Ian Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The euro really blew this one unless it crushes you at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The euro really blew this one It was a mistake for CWG to hype this yesterday morning... I wouldn't have done it if it were up to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It was a mistake for CWG to hype this yesterday morning... I wouldn't have done it if it were up to me. CWG did not hype it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We are still a long way out on this. Probably foolish to declare anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The euro really blew this one The trend on the euro for months has been to over amplify systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The trend on the euro for months has been to over amplify systems. It seemingly has done this often over the past 2 winters...and looks to be off to a start this year. But, still hasn't happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 CWG did not hype it... Hate to break it to you, but yeah, they hyped it when they talked up the chance of a snowstorm when it was still 6 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Hate to break it to you, but yeah, they hyped it when they talked up the chance of a snowstorm when it was still 6 days away. Oh, didn't realize it was set in stone that the storm wasn't happening. Cool, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Hate to break it to you, but yeah, they hyped it when they talked up the chance of a snowstorm when it was still 6 days away. Kinda surprising if thats the case...not good odds when there is nothing more than marginal cold showing up in the models till after Xmas, and the Euro was mostly on its own with its "locked in" more wrapped up coastal solution 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 We are still a long way out on this. Probably foolish to declare anything. It really is, but the feel isn't right with this one. I was hopped up on it for a while, but man...I dunno. It's early yet and it's silly to throw in the towel on a Tuesday night for a Saturday night storm...we've seen things come back big time in less time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Oh, didn't realize it was set in stone that the storm wasn't happening. Cool, thanks! I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm just saying it was irresponsible to be so bullish about it 6 days out, with a big headline saying Winter storm possible next weekend for Mid-Atlantic, when the chance of it realistically happening was very small, especially with a Naso good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Hate to break it to you, but yeah, they hyped it when they talked up the chance of a snowstorm when it was still 6 days away. it was a bit surprisingly bullish imo.. a number of usually bearish people were bullish though. but i swear the euro does that crap all the time.. people just forget or ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm just saying it was irresponsible to be so bullish about it 6 days out, with a big headline saying Winter storm possible next weekend for Mid-Atlantic, when the chance of it realistically happening was very small, especially with a Naso good setup. This stuff really belongs in the banter thread, but I have to say: for one thing it's not like it was put on the front page or anything. It's intended audience was more weather geeks, then people looking for a forecast. That's why the article was written with ambiguity as to the outcome. I think they also found it important to alert people that they should keep an eye on the forecast, especially with more travel than usual in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The xmas bomb is a much more interesting system, not snow but the wind could have a major impact, especially for NJ and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 it was a bit surprisingly bullish imo.. a number of usually bearish people were bullish though. but i swear the euro does that crap all the time.. people just forget or ignore it. I didn't believe you on Sunday when you kept referencing the fantasy Euro snow. I know I've seen it before but it just pulled me right back in...I'm so foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It really is, but the feel isn't right with this one. I was hopped up on it for a while, but man...I dunno. It's early yet and it's silly to throw in the towel on a Tuesday night for a Saturday night storm...we've seen things come back big time in less time last year we had a few that looked dead and came back near the end if memory serves, so I'm not throwing in the towel on this, but I do believe the wound up system is probably not going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It really is, but the feel isn't right with this one. I was hopped up on it for a while, but man...I dunno. It's early yet and it's silly to throw in the towel on a Tuesday night for a Saturday night storm...we've seen things come back big time in less time The part that never felt right was the fact that it was one model vs the rest. But, like you said, silly to give up yet. There were a couple of ens members that looked good, especially P003 (though I'm not sure I can post that ). I'm not sure where the key player in whether this is flat vs amped is. You have to think it's far enough away that it's final form is in doubt, whatever that piece is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 last year we had a few that looked dead and came back near the end if memory serves, so I'm not throwing in the towel on this, but I do believe the wound up system is probably not going to happen I want to be optimistic but I don't remember a Euro give away ever coming back. Perhaps there is one, idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I want to be optimistic but I don't remember a Euro give away ever coming back. Perhaps there is one, idk A come back in some fashion is totally reasonable at this lead still. I could see a .3 - .5 qpf event still being on the table. It's a miller A and we've had no qpf problems lately for the most part. If things look bleak at 72 hours then things are bleak. It's not really a short lead reverse bust kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I want to be optimistic but I don't remember a Euro give away ever coming back. Perhaps there is one, idk there was one storm in particular that I'm thinking about that was first proged to hit us, then proged north I specifically remember saying "once they are proged north, they never come back south" sure enough it did I'm sure Matt would remember which one I'm talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 A come back in some fashion is totally reasonable at this lead still. I could see a .3 - .5 qpf event still being on the table. It's a miller A and we've had no qpf problems lately for the most part. If things look bleak at 72 hours then things are bleak. It's not really a short lead reverse bust kind of setup. True. A 0.5 event with cooperating temps is a sig event...everywhere. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 A come back in some fashion is totally reasonable at this lead still. I could see a .3 - .5 qpf event still being on the table. It's a miller A and we've had no qpf problems lately for the most part. If things look bleak at 72 hours then things are bleak. It's not really a short lead reverse bust kind of setup. that's the best case in my mind now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 that's the best case in my mind now too I don't know if that's the best case at this point but it is what I'm thinking also. Maybe I'm a little ambitious but I could see .5 across the board with maybe a last minute bump to .6-.7 for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 OK, I'll say it......NAM, if correct, wouldn't be so bad temps iffy, but some better returns on radar at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 OK, I'll say it......NAM, if correct, wouldn't be so bad temps iffy, but some better returns on radar at 84 hrs Glad you said it. I saw it and wanted to post but didn't feel it was worthy. Someone would say it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Glad you said it. I saw it and wanted to post but didn't feel it was worthy. Someone would say it's the NAM The NAM is too flat for what you want at this range, the NAM is a very amped/west/north model at 84 hours, its not really THAT amped...if you wanted to see a snow event you'd almost want to see the NAM right now on the verge of giving you rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The NAM is too flat for what you want at this range, the NAM is a very amped/west/north model at 84 hours, its not really THAT amped...if you wanted to see a snow event you'd almost want to see the NAM right now on the verge of giving you rain. Appreciate the insight. Just grabbing for straws at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The NAM is too flat for what you want at this range, the NAM is a very amped/west/north model at 84 hours, its not really THAT amped...if you wanted to see a snow event you'd almost want to see the NAM right now on the verge of giving you rain. trust me, down here when the NAM calls for rain vs. snow at any range, we get the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The NAM is too flat for what you want at this range, the NAM is a very amped/west/north model at 84 hours, its not really THAT amped...if you wanted to see a snow event you'd almost want to see the NAM right now on the verge of giving you rain. Yep, h5 is pretty unimpressive for the nam. The euro's treble hook in the lips runs had the vort cranking and closing off. That's off the table obviously. Consensus now shows the vort flattening at it moves east of the ms river. Our last grasp is a piece from the northern stream modestly energizing it or simply being more amped up when slp gets going down by the gulf so the storm has a little more oomph as it starts heading ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The NAM does have a nice batch of precip moving up from the sw. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.