powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Congrats on 12+. I like snow to rain to snow at this point. GGEM was like a couple feet in the Adirondacks. Big risk/reward with this storm. The backside is when someone will really clean up if it sets up in the right spot. That's the Greens best synoptic set-up, deformation or wrap around precip coupled with upslope. Really a shame this storm wasn't happening with 5-10F colder across the board from Philly northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah though Saratoga might have issues with rain ..having no elevation, for awhile.... Out here elevated 25 miles west of ALB I feel pretty good now with the Euro track, but obviously very close. 700, 850 and 925 temps never get >0C here on the six hour panels anyway. The precip comes in with a vengeance in the 84-90 hr time frame and dynamics alone I would think favor a big snow thump. Then warmer air pollutes some and the best CCB also shifts into Central NY for awhile. Then our low goes through several lives and there is more backside snow. Now if it gets crazier and try to track he low inland and west of NYC then it's gonna be a lot less favorable. Of course, if it can go 50 miles east, I'll fare a lot better. As it stands now, I'd rather be in IA (as I will be) than being here in a driving rainstorm while have it snowing so nearby (which could well be the case). Meanwhile, I'll enjoy whatever remains of this morning's wintry appeal. 31.2/31 zr- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 If you get a period where temps are shaky enough for some rain...its probably after the big snow thump when there isn't much qpf anyway. Then you get all the backside and upslope. All I can say is darn few lows taking a track from western LI to the Maine Coast don't dump heavy snow on Stowe. I like snow to rain to snow at this point. GGEM was like a couple feet in the Adirondacks. Big risk/reward with this storm. The backside is when someone will really clean up if it sets up in the right spot. That's the Greens best synoptic set-up, deformation or wrap around precip coupled with upslope. Really a shame this storm wasn't happening with 5-10F colder across the board from Philly northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 If you get a period where temps are shaky enough for some rain...its probably after the big snow thump when there isn't much qpf anyway. Then you get all the backside and upslope. All I can say is darn few lows taking a track from western LI to the Maine Coast don't dump heavy snow on Stowe. With the storm just petering out as it exits, wouldn't that limit the upslope potential (as currently tracked)? I'd have thought there's need to be more back end winds. I'm probably missing something, so thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'm no expert on Upslope...I'm PF has the answer. With the storm just petering out as it exits, wouldn't that limit the upslope potential (as currently tracked)? I'd have thought there's need to be more back end winds. I'm probably missing something, so thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 We still looking good for some accumulating snow on the backside in SNE? How were the Euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 With the storm just petering out as it exits, wouldn't that limit the upslope potential (as currently tracked)? I'd have thought there's need to be more back end winds. I'm probably missing something, so thanks for clarifying. Yeah you are right depending on the situation...though there is a lot of residual moisture and even a broad cyclonic flow should make something happen. Of course you want more like 30-50kts at 850mb but even 20-30kts can work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 We still looking good for some accumulating snow on the backside in SNE? How were the Euro ens? Ensembles tucked it in near LI too and then wobbled east. Given how fickle backside snows are, I wouldn't get your hopes up for that at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Ensembles tucked it in near LI too and then wobbled east. Given how fickle backside snows are, I wouldn't get your hopes up for that at the moment. So the big signal for that ..that was there yesterday is no longer there? I guess what I'm asking is..is there no doubt this is all or mostly rain for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 So the big signal for that ..that was there yesterday is no longer there? Well depends on where you are. Verbatim it was better yesterday, but it's too early to worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Torch SSTs not helping, subtropical air mass origin not helping, retreating high not helping. Congrats Rick,Pete MPM PF Dryslot, broken crackers and dried up pieces of cheese leftovers for me. Occludes very fast, could produce those spots of localized heavy snow but the rain in Maine falls mainly on the plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 So from what I'm gathering..even when the Euro does its inevitable shift east..it won't matter for sensible outcomes as far as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 PF I am not being sarcastic, congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 So from what I'm gathering..even when the Euro does its inevitable shift east..it won't matter for sensible outcomes as far as snow. Well it would matter as far as any wrap around snows. The fact that this almost stalls means that if a well established TROWAL can form, you could gather a little bit at the end. But again, the details on that are worthless at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 00z Euro was good for backside snow in SNE...the 5H track goes underneath and then swings up into E SNE...that would give us a period of solid snow after the rain. You wouldn't forecast it given it is 5 days out by the time the ULL swings