could happen but the models are pretty lock step in a crappy low and not a lot of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 also i was including today's precip in the totals listed earlier. oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 wetter.. tho last run was really dry. 0.25"+ for everyone.. low levels are iffy prob tho need to see hi res. storm/track not much different. Though if you look at the weatherbell total accumulations or add the 6 hourly totals and they are less than on the stormvista. I wonder whether the storm vista amounts on each 3 map are actually 6 hourly QPF instead of 3 hourly. The total precipfor us for today's even and the weekend on is .30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Though if you look at the weatherbell total accumulations or add the 6 hourly totals and they are less than on the stormvista. I wonder whether the storm vista amounts on each 3 map are actually 6 hourly QPF instead of 3 hourly. The total precipfor us for today's even and the weekend on is .30. yeah i made a mistake and looked at total qpf forgetting there was some from today.. my numbers were too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 My call...1-2" I like bumping my own posts even if I'm the only one reading them...well...me and the Philly guys...lol Still liking this call based on all available guidance...will bump again tomorrow thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Though if you look at the weatherbell total accumulations or add the 6 hourly totals and they are less than on the stormvista. I wonder whether the storm vista amounts on each 3 map are actually 6 hourly QPF instead of 3 hourly. The total precipfor us for today's even and the weekend on is .30. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 with a few minor changes (relatively speaking of course), I could see this becoming a 2-4" event, 3-6" max around the big cities and at 4.5 days away in DEC, that's a fighting chance in these parts Exactly, far from over though a full whiff is also not off the table, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 what I'm seeing on the GFS and Euro is a broadening of the precip shield over the last couple runs sure the slp are pretty weak, but the models are squeezing out more....so why? well, I think it's the NINO and pineapple express, JR. at work which the models are only now catching up with I think the wound up solution the Euro had isn't coming back, but I do think we have a reasonable shot of getting a light to moderate event as an example, the Euro on last night's run (a 15-18 hour forecast) had today's qpf for DCA, IAD, and BWI respectively: .09, .07, and .08 what fell? again respectively at each airport: .37, .41, and .26 as of 1PM (more fell after 1PM at BWI so I expect that .26 to go a bit higher point is, we have had very few precip busts this year and OCT and NOV were AN precip and BWI with DEC well on its way for the same, so I think we see the models increase the intensity of their broadening field of qpf as we get closer if the seasonal trend holds with this event, and I don't see why it won't, though it has to fail eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It was posted here...I responded here...all is well. Now back to the storm..... Nut. And once again, in the future take it to banter. 'tracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 what I'm seeing on the GFS and Euro is a broadening of the precip shield over the last couple runs sure the slp are pretty weak, but the models are squeezing out more....so why? well, I think it's the NINO and pineapple express, JR. at work which the models are only now catching up with I think the wound up solution the Euro had isn't coming back, but I do think we have a reasonable shot of getting a light to moderate event as an example, the Euro on last night's run (a 15-18 hour forecast) had today's qpf for DCA, IAD, and BWI respectively: .09, .07, and .08 what fell? again respectively at each airport: .37, .41, and .26 as of 1PM (more fell after 1PM at BWI so I expect that .26 to go a bit higher point is, we have had very few precip busts this year and OCT and NOV were AN precip and BWI with DEC well on its way for the same, so I think we see the models increase the intensity of their broadening field of qpf as we get closer if the seasonal trend holds with this event, and I don't see why it won't, though it has to fail eventually we have done well with precip time and time again lately. def worth considering.. tho not sure the low levels will cooperate for us. congrats mapgirl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 we have done well with precip time and time again lately. def worth considering.. tho not sure the low levels will cooperate for us. congrats mapgirl? I'm not so sure we even need to mention mapgirl anymore.....at some point we stopped with the "congrats jonjon" and I think she's just about reached that status lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm not so sure we even need to mention mapgirl anymore.....at some point we stopped with the "congrats jonjon" and I think she's just about reached that status lol woo! go me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles unimpressive. More support for weak/sheared/south solution. Meteogram isn't out yet but mean precip of around .30-.35 or so. Continues to decline run over run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Pretty certain we have some form of low in a good location. Question will be how much qpf and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles unimpressive. More support for weak/sheared/south solution. Meteogram isn't out yet but mean precip of around .30-.35 or so. Continues to decline run over run. yeah a little bit drier than last run but still looks better than op.. except it starts early and the sfc is a torch during the day sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Ahh 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Favored area is sw-central va up the i81 corridor but there are few big hits left on the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You would think that it wouldn't take much to turn this into something bigger. Am I reading this correctly.......the Canadian ens is wetter than the GFS ens even though the Canadian had almost nothing for a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You would think that it wouldn't take much to turn this into something bigger. Am I reading this correctly.......the Canadian ens is wetter than the GFS ens even though the Canadian had almost nothing for a storm? it's wetter but it's also wet.. like no snow for anyone in this forum pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 it's wetter but it's also wet.. like no snow for anyone in this forum pretty much The euro ensembles pretty much pulled the plug on their support for anything much more than the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Good news is 18z GFS holds off till overnight. That's pretty much all the good news on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Para gives us about 5 minutes of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Para gives us about 5 minutes of precip LOL, was just looking at that. Massive hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 No model shows a closed 500mb low over Arkansas now. Best we can hope for is 1-3. 21 page thread is going to pay off with about 1 page for every .1" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The euro ensembles pretty much pulled the plug on their support for anything much more than the euro Lol.... Well at least the ensembles were consistent. They supported the Euro op during the good runs and now are supporting the crap Euro op run. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 To the Euro.....if it happens that way.The gfs had an Ohio valley track for days. If this ends up squashed it's a fail for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The gfs had an Ohio valley track for days. If this ends up squashed it's a fail for both. considering the Euro spit out about a quarter of the qpf that fell today at DCA/BWI/IAD in last night's 0Z run and a hair more than a third of what it showed on the 12Z run this morning (we're talking the 6 hour period after the run time....before it was even published no less!), we shouldn't be surprised about flip flops by the models 5-7 days out.....but we can be depressed, that's acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No model shows a closed 500mb low over Arkansas now. Best we can hope for is 1-3. 21 page thread is going to pay off with about 1 page for every .1" of snow. That's bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The euro really blew this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The euro really blew this one PGFS=Broke clock is right twice a day? Too bad with the timing for the holidays however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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