moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 36/35 .77" so far. 38.3/37 0.86" on the local mesosite in Hubb-ville The Pit's collection bucket must be iced. .20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 my parents own a cabin on flying pond off route 41 in Mount Vernon, we visit there frequently in the summer. My uncle Warren also lives off of 41 in Vienna. beautiful country. My favorite ice-fishing lake, but I'm certainly not choosing the twisty Route 41 ahead of Rt 27 for my ride home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Yeah, I think Friday will be colder. It's a better trajectory of the airmass for us. Might be a closer call down in Zuckerland...but I'd probably still lean toward Friday there too. There's a tight gradient though on the southern end of the cold in the 2nd cold shot, but should be closer to DC/VA. The first cold shot is really extreme in the Deep South...-10 850s are all the way down to Mississippi and Alabama. I don't like the angle of the cold air though coming from the west or even WSW, which tends to moderate things and give us more downsloping. I bet the Deep South breaks some records though with radiational cooling under the 1030mb high and very cold upper air temps. Second cold shot only gets the -10C down to DC but looks pretty chilly up here. The airmasses after clippers tend to be more focused on the northern states, so we'd expect to get the brunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Most of the precip will probably be gone by the time it cools enough to flip That blows. BOX is calling for up to an inch, but it rarely plays out that way on the back end of these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Pony Tail land right on the Berkshires spine, where the weather is truly divine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 That blows. BOX is calling for up to an inch, but it rarely plays out that way on the back end of these things. My totals would probably be in the 80's every year if i would get any backside snows, As soon as the winds turn NW, See ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I still would not expect much excitement heading into the beginning of December. It's a Pacific driven pattern and all stat and dynamical guidance seem to keep a weak MJO signal in the IO and eventually moving east. If we can keep the block north of AK strong, then it probably can work out to be a serviceable pattern, especially inland. Models are back and forth with that, but the overall idea has been to keep a semblance of higher heights there. Hopefully it stays around. I'm not ruling anything out, but IMHO I don't see much of a wintry pattern overall if snow is your desire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Temp dropped a bit to 46 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Pouring! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 excuse the flash on the screen, 65.9mph then poof just a little inversion down here at ground level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I used to take frequent drives up Route 20 to Becket when I went to Westfield State College ,right on the western flank of the valley. I can't tell you how many transition zones I drove through and how many times a partly sunny day turned into upslope snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 excuse the flash on the screen, 65.9mph then poof 65.9! Nice. It was impressive for the all of 3 or 4 minutes it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 65.9! Nice. It was impressive for the all of 3 or 4 minutes it lasted. Lol yea right, nice squall, ground level was meh, tree tops were rocking though, 1.32 rain on the day, not the 2.5 advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Enthalpy obs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Eric Fisher with neat stat, ORH below 40 for 9 days per progs, longest Nov stretch in their records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Enthalpy obs! needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 That line went from ORH to Bos in 27 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Eric Fisher with neat stat, ORH below 40 for 9 days per progs, longest Nov stretch in their records. They'll need to avoid spiking above 40F during FROPA which might be tough. They are currently CAD'd at 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 My favorite ice-fishing lake, but I'm certainly not choosing the twisty Route 41 ahead of Rt 27 for my ride home. yes 27 is definitely straighter and flatter, I will sometimes go that way and cut over on Castle Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 They'll need to avoid spiking above 40F during FROPA which might be tough. They are currently CAD'd at 37. yeah I've seen many times here in the valley where you lose the inversion just prior to FROPA and you briefly mixdown the warmer air aloft before the vigorous cold air advection commences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Thought you guys here would appreciate this forecast discussion. I am in awe of this... A TROUGH OVERHEAD CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH AWELL DEPICTED RAIN-SNOW LINE ON DUAL POL IMAGERY FROM ALLEGANYCOUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH LOWVILLE. LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGEIS FALLING INTO AN AREA JUST BARELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLYWET ROADS SEEN ON AREA WEBCAMS. THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHTACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT THE EVENT SEEMSLIGHT ENOUGH TO REMOVE AN EXISTING ADVISORY. THIS WILL ALLOW FULLFOCUS ON A MUCH MORE IMPORTANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT WILL DEVELOPLATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM PREVIOUS DATASETS...ANDWILL CONTINUE WITH A HEAVY HANDED SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST...WITH SOMELOCATIONS EXPECTED TO PUT DOWN 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SEVERALHOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SCENARIO MATCHESSEVERAL NEAR RECORD SETTING EVENTS...DECEMBER 2001 TO NAMEONE. TOP 10 EVENTS FOR BUFFALO GENERALLY PUT DOWN 24 INCHES IN24 HRS. DUE TO AN EXPECTED EXTREME GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OFTHE LAKE BAND...KBUF MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT SEE THIS...BUT SEE NOREASON WHY OTHER AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE ABLE TOEXCEED 24 INCHES...AND THAT IS JUST FOR THE FIRST EVENT ENDINGSOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT ONE ON THURSDAY MAYALSO BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT THAT IS ANOTHER STORY...500MB TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW -40C...A TESTAMENT TOHOW UNUSUAL THE PATTERN WILL BE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTSACROSS THE BOARD WILL BE SIMILARLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 200MB WAY OFTHE CHARTS OVER A 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY.WILL INCREASE FORECAST AMOUNTS A LITTLE...WITH UP TO 3 FEET IN THEMOST HARD HIT AREAS...MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO ANDSOUTHTOWNS...AND OVER THE TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HAVECREATED ABOUT AS TIGHT OF A GRADIENT AS POSSIBLE FROM KBUF TO THENORTHTOWNS...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO AN INCH OR SO INNIAGARA COUNTY.BLIZZARD CONSIDERATIONS...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TOPREVIOUS GUIDANCE...WITH BORDERLINE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVERWESTERN NY...AND A POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO EASTOF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO REVIEW THE POTENTIAL SETUP THISAFTERNOON. COMPARISONS TO PREVIOUS NEAR AND VERIFYING LAKE EFFECTBLIZZARDS DO NOT SHARE THE SAME PROFILE...WITH THIS EVENTAPPEARING TO BE CREATING ITS OWN STRONG WINDS WITHOUT AS MUCHSUPPORT ALOFT. THIS IS NOT A CLEAR CUT CASE...NEED SOME MORE TIME TOREVIEW THIS.&&.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...OFF LAKE ERIE...THE INTENSE LAKE SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHTHROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH CAUSING THELOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME...THE INTENSELAKE SNOWS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS... SKICOUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.ON WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO THESOUTHWEST CARRYING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK NORTH ACROSS THEBUFFALO METRO AREA. BY THIS TIME THE BAND SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENINGPHASE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER. I am right in the middle of 30+!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 That blows. BOX is calling for up to an inch, but it rarely plays out that way on the back end of these things. I don't see snow mentioned anywhere in the W Franklin Co zone or p/c forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Buffalo soldier, how cool is it to be under a LES warning and a LES watch at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 lol, snorkel skiing on Tug Hill by mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Buffalo soldier, how cool is it to be under a LES warning and a LES watch at the same time It feels amazing. I am just really worried about getting to work/training for my new position. Really hope the thruway closes. They are calling for 2-3 feet+ for this event and another 1foot+ for the next event. Crazy!! Someone from TWC is in Hamburg, I want to get on Tv! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nice Buf weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 The errors earlier at ECMWF seemed to have affected the weeklies. No weeklies today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Buffalo soldier, how cool is it to be under a LES warning and a LES watch at the same time I like the nickname Buffalo soldier! Nice Buf weather. Thanks! I will try to document this well for everyone. Might meet up with someone from PA on these forums who is up here for work staying in Hamburg, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I like the nickname Buffalo soldier! Thanks! I will try to document this well for everyone. Might meet up with someone from PA on these forums who is up here for work staying in Hamburg, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Now you're making me want to go back to Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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