underneath, but that's going to be the best shot I think for accumulating snows outside of the NNE mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 You wouldn't forecast it given it is 5 days out by the time the ULL swings underneath We will have been tracking this thing for 10 days by the time we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Will brings up a good point.. And it's a Ginx-ism..but every time in the winter that we get an ULL to swing out underneath..good things snow wise always happen. So if in fact this thing does track over LI or south..then you can probably grab 2-4 or 3-6 if it all works out correctly. It's something the wx community in the media should at least mention as a possibility..while not forecasting it yet..so when you suddenly have to add accumulating snow to the forecast Wednesday..the public isn't startled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Will brings up a good point.. And it's a Ginx-ism..but every time in the winter that we get an ULL to swing out underneath..good things snow wise always happen. So if in fact this thing does track over LI or south..then you can probably grab 2-4 or 3-6 if it all works out correctly. It's something the wx community in the media should at least mention as a possibility..while not forecasting it yet..so when you suddenly have to add accumulating snow to the forecast Wednesday..the public isn't startled It's not worth getting into details. You need that low to stay southeast for anything meaningful. We don't even know where the surface low tracks and you are worried about backside snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 It's not worth getting into details. You need that low to stay southeast for anything meaningful. We don't even know where the surface low tracks and you are worried about backside snows? I'm worried about getting some snow yes..I'd like to have some. Sounds like you're more worried about plain ole backsides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I know it's early, but I think this pattern has already gotten to scooter. Very catankerous here in the early going lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I know it's early, but I think this pattern has already gotten to scooter. Very catankerous here in the early going lol I don't know what I said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Using terms like every time and always is a good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'm worried about getting some snow yes..I'd like to have some. Sounds like you're more worried about plain ole backsides All I am saying is that yes it's possible, but also highly dependent on the track. I guess my point is to not concern yourself yet with those details of backlash snow since those aren't easy to come by in the first place. A storm evolution like this is conducive to it, but position is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 TROWALs are great, but they rank up there with NORLUNs as far as a done deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I don't know what I said? Just in general....you seem a little more irascible than previous years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Just in general....you seem a little more irascible than previous years.lol cranky old man, kids will do that,lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Just in general....you seem a little more irascible than previous years. I've seen the relaxation coming for awhile now, so I don't have any issues when climo sort of stinks for us anyways. It seems that whenever you put forth ideas not favorable to cold and snow, the masses get upset, but it is what it is. I'm not going to sugar coat anything. All I said to Kevin was that it's probably not worth getting picky on something that isn't exactly easy to come by in the first place. Yes it could happen, but if the low stalls overhead, you'll get clouds and the ocnl flurry. Since we aren't even sure where the low tracks, I probably would not worry about it quite yet. I don't know how that could come across as the "pattern getting to me." If anything, long range looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'd say the ULL stuff is normally good but this thing occludes so fast and injects so much dry air it's unusual as progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'd say the ULL stuff is normally good but this thing occludes so fast and injects so much dry air it's unusual as progged Well it depends on what you want. A stalled storm to the east can cause those banded looks of snow to pivot down and you grab an inch, maybe two. A more concentrated TROWAL and you can get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I've seen the relaxation coming for awhile now, so I don't have any issues when climo sort of stinks for us anyways. It seems that whenever you put forth ideas not favorable to cold and snow, the masses get upset, but it is what it is. I'm not going to sugar coat anything. All I said to Kevin was that it's probably not worth getting picky on something that isn't exactly easy to come by in the first place. Yes it could happen, but if the low stalls overhead, you'll get clouds and the ocnl flurry. Since we aren't even sure where the low tracks, I probably would not worry about it quite yet. I don't know how that could come across as the "pattern getting to me." If anything, long range looks promising.Perhaps irascible and catankerous weren't the best words because of the negative connotation attached to them......since you've joined the board, you've grown more demonsteative, or expressive.....unreserved if you will. A few years ago you would have been more focused on trying to assuage the angst by accentuating how it could end up favorably....now its simply "rain, b1tch"....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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