Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAVGEM is on board sorta. 4dvar ftw? The Canadian is now too isnt it? Going with whichever gives us the least snow is usually the best play. The canadian is not on board....it looks like the GFS, but its ensembles look better than the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Shows that the models have no clue about the storm. It's a good time to let others attempt to be heroes. My guess is that the euro isn't right but who knows its ensembles seem to support it. Fast flow with lots of shortwave usually doesn't result in amplification when there is little upstream ridging. Still.......this pattern is such a tough one, pretty much any of the solutions is still on the table though right now I'd bet against the Euro. Glad I have the weekend off. If I was writing a CWG article I'd be suitably non committal. I'd bet against the euro too...it is hard enough to get snow here in a favorable setup.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Shows that the models have no clue about the storm. It's a good time to let others attempt to be heroes. My guess is that the euro isn't right but who knows its ensembles seem to support it. Fast flow with lots of shortwave usually doesn't result in amplification when there is little upstream ridging. Still.......this pattern is such a tough one, pretty much any of the solutions is still on the table though right now I'd bet against the Euro. Glad I have the weekend off. If I was writing a CWG article I'd be suitably non committal. Lol, this pattern has me rambling and saying nothing of note. Great post at the right time. And I agree, I am suspect of the Euro here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Comparing H5 on the EURO/GFS for reference. 12z EURO 96hrs: 18z GFS 90hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 As you can see, the wave that the EURO forms our storms with is already almost out in the Atlantic at 90 hours on the GFS, this is telling me the EURO is holding more energy back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'd bet against the euro too...it is hard enough to get snow here in a favorable setup.... Right, but the GFS obviously hasn't settled on which way the east coast doesn't get snow yet. There's not one ounce more clarity on what is actually going to happen today than yesterday or two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The gfs has been good, but I think right now you go with the model showing consistency. I don't know man. Usually, we'd be all over the Euro, but I have low confidence. It's really unusual to not see the GFS move toward it if it was on to something. The GFS wants nothing to do with any of this and this is probably one of the more divided model wars I've seen in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't know man. Usually, we'd be all over the Euro, but I have low confidence. It's really unusual to not see the GFS move toward it if it was on to something. The GFS wants nothing to do with any of this and this is probably one of the more divided model wars I've seen in a bit. Was just gonna post the same thing. Last year we would all be salivating over the Euro with support. But it has been pretty awful this year. Hard to commit at this point for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wes mentioned how the GEFS are showing some snow for next weekend, 18z GFS shows around 4-6" next Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm going with snow. We waste so many good setups we may as well cash in on a crap one. #chaostheory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't know man. Usually, we'd be all over the Euro, but I have low confidence. It's really unusual to not see the GFS move toward it if it was on to something. The GFS wants nothing to do with any of this and this is probably one of the more divided model wars I've seen in a bit. Well, besides the approach of calling the GFS god awful and ignoring it, what makes the most sense given the longwave pattern? We have a fast flow, low amplitude set up. Even if a wave does amplify and come north, with a total lack of blocking, and the tendency for low pressure over the lakes and highs sliding off the coast, it would take a mini miracle to get a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well, besides the approach of calling the GFS god awful and ignoring it, what makes the most sense given the longwave pattern? We have a fast flow, low amplitude set up. Even if a wave does amplify and come north, with a total lack of blocking, and the tendency for low pressure over the lakes and highs sliding off the coast, it would take a mini miracle to get a decent snow event. This is probably why the Euro is likely to be wrong. And it shows us getting snow, so there's that. I have no faith in the Euro at this juncture. I need the GFS to bend even a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is probably why the Euro is likely to be wrong. And it shows us getting snow, so there's that. I have no faith in the Euro at this juncture. I need the GFS to bend even a little bit. It bent the wrong way. At least it had a low coming up. Albeit warm and rain. And thats the problem. I think the odds are against a storm amplifying and coming up, but if it does, its going to be warmish. Best possible outcome is probably snow to rain, which the Euro has now. But just as plausible(if not more) is this thing staying flat and shearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wes mentioned how the GEFS are showing some snow for next weekend, 18z GFS shows around 4-6" next Sunday The models cant even get it right 2 days out, and you are talking about 4-6 over week away??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wes mentioned how the GEFS are showing some snow for next weekend, 18z GFS shows around 4-6" next Sunday No, I had read it was, I hadn't really looked, I should have. If it does, I wouldn't trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Is the gfs forecasting for the correct planet right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 48 hrs 18Z RGEM sure is getting the overrunning stuff a lot further north than other models (look at the 700mb RH) the color map isn't out yet, which is why I'm posting the black and white, plus, since the forecast this week is so black and white I thought it appropriate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Is the gfs forecasting for the correct planet right now? If the euro holds till Tuesday and caves while the gfs keeps showing no storm then I'm convinced the euro was hacked by someone in another subforum that you pissed off by trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's a miracle!!, one of the GFS ensemble members shows a EURO like solution! I give you, P002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 There are going to be some beautiful spring flowers coming soon, with all this rain and mild air in the forecast. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Is the gfs forecasting for the correct planet right now? The GFS and Euro have both sucked past 3 day out. They are worthless after 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 There are going to be some beautiful spring flowers coming soon, with all this rain and mild air in the forecast. :-) Can't wait to see pictures of your garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Can't wait to see pictures of your garden. LOL ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Here you go Mitch... 18z RGEM with color precip at 54 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I seriously believe the only way the mid atlantic gets a snowstorm is when the models don't pick up on it until 24-48 hrs ahead of time. Maybe late Feb. early March something may go wrong and we score . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I seriously believe the only way the mid atlantic gets a snowstorm is when the models don't pick up on it until 24-48 hrs ahead of time. Maybe late Feb. early March something may go wrong and we score . The models never suck that much. Either that or my, and presumably your, untrained eyes can't see that a set up is close to a score all along, if what you describe does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42782-radio-show-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42782-radio-show-thread/ That has to be a joke, maybe it will have the reverse affect it usually has and give us a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I've decided to hug the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That has to be a joke, maybe it will have the reverse affect it usually has and give us a big storm. Yeah, because we had a radio show before 12/19/2009, 2/5/2010, 2/7/2010 and 1/26/2011 and we missed all of those. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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