Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Th GFS is likely still trending toward the better models ....so probably not much point in analyzing the minutia of this run.Canadian and GFS are very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Well that's a strange evolution. Low heads up the CT river BDL-Springfield then cuts NE to CON and 50 miles north of the southern end of the MA/NH border, then loops over KLEW and tracks ESE after that. Most get some sort of back end snow(Assuming you don't take it's surface temp verbatim, which you shouldn't because it sucks with temps and has a really bad warm bias. Light amounts mostly) by hour 114. Will post maps when ones I can share are out. (OT, but can I post non-ECMWF WxBell maps? It's OK on WxBell's end, IDK what that means for here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Canadian and GFS are very warm AWT they would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 AWT they would be I wouldn't use either of those models for temp profiles. IMO, Stick with the EURO/ens for now and then blend in short range guidance as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Thermals on those two models are abysmal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I wouldn't use either of those models for temp profiles. IMO, Stick with the EURO/ens for now and then blend in short range guidance as we get closer. Thermals on those two models are abysmal Violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Well the GFS wasn't warm here that I could see. The RGEM is often toasty. But with that track obviously its gonna be warm in NE AWT they would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Even for here we are getting high pressure in western ny state but still just not cold enough. Monday might be close but keep thowing low pressures at cold highs for the next 8 weeeks and we will be having a ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 UKMET 96 hrs closed 500 low centered at RDU, 998 low Delaware, 120 hours closed 500 low Toms River, NJ, 998 low Tom's River. 144 hours closed 500 low Boston, 1000 low Boston. Fixed that...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 UKMET 72 hrs closed 500 low centered at RDU, 998 low Delaware, 96 hours closed 500 low Toms River, NJ, 998 low Tom's River. 120 hours closed 500 low Boston, 1000 low Boston. I'm seeing all those pushed back 24 hours, quite possibly my computer being strange again though. Here's hours 72-144, let me know which is correct. 72 96 120 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah I fixed it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Pretty good conscensus.....the solution sucks (sorry Tip, and that obscure met from Nashua). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Pretty good conscensus.....the solution sucks (sorry Tip, and that obscure met from Nashua). A 12/9/05 redux will have to wait. We are a year too early anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Euro occludes near NYC, then drifts ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Euro occludes near NYC, then drifts ENE. The storm last from hour 96-150 lol It just sits and spins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I can't recall a storm like this that sort of developed from a remnant boundary to our south and then back NW after being forced south.what a strange storm. Euro 0z run was Interesting the fact that it stalls like that. If anything it's not a bad spot to stall for some CCB, even for NYC! But what if we end up getting a benchmark stall we could get a lot more wintry. For now it looks like rain and heavy at that maybe some wrap around moisture which I never really like (according to Upton we should get some wrap around snow showers tomorrow night but I never believe in that in this part of the region, maybe in the Midwest) but CCB could drop some good snows in this part of the region when storms stall. Let's see if the storm could really just stall for a bit and strengthen there, and that's how we'll cool all layers resulting CCB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 But what if we end up getting a benchmark stall we could get a lot more wintry. One of these years we'll get a storm to do a nice benchmark loop... not this one though unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 One of these years we'll get a storm to do a nice benchmark loop... not this one though unfortunately. 96 hours is an eternity, this thing could easily shift 50-100 miles still if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 One of these years we'll get a storm to do a nice benchmark loop... not this one though unfortunately.yeah I forget which one we had not too long ago. But it was great tracking it. Still type interested for this system my main hype is almost gone though. Imagine the models just start settling for a benchmark stall, tomorrow 12z runs would be interesting (usually if models about to start changing their track it would be 60-72hrs, but not expecting much but winter is going to be long and I'm ready to track all of potentials, but sometimes I just think of all the sleepless nights over this and I start sweating. Eventually, I realize it's all worth it at the end, especially when we end up getting a full blown blizzard! Good night everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 That run gets wet for PF too. I'd prefer the 6z GFS right now. A little front end thump before the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Upstate NY could be cut off for days if the Euro verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Mother of all front end dumps for CNE and NNE on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Upstate NY could be cut off for days if the Euro verified. Saratoga Springs, ftw. All of us in SNE, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Too bad it's not all snow. Regardless, nice long-duration system.. Monday Night: Snow likely. Patchy fog. Not as cool. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent.Tuesday: Rain and snow. Not as cool with highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.Tuesday Night: Rain likely with a chance of snow. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s.Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Mother of all front end dumps for CNE and NNE on the GFS. Yeah was just looking at that...would be pretty crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah was just looking at that...would be pretty crushing. Literally a 6hr pounding and then dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Literally a 6hr pounding and then dryslot. As that moisture pushes on-shore, quick 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 untitled.JPG Congrats on 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah though Saratoga might have issues with rain ..having no elevation, for awhile.... Out here elevated 25 miles west of ALB I feel pretty good now with the Euro track, but obviously very close. 700, 850 and 925 temps never get >0C here on the six hour panels anyway. The precip comes in with a vengeance in the 84-90 hr time frame and dynamics alone I would think favor a big snow thump. Then warmer air pollutes some and the best CCB also shifts into Central NY for awhile. Then our low goes through several lives and there is more backside snow. Now if it gets crazier and try to track he low inland and west of NYC then it's gonna be a lot less favorable. Saratoga Springs, ftw. All of us in SNE, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 [DIT] Rain to Montreal![DIT] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.