Thanksgiving Week Storm (Wed/Wed night)

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah, shes coming. I see no reasons to cut back on my snowfall map yet.

Last night, the heavies was focused in s ORH co and n CT, not its nw ORH co and SW NH, but not much has changed for us.

Jackpot just west of us instead of sw.

[TalcottWx]

Near perfect map by NECN

[40/70 Benchmark]

Oct 11

??

[TalcottWx]

Last night, the heavies was focused in s ORH co and n CT, not its nw ORH co and SW NH, but not much has changed for us.

Jackpot just west of us instead of sw.

I always had the feeling that would happen with the warm punch. Didn't make sense to me to think someone south of us would jack. Although, I could see a scenario where ORH doesn't ping. I think N ORH cnty north to dendrite to the nh seacoast and southern maine look really really good.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

What's the consensus on travel up I93 towards NH and into the ski regions off I93 late afternoon evening? 

[TalcottWx]

What's the consensus on travel up I93 towards NH and into the ski regions off I93 late afternoon evening? 

Clinch Leatherwood? Who are you, lol?

[N. OF PIKE]

What's the consensus on travel up I93 towards NH and into the ski regions off I93 late afternoon evening? 

earlier the better, cweat/messenger

 

Bretton woods or loon?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Near perfect map by NECN

Def. best map....by far.

[TalcottWx]

Def. best map....by far.

Gun to head 1-3" BOS Logan

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

So I'm going to be missing pretty much the meat of the storm being at work 11-4 tomorrow, regardless of what its doing outside.

Final call 1" of slop here

[NorEastermass128]

What's the consensus on travel up I93 towards NH and into the ski regions off I93 late afternoon evening? 

Hope you have AWD.  

I'm jealous...love NH in the snow.

[Ginx snewx]

??

RGEM

[Boston Bulldog]

earlier the better, cweat/messenger

 

Bretton woods or loon?

Loon for sure. Wildcat if he can reach it.

[MarkO]

I told the wife and family to leave by 11.

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro has had the sleet punched to ORH-BED or even slightly further for like 2 days now...there was one run that was much warmer, but outside of that, this hasn't been very surprising.

 

The only surprises were from those that:

 

1. Bought the colder solutions from the NAM and other models outside of the their useful range

2. The QPF queens north and west of the max modeled QPF that were told for days they would do fine...now its showing up more on the colored maps

 

 

The most uncertain area always been near BOS or just west of them and down toward like N RI and into parts of interior CT...the trend in stronger northerly drain makes me think that 128 and even a bit closer to BOS could rip for a while tomorrow before flipping.

 

The only question is how long to the mid-levels hold on...anyone west of the CF is going to rip their way to 32F S/S+ if the precip is intense. I don't care that one of the worst models in the NWP suite for low level temps says it will be 38F at the surface...use the guidance wisely, not at face value. If you want to use the GFS sfc temps at face value, you are on your own.

 

 

We'll see if the Euro drastically changes...my guess is no.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gun to head 1-3" BOS Logan

2-5" from Boston throughout se MA.

[SR Airglow]

Agreed that that's a great map from NECN

 

And don't know what BOX is talking about in their twitter, NAM was significantly cooler(We all agree on that) and GFS a little bit cooler(controversial, but I think we can all agree it wasn't warmer, could argue that it was similar to 18z I suppose.).

[40/70 Benchmark]

The Euro has had the sleet punched to ORH-BED or even slightly further for like 2 days now...there was one run that was much warmer, but outside of that, this hasn't been very surprising.

 

The only surprises were from those that:

 

1. Bought the colder solutions from the NAM and other models outside of the their useful range

2. The QPF queens north and west of the max modeled QPF that were told for days they would do fine...now its showing up more on the colored maps

 

 

The most uncertain area always been near BOS or just west of them and down toward like N RI and into parts of interior CT...the trend in stronger northerly drain makes me think that 128 and even a bit closer to BOS could rip for a while tomorrow before flipping.

 

The only question is how long to the mid-levels hold on...anyone west of the CF is going to rip their way to 32F S/S+ if the precip is intense. I don't care that one of the worst models in the NWP suite for low level temps says it will be 38F at the surface...use the guidance wisely, not at face value.

 

 

We'll see if the Euro drastically changes...my guess is no.

Agree 1000%.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It's all about the taint

The taint

The taint

Don't talk about the powder

[weatherMA]

Agreed that that's a great map from NECN

And don't know what BOX is talking about in their twitter, NAM was significantly cooler(We all agree on that) and GFS a little bit cooler(controversial, but I think we can all agree it wasn't warmer, could argue that it was similar to 18z I suppose.).

They were probably comparing to 12z, not 18z?

[Bostonseminole]

The Euro has had the sleet punched to ORH-BED or even slightly further for like 2 days now...there was one run that was much warmer, but outside of that, this hasn't been very surprising.

