IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What's scary about the GGEM is that it could easily happen if the H5 closes off after it exits NC. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 it's one run of a model that's notorious for wild east coast solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For reference the boxing day 2010 storm was 974mb south of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What's scary about the GGEM is that it could easily happen if the H5 closes off after it exits NC. Sent from my HTC PH39100 There has to be a nice, clean phase for that to happen, and the kicker has to be close enough to keep it on a NE track but not so strong/close it causes the storm to exit more ENE and be weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Surface is warm, but with a dynamic storm like that the precipitation would most likely be snow. We'll have to see if any of the other guidance tries to close this off before it gets past our latitude. A closed low would make up for the high slipping further east than we would like should it verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Man, if the EURO comes in similarly (which if runs close to its ensembles it might) this board will be hopping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 it's one run of a model that's notorious for wild east coast solutions good grounding comment for us here fork. The only exciting part is, given the set up, it is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Imagine if this happens. Media frenzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Imagine if this happens. Media frenzy. The irony of it, given what happened (rather didn't happen) this weekend would be hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 There has to be a nice, clean phase for that to happen, and the kicker has to be close enough to keep it on a NE track but not so strong/close it causes the storm to exit more ENE and be weaker. Basically a somewhat weak and slightly faster Northern Stream will do the trick. We will have to keep an eye out for this. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 it's one run of a model that's notorious for wild east coast solutions Yea very true, this will prob change but the ggem has been pretty good this year...maybe a little warm with temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Can't take the GGEM seriously on it's own like this. And agree with Forky, it's got a habit of showing a wild run like this and backing off. I think it's way too extreme with posing everything hitting on all cylinders from the H5 closing off, the benchmark run, etc. That said, it's looking like we will be seeing a system this week now with the models reaching some agreement on a general idea. How strong and how big and the sort, well those are further specifics that need some fine-tuning and consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Imagine if this happens. Media frenzy.not this time around they will be more careful after the recent fiasco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 it's one run of a model that's notorious for wild east coast solutions I would normally agree but the ukmet and navgem both have closed off H5 lows off our coast. I suspect the euro will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I would normally agree but the ukmet and navgem both have closed off H5 lows off our coast. I suspect the euro will follow. Euro does tend to follow the uk with trends so lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I would normally agree but the ukmet and navgem both have closed off H5 lows off our coast. I suspect the euro will follow. The Euro control last night was also amping this up, though not a strong as the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 We'll have to see if any of the other guidance tries to close this off before it gets past our latitude. A closed low would make up for the high slipping further east than we would like should it verify. Yup. This is due to the isallobaric wind component factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Imagine if this happens. Media frenzy. For the non weather experts like me, how much snow would we be talking about if this/these runs verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GGEM maybe not be drunk. The Ukie and Navgem also close off H5 down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For the non weather experts like me, how much snow would we be talking about if this/these runs verified? GGEM verbatim is 18-24" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GGEM maybe not be drunk. The Ukie and Navgem also close off H5 down south. Fun times ahead. Lets see what the Euro brings. I would imagine it will be further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Fun times ahead. Lets see what the Euro brings. I would imagine it will be further east.GGEM isn't drunk, it's developmentally delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The Euro control last night was also amping this up, though not a strong as the GGEM. The 0z control was east of its 12z. The 0 line at 850 hung thru the city at 12z it was in nwnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GGEM already did this once this year already and was horribly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GGEM maybe not be drunk. The Ukie and Navgem also close off H5 down south. The NavGEM was dirty with it though, it sort of resemble the GFS with the ugly dual low centers for a time...I'm not totally convinced the Euro will bite on looking as good as the GGEM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Happy Sunday Happy Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 rain for the coast but WAY too far out to worry about that. with that setup I doubt there would be any mixing issues even with a poor antecedent air mass in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Some of the gefs members are amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You're talking about a thread the needle situation that's very marginal. The GGEM loves to cater to the weenies among us, but let's be realistic here. There's no way that's happening, and I would favor a snow to rain scenario at this time and there's probably a 50/50 chance at mostly rain with this along the coastal plain given the marginally cold airmass in place and the high retreating to the NE. Those out in NW NJ or especially parts of central and eastern PA are sitting pretty with this as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What is the Euro showing that the site is crashing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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