TalcottWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Yup, hit 47 earlier. Looks like the warmth is going to make 1 last push up here, temps rising again. Taking a peek at models for the first time in a week or so. I like the euro towards hr 240... and later into the run. We have brief warmups, but looks like a reload is there. The same ridging we have into western na now looks to make a return. Another trof swings down from Canada. Some cold should be squeezed down south for another arctic intrusion late that run. (fwiw) Looks like the ensembles like the idea but it comes and goes pretty fast. Mean (way out) raises heights over the northeast in early December. (fwiw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Ironically we usually take the opposite of your post content too. Off to the races now--up to 32.9/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Ok just want to be clear. You are going with normal to above with little snow thru early Dec? Or am I misinterpreting your forecast? I think a little self imposed R and R from the board would be good for your mental wellbeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Ok just want to be clear. You are going with normal to above with little snow thru early Dec? Or am I misinterpreting your forecast? After thanksgiving it gets dicey. The only thing that may help out is the arctic block. That is the feature that may help bring the cold down. Otherwise I think near to AN temps through at least the 10th. Snow is more fickle then temps especially inland. I don't think it's a torch, but far from a wintry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 After thanksgiving it gets dicey. The only thing that may help out is the arctic block. That is the feature that may help bring the cold down. Otherwise I think near to AN temps through at least the 10th. Snow is more fickle then temps especially inland. I don't think it's a torch, but far from a wintry pattern. Any hints we get something more favorable mid month or later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 After thanksgiving it gets dicey. The only thing that may help out is the arctic block. That is the feature that may help bring the cold down. Otherwise I think near to AN temps through at least the 10th. Snow is more fickle then temps especially inland. I don't think it's a torch, but far from a wintry pattern. I think we start off Dec slightly above normal. We'll see where it goes from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Ensembles warmed at the end of the run today for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Ensembles warmed at the end of the run today for sure. I wonder if it really even matters in the grand scheme of things... As Drake and Jay-z say... Here today... gone tomorrow... So far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Ensembles warmed at the end of the run today for sure. They've been all over the place though. 00z will cool off as usual. I'm just going with the general look. All is well.....nothing wrong with a relaxation during a climo period that is hostile for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Ensembles warmed at the end of the run today for sure.The one thing to keep in mind is how mightily they have struggled the last month or so. Been really bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Any hints we get something more favorable mid month or later? Yeah there are hints. I think mid month give it take a week is what I would favor. I could be far off too. Maybe we sneak a 6" Snow in amid seasonable temps. Who knows, but that's my gut. Bottom line is that it's a pattern that isn't a torch, but isn't necessarily wintry. However, you can't rule out a snow event either, especially inland. We are entering the time if year where the interior can start to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Warm front is thru here. It's up to 49.7 muggy degrees. I'd be sick to my stomach if there was snow pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 The one thing to keep in mind is how mightily they have struggled the last month or so. Been really bad Just remember that for the times they flip colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Ironically we usually take the opposite of your post content too. LMAO. OT Just arrived - my Retirement package. First time I've had a smile in a very long time. I can put Insurance Co. and employer in the rearview, start concentrating on the important things in life WEATHER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yeah there are hints. I think mid month give it take a week is what I would favor. I could be far off too. Maybe we sneak a 6" Snow in amid seasonable temps. Who knows, but that's my gut. Bottom line is that it's a pattern that isn't a torch, but isn't necessarily wintry. However, you can't rule out a snow event either, especially inland. We are entering the time if year where the interior can start to do that. Yeah trying to forecast snow is pretty fruitless at that lead time...could end up above normal by a degree in the means, but you get an advisory snow event that sneaks in somehow and Blizz will jam it down your throat that you called for NO SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yeah trying to forecast snow is pretty fruitless at that lead time...could end up above normal by a degree in the means, but you get an advisory snow event that sneaks in somehow and Blizz will jam it down your throat that you called for NO SNOW. Trust me, I'm careful with my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Trust me, I'm careful with my words. lol you have to be with the spin doctor around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Nice Euro Control pre thanksgiving snowstorm for Western/Central and Northern New England. Decent agreement on a potential storm but only a few members showing a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Trust me, I'm careful with my words. lol you have to be with the spin doctor around. Come on lil' Scooty..and do the Twist..round and around and around and round...just like this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Warm front is thru here. It's up to 49.7 muggy degrees. I'd be sick to my stomach if there was snow pack Not here 37.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Nantucket about to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Still holding out at 45.3 here. Warm front just to my south. MQE and Granite Links at 51 3 and 1.5 miles to my south respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 50 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I think we start off Dec slightly above normal. We'll see where it goes from there.Me as wellBut someone will say lol wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 33F and -RA...it's been 33F since noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Not here 37.9It literally rose to 50.1 .. Stayed there for a minute and immediately dropped. Now all the way back down to 41.9. I see that happen often in the winter in these setups. With snowpack it may have risen ever so briefly to like 44 or 45 and then dropped right back to low -mid 30's. It may not be the true war front but more likely some warm air aloft right around 1,000 feet. It's an interesting phenomenon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 39.4F. Putrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Warm front is thru here. It's up to 49.7 muggy degrees. I'd be sick to my stomach if there was snow pack Warm ticks continuing here, too. Wishing the winds would turn. 33.3/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 It literally rose to 50.1 .. Stayed there for a minute and immediately dropped. Now all the way back down to 41.9. I see that happen often in the winter in these setups. With snowpack it may have risen ever so briefly to like 44 or 45 and then dropped right back to low -mid 30's. It may not be the true war front but more likely some warm air aloft right around 1,000 feet. It's an interesting phenomenon[/quoteyeah take a ride down west of 83 in Ellington and it probably never hit 40. I used to live off 83 in Ellington and saw that scenario several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 LMAO. OT Just arrived - my Retirement package. First time I've had a smile in a very long time. I can put Insurance Co. and employer in the rearview, start concentrating on the important things in life WEATHER! so happy for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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