IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GEFS were much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 IMO, the phase happened 6 hours too early.A phase further south would have allowed this to bomb out sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A phase further south would have allowed this to bomb out sooner. And would've bought it even more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yuck a coastal hugger, really hoping it trends better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Dt all over fb warning folks not to take the euro inside runner track verbatim. Literally pleading with weenies not to jump off of any bridges yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hopefully we don't get a coastal hugger, though we are really overdue for one it seems. They've been happening so much less frequently in recent years Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Snow maps actually show 2-4, 4-6, 6-8 south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 And would've bought it even more inland. Agree. Not sure why we'd want a quicker phase than this. The later the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If the system phases down south faster we could actually get warm sectored and have a chance at some thunderstorm activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Agree. Not sure why we'd want a quicker phase than this. The later the betterThe later the weaker the low will end up. I'd rather have the big wound up low. Could be a big wind producer on the East side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 00z UKMET is in the ECM Camp in the sense that it takes it up the coast...I tend to believe the Western Solution after looking at the 00z NAVGEM which has a progressive bias because it is closer to the coast (much then the GFS) just off the coast of NJ and its in about the same position as the GGEM .. So this implies (with its progressive bias) that the system should be west of the GFS/GGEM ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Central PA has been shafted a lot recently. They deserve a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Why on earth would you want a big low that will bring significant flooding issues, give me a late phase please. We rarely experience any good wind with these things even if warm sectored so that's pointless. I'm not sure it can go too far west, there's a kicker coming east as the storm goes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 IMO, the phase happened 6 hours too early. This. If the storm is inland then it happened too early not too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Central PA has been shafted a lot recently. They deserve a big one.They just had a good one last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 00z UKMET is in the ECM Camp in the sense that it takes it up the coast... I tend to believe the Western Solution after looking at the 00z NAVGEM which has a progressive bias because it is closer to the coast (much then the GFS) just off the coast of NJ and its in about the same position as the GGEM .. So this implies (with its progressive bias) that the system should be west of the GFS/GGEM ... Also, most likely to the east of the ECM. As SnoSki14 said, the kicker will be pushing the storm east. So with that in mind, the future runs could be near 40/70, but barely to the west near the Twin Forks of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ensembles of the ECM look like the low would be off the Delmarva but close to hugging the coast line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ensembles of the ECM look like the low would be off the Delmarva but close to hugging the coast line... i thought they arent out till 330 or so? I guess you must have them on a pay site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 i thought they arent out till 330 or so? I guess you must have them on a pay site? WxBell they are out to 108 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WxBell they are out to 108 hours! Ah, i dont have that Well the OP run was over Delaware at 108 I think... so if the EPS mean is like 100 miles east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 At 120 right off of Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ensembles of the ECM look like the low would be off the Delmarva but close to hugging the coast line... No way it hugs the coast water temps are to cold, unless its inland, closest it come to the coast is 75 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No way it hugs the coast water temps are to cold it would, unless its inland closes it come to the coast is 75 miles Just relaying what it shows..Not sure why you would say no way? ECM was just inland.. Ensemble is slightly further east but it hugs the coast line ... If i could post the image I would...but since its pay site not allowed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just relaying what it shows..Not sure why you would say no way? ECM was just inland.. Ensemble is slightly further east but it hugs the coast line ... If i could post the image I would...but since its pay site not allowed! Well if 120 is Cape Cod... I guess 108 is like 50 miles offshore from Ocean City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well if 120 is Cape Cod... I guess 108 is like 50 miles offshore from Ocean City? Well if 120 is Cape Cod... I guess 108 is like 50 miles offshore from Ocean City? Yeah I would say 50 miles is a good estimate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just relaying what it shows..Not sure why you would say no way? ECM was just inland.. Ensemble is slightly further east but it hugs the coast line ... If i could post the image I would...but since its pay site not allowed! lol no I believe you, I'm just saying if its not inland I don't think it will hug the coast. - I like a track along the 10c line at the closest and north from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just relaying what it shows..Not sure why you would say no way? ECM was just inland.. Ensemble is slightly further east but it hugs the coast line ... If i could post the image I would...but since its pay site not allowed! It's def off shore but inside the BM. Takes a good track off the delmarva to the cape...deleting images now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 06Z GFS @HR 120: NE Mid Atlantic and SNE in the fringe of the precip shield. 984 mB SLP just to the east of the BM. Surface temps and 850 temps hanging between 32F - 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 06Z GFS @HR 120: NE Mid Atlantic and SNE in the fringe of the precip shield.I'll take a blend of the euro and gfs for 2000 alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Although the amplitude is weak, the MJO 5 may be giving us a little more SE Ridge than we want so the Euro hugs the coast this run. ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif GZ_PN_120_0000.gif The euro control run is east of its 12z and its 850s hang right thru the city at 108. The OP is into NWNJ . The control is usually the most amped and has been the furthest west. So good to see it cooler than its OP. The OP is ugly , but there may be some wiggle room . Typically when the trough is moving out theres some good snows on its tail. After this storm we warm for a week and that would fit some past trends . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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