Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Oh, to be atop the Helderberg Escarpment for this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 you love storms like this….enjoy! Going to be cool seeing that firehose coming off the atlantic These hybrid developments that originate over the Gulf Stream can really pack a punch. I don't have one of these charts for the Euro which is even further west than the CMC/GFS are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 These hybrid developments that originate over the Gulf Stream can really pack a punch. I don't have one of these charts for the Euro which is even further west than the CMC is showing. 74.phase1.png What do you think the winds will be like for costal sections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 40-50 MPH for the coast probably in gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Looks like a nice storm setting up then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 40-50 MPH for the coast probably in gustsMore like sustained. Gust 60-70First verifying high wind warning type event since Sandy at the coast. Inland it's an advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 What do you think the winds will be like for costal sections? The current Euro run looks like the best chance of wind gusts to 50 mph or higher will be east of NYC where the winds can go more E to ENE. But we'll have to watch later runs for the exact track of the low. When we get under 48hrs the more specific details will come into better focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Any upslope in the poconos or NW nj higher terrain? As it stands right now I would think areas above 2000. So really only the top of the Pocono plateau. The Catskills Ulster county north. The Berkshire and southern Greens would be the jackpot areas above 3000 where you would see multiple foot amounts. This occurred in the 1992 nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS 12Z Total Snowfall thru Sun Dec 14th http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120612/gfs_asnow_neus_33.png loop http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120612/gfs_asnow_neus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The current Euro run looks like the best chance of wind gusts to 50 mph or higher will be east of NYC where the winds can go more E to ENE. But we'll have to watch later runs for the exact track of the low. When we get under 48hrs the more specific details will come into better focus. The Euro thinks there could be some 60 mph gusts from the Hamptons east towards Montauk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The Euro thinks there could be some 60 mph gusts from the Hamptons east towards Montauk Warm seclusion events tend to over produce in regards to what's modeled. If that's in fact what we do see 60+ gusts right at the coast are a good possibility. There's a ton of energy here and a nice pressure gradient with a weak inversion. My confidence is increasing for a nice HWW event. March 2010 was predicted to be a run of the mill advisory type event right up to 24 hours. We had solid hurricane force gusts for hours in long beach. Second only to Sandy. Two blocks from my current location in Wantagh a gas station awning blew off. Real deal stuff. Not saying we see anything like that but 60mph gusts definitely get the trees moving It will also be interesting to see how the public reacts to any coastal impacts in the post sandy world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Euro mean looks east of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The strong winds aloft go well inland into NJ on the Euro. This wouldn't just be a coastal issue. We're talking 50kts plus at KMKU @ 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Euro mean looks east of the opSee Earthligts post. Unusable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 Nam is impressive looking with structure, CCB, and winds....thru hr.84 temps still a touch warm though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 18z NAM crushes the interior with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 18z NAM crushes the interior with the CCB. Temps are 36-40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Temps are 36-40 degrees.850's are below freezing once NW of 287. That's a wet paste bomb for places like Mt Pocono and Sussex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 By interior we're talking at least 25 miles NW of the city. I know some New Yorkers think the interior starts at the GWB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Plenty of time to go for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Plenty of time to go for this storm. Yep...either going to get a boatload of rain or maybe slightly less rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 By interior we're talking at least 25 miles NW of the city. I know some New Yorkers think the interior starts at the GWB. And some people think Interior means the Poconos or Vermont so be more specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yep...either going to get a boatload of rain or maybe slightly less rain. Ok Nostradamus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Ok Nostradamus Actually not only was his response funny it was accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 If the storm cuts off south of LI or takes an inland track there could be some nasty beach erosion and flooding, and obviously lots of rain. That'll be the story around these parts, not the snow unless you live on High Point, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Looks like its going to be rain for the duration. Only things to key on now is how much rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Looks like a long duration light to moderate rain on the 18z GFS. It also shows a very heavy snow event for NWCT and western MA as well as parts of southern NY state. Anywhere else (yes, even those NW suburbs 25 miles away or more) are just a sloppy mix with maybe 3-4 inches in parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 If the storm cuts off south of LI or takes an inland track there could be some nasty beach erosion and flooding, and obviously lots of rain. That'll be the story around these parts, not the snow unless you live on High Point, NJ. Looks like its going to be rain for the duration. Only things to key on now is how much rain? As per WPC it looks pretty wet with NYC near the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Looks like a long duration light to moderate rain on the 18z GFS. It also shows a very heavy snow event for NWCT and western MA as well as parts of southern NY state. Anywhere else (yes, even those NW suburbs 25 miles away or more) are just a sloppy mix with maybe 3-4 inches in parts 0 Z run will be telling tonight on the GFS. It maybe onto something with not taking this "nuke bomb" right over the big apple. Also looks to be a little more than 3 or 4 inches in the interior. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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