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February Medium/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr

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it would be nice that when we have marginal events like what the Euro is depicting for next week that somebody do a play by play. that way we can all get an idea of what the model is showing as opposed to just conclusions made by some on this board. don't get me wrong I appreciate the conclusions but I also would like to know what the model depicted.

Few have little investment at this point. If it still looks like we are on the game in a couple days then every molecule will be analyzed. We'll see what 12z brings. I'm prepared for bad news piling up.

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Trust me, you guys will still come out on top with this one as always, unless it completely falls apart and than I am sure Boston will get another ho hum 10" blizzard. Besides aren't you guys already above climo for the season, it seems JI must be over 20" by now.

lol

 

We're not Boston.  The north trend isnt a lock for us and usually doesn't work.   I'm reasonably sure we will miss all 3 chances either too far north, too far south or too warm.    All these vorts, all these chances and we usually roll snake eyes. 

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Just saw the Euro model snowfall maps, lol.   It is drier and warmer like Matt said and it's folding slowly but surely.  Slow bleeds are the worst.   Still shows 7 inches of snow.   12z should be at around 3?  

I remember thinking two weeks ago that climo snow in mby was a lock...now I'm not too sure. I need 5" to reach  average.

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The pattern after mid week starts going downhill and by the 20th or so looks like the positive epo will start spreading warm air into the u.s and Canada.  The good news is the models haven't even been very good in the short range lately so even there larger scale features could be off.  The bad news is if the positive epo does hold sway with no neg nao. it will be very hard to get a snow storm. 

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The pattern after mid week starts going downhill and by the 20th or so looks like the positive epo will start spreading warm air into the u.s and Canada.  The good news is the models haven't even been very good in the short range lately so even there larger scale features could be off.  The bad news is if the positive epo does hold sway with no neg nao. it will be very hard to get a snow storm. 

Maybe the bad news isn't so bad. The kids have missed too many days of school, and many of the posters here have lost too much sleep  :P

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The pattern after mid week starts going downhill and by the 20th or so looks like the positive epo will start spreading warm air into the u.s and Canada.  The good news is the models haven't even been very good in the short range lately so even there larger scale features could be off.  The bad news is if the positive epo does hold sway with no neg nao. it will be very hard to get a snow storm. 

sounds to me like we'll be in the same place we are right now, only warmer

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lol

 

We're not Boston.  The north trend isnt a lock for us and usually doesn't work.   I'm reasonably sure we will miss all 3 chances either too far north, too far south or too warm.    All these vorts, all these chances and we usually roll snake eyes.

Lol. The city sure has turned into a snow hole compared to places 20-30 miles NW of you guys.

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The pattern after mid week starts going downhill and by the 20th or so looks like the positive epo will start spreading warm air into the u.s and Canada. The good news is the models haven't even been very good in the short range lately so even there larger scale features could be off. The bad news is if the positive epo does hold sway with no neg nao. it will be very hard to get a snow storm.

Pretty good agreement we flip aoa shortly after pres day. Looks like it has legs beyond as well. Hard to say. I'm kinda expecting it to last the rest of Feb but total guess.

We need to squeeze out every thing we can between now and then. Not off to a good start either it appears.

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Congrats Raleigh.  

 

I want off this ride.

Carolinas are gonna score with the first wave with cold locked in. By the time the following low works its way up here the cold exits stage right. It might work out for some good front end snow before it goes to rain, but the trends are bad and likely it will be the usual places that do well with that.

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Raleigh has 1.5" of snow this year. Haven't had over 2" since Boxing Day 2010.

That's fine, but done expect folks from dca and the beltways areas to feel awesome about reminders that our climo shares more in winter common with your area nowadays, and that you may cruise past our areas snowfall total this week. The last two years have been equally snow disastrous up this way.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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ECMWF gives BWI 0.76" of precipitation.  Event begins Wednesday afternoon and ends Thursday morning.  850 low is weak but passes to our east.  850 hPa temperatures warm during event but are still slightly below 0C when event ends.  Surface temperatures are in low 30s for bulk of event but warm to upper 30sThursday afternoon. 1000-500 thickness are 541 or below throughout the event.

Thanks Dallen 7908.

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sounds to me like we'll be in the same place we are right now, only warmer

But we've had snow,  most except dca and right around the city this year are right at their median or above.   The coming pattern is worse.  We still have some residual cold air that gives us some chance though I tend to agree with Matt about the euro. .   With a positive epo we'll likely be warmer than normal which will make it even harder than it's been. 

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But we've had snow,  most except dca and right around the city this year are right at their median or above.   The coming pattern is worse.  We still have some residual cold air that gives us some chance though I tend to agree with Matt about the euro. .   With a positive epo we'll likely be warmer than normal which will make it even harder than it's been. 

BWI hasn't had snow of consequence for almost 3 weeks (18 days to be exact)

that is why I used the words "right now"

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