 

The only surprises were from those that:

 

1. Bought the colder solutions from the NAM and other models outside of the their useful range

2. The QPF queens north and west of the max modeled QPF that were told for days they would do fine...now its showing up more on the colored maps

 

 

The most uncertain area always been near BOS or just west of them and down toward like N RI and into parts of interior CT...the trend in stronger northerly drain makes me think that 128 and even a bit closer to BOS could rip for a while tomorrow before flipping.

 

The only question is how long to the mid-levels hold on...anyone west of the CF is going to rip their way to 32F S/S+ if the precip is intense. I don't care that one of the worst models in the NWP suite for low level temps says it will be 38F at the surface...use the guidance wisely, not at face value. If you want to use the GFS sfc temps at face value, you are on your own.

 

 

We'll see if the Euro drastically changes...my guess is no.

well said..

 

wonder if we have some CF queens..Ray? me? NEMass128.. Roosta..

[HoarfrostHubb]

31.9/30 here

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's all about the taint

The taint

The taint

Don't talk about the powder

That's uglier than winter 2011-'12.

[TalcottWx]

2-5" from Boston throughout se MA.

I can see the sw flow comparison. That dryslot at 7h almost matches the warm punch. Makes you think big time front end thump. Minimal qpf after mix for those who do in southern/eastern new england?

[dryslot]

The Euro has had the sleet punched to ORH-BED or even slightly further for like 2 days now...there was one run that was much warmer, but outside of that, this hasn't been very surprising.

 

The only surprises were from those that:

 

1. Bought the colder solutions from the NAM and other models outside of the their useful range

2. The QPF queens north and west of the max modeled QPF that were told for days they would do fine...now its showing up more on the colored maps

 

 

The most uncertain area always been near BOS or just west of them and down toward like N RI and into parts of interior CT...the trend in stronger northerly drain makes me think that 128 and even a bit closer to BOS could rip for a while tomorrow before flipping.

 

The only question is how long to the mid-levels hold on...anyone west of the CF is going to rip their way to 32F S/S+ if the precip is intense. I don't care that one of the worst models in the NWP suite for low level temps says it will be 38F at the surface...use the guidance wisely, not at face value. If you want to use the GFS sfc temps at face value, you are on your own.

 

 

We'll see if the Euro drastically changes...my guess is no.

 

Good post

[dendrite]

31.9/30 here

That'll mix out a bit with clouds/wind.

[HoarfrostHubb]

That'll mix out a bit with clouds/wind.

Yup. The warmth aloft will be mixed in. I can already see it waffling a little on the graph of the mesosite up the road

[SR Airglow]

They were probably comparing to 12z, not 18z?

That would make a lot more sense.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Guys it'd be Loon probably, I think we'll be able to pull it off with AWD.  It'll be worth swooshing down the hills on Thanksgiving.

[weatherwiz]

The Euro has had the sleet punched to ORH-BED or even slightly further for like 2 days now...there was one run that was much warmer, but outside of that, this hasn't been very surprising.

 

The only surprises were from those that:

 

1. Bought the colder solutions from the NAM and other models outside of the their useful range

2. The QPF queens north and west of the max modeled QPF that were told for days they would do fine...now its showing up more on the colored maps

 

 

The most uncertain area always been near BOS or just west of them and down toward like N RI and into parts of interior CT...the trend in stronger northerly drain makes me think that 128 and even a bit closer to BOS could rip for a while tomorrow before flipping.

 

The only question is how long to the mid-levels hold on...anyone west of the CF is going to rip their way to 32F S/S+ if the precip is intense. I don't care that one of the worst models in the NWP suite for low level temps says it will be 38F at the surface...use the guidance wisely, not at face value. If you want to use the GFS sfc temps at face value, you are on your own.

 

 

We'll see if the Euro drastically changes...my guess is no.

 

There is going to be a pretty nasty snowfall gradient tomorrow...not only along the CF but extending further back SW down into northern CT...just where the entire profile is cold enough for snow there will be a 2-3 hour window where snowfall rates may even approach 3'' per hour...some pretty hefty VV's on NAM/GFS/Euro.  

 

The NAM/GFS/Euro all seem pretty agreeable on a 700mb low developing and traversing right over SNE which will allow for warmer air to sneak in for sure, however, it's entirely possible much of the heaviest precip has occurred by then so it may not matter a great deal.  

 

The track of the 850 low seems much more favorable for just about everyone though and if we had a more vertically stacked system here with the 700mb low following suite there would be a swath of some really juicy totals.  

 

What seems to be hurting here is the system is undergoing it's most rapid intensification at the wrong time...this is allowing for warmer air to really surge into the system aloft...if this strengthening was occurring another 6-12 hours that would be much more beneficial.