A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm actually bullish on Sunday/Monday. In another day I can start a thread...after all the juju worked for many today.

I think we get some snow... models seems to want to pop something, but nothing big

 

Juju flowing for you

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I think we get some snow... models seems to want to pop something, but nothing big

 

Juju flowing for you

 

The 12Z runs tomorrow will build or break my feelings for sunday/monday.  Low expectations but a NW push on the models will not surprise me after what we've seen this year.  The CP to you looks better of course but I'll take a mood enhancing C - 1".

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm actually bullish on Sunday/Monday. In another day I can start a thread...after all the juju worked for many today.

 

Not for here.... I do much better when James or I start the thread statistically.

 

Expectations need to be in check, we have one s/w dropping down and another bending back through and down under the Lakes that will buck the flow.  I think it's going to be a very interesting and robust system but it'll be starting with no moisture, so it'll likely favor eastern areas and probably NE areas particularly in N.E.

 

NAM looks very good to me, carries the theme of others.  That'll be more than an inverted trough which is often the models way of resolving something they can't yet resolve.

[Hailstoned]

I like the idea of the big one waiting in the wings till just  a wee past the upcoming full moon.

[DavisStraight]

I'm really not surprised the 2/9 "event" dropped off the face of the earth.   Thankful we had a decent snowfall yesterday, because it may be the last of the winter.

You're not really a "glass is half full" type of guy, eh?

[yoda]

GGEM has a monster Miller A late next week... Day 8 into 9

[free_man]

You're not really a "glass is half full" type of guy, eh?

I'll retract that, but there's no good reason to be optimistic for the longer-long range.  jmo   Concerning a large snowfall, anyway.  

 

At least the BECS rumblings disappeared... for now.  lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice to see the look for Sunday continue..seems like a general 2-4 or 3-6 inch type snowfall for now. Some of the GEFS are wild..but the big storm idea seems gone

[TalcottWx]

Was hoping to hop on today and see a better trend with the overnight. No posts is not encouraging!

[SJonesWX]

Nice to see the look for Sunday continue..seems like a general 2-4 or 3-6 inch type snowfall for now very few of us. Some of the GEFS are wild..but the big storm idea seems gone

fixed it for ya. i dont think anyone north of the pike sees much, if anything at all from the sunday event.

[Chrisrotary12]

The Sunday night into Monday threat has pushed offshore with likely our only impacts coming from the inverted trough moving through leading to a general light snowfall for us.

 

However that isn't to say that the well has run dry as there appears to be a *threat* coming around Thursday of next week and possibly that Saturday as well.

[tamarack]

Not that you asked... I know Jerry and I think he's more like me, in that we would rather get a season end to end full of nickle and dimers, rather than waiting ...hell, perhaps several years in bad stretches, for that ilk of storm you are referencing.  I think, in fact, most on here would be happier with constant events to monitor.  Turn 'em over every 4 to 5 days for 5-7" a pop, all season long with a couple good to cold shots add to the winter buzz, tend to make up for the snowier years under the bell of the graph, anyway -- I think Will can attest to this?  

 

Anyway, sometimes, yes, you get a snowier than normal year off big bombs -- 1978 for example.  But by and large, stats probably argue you want shot-gun, not rifle play as far as winter events. 

 

Don't get me wrong, the big bombs are a hoot!  But maturity requires a realistic anticipation.

 

Also agreed.  That's what made 2007-08 so great for NNE, a season without anything approaching blockbuster level but with three months of Sunday and Wednesday storms almost every week. Other than a Grinch storm and a brief jan thaw, snowpack built steadily thru the winter to peak at 48", and the snow depth days that season blew away every other winter in my 40+ years of records, except for two of my nine in Ft.Kent.

[ORH_wxman]

It is interesting to see how the pattern is evolving very similar to the ensembles I posted a few days ago...however, there is a big notable difference in the PAC NW with that shortwave diving south....it kind of gets "stuck" there and only ejects little pieces of energy instead of swinging around as a more coherent shortwave.

 

This is why we are not seeing a much larger storm on the model guidance now.

 

 

Here is the ECMWF ensemble mean I posted on February 2nd:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now here is the GEFS ensmeble mean valid tonight at 00z...the same verification time as the Feb 2nd ECMWF run:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note the big difference in the shortwave placement in the PAC NW (or really a minor difference with large consequences). Note how on the GEFS is it "stuck" back to the west of the position the ECMWF ensemble mean had it. Thus, despite a lot of the large scale features such as weak NAO ridging, the placement of the PV in eastern Canada, and the new WPO ridge forming, we have a harder time getting a major storm than was shown back on Feb 2nd...we needed that PAC NW shortwave to rotate SE "cleaner" than it has. Ejecting small pieces of energy won't get it done.

 

 

 

That said, we still may see something out of this threat, but it is not going to evolve like it was originally modeled because of that PAC NW shortwave.

[CoastalWx]

It is interesting to see how the pattern is evolving very similar to the ensembles I posted a few days ago...however, there is a big notable difference in the PAC NW with that shortwave diving south....it kind of gets "stuck" there and only ejects little pieces of energy instead of swinging around as a more coherent shortwave.

 

This is why we are not seeing a much larger storm on the model guidance now.

 

 

Here is the ECMWF ensemble mean I posted on February 2nd:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now here is the GEFS ensmeble mean valid tonight at 00z...the same verification time as the Feb 2nd ECMWF run:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note the big difference in the shortwave placement in the PAC NW (or really a minor difference with large consequences). Note how on the GEFS is it "stuck" back to the west of the position the ECMWF ensemble mean had it. Thus, despite a lot of the large scale features such as weak NAO ridging, the placement of the PV in eastern Canada, and the new WPO ridge forming, we have a harder time getting a major storm than was shown back on Feb 2nd...we needed that PAC NW shortwave to rotate SE "cleaner" than it has. Ejecting small pieces of energy won't get it done.

 

 

 

That said, we still may see something out of this threat, but it is not going to evolve like it was originally modeled because of that PAC NW shortwave.

 

I noticed that piece retrograding west as well. I think part of the problem is the ridge so strong and folding over...it almost forces the s/w trough west and instead we get sh*tty pieces of energy ejecting from it.

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS says a few clouds and flurries for Sunday

[weatherMA]

GFS says a few clouds and flurries for Sunday

3-6

Clouds

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GFS cooking up a VD Miller A it would appear.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS says a few clouds and flurries for Sunday

Its toast, and has been....as soon as we started seeing that inverted trough foolishness, it was done in my mind.

[Ginx snewx]

12z GFS cooking up a VD Miller A it would appear.

huge AO drop, nice PNA pop right around VDay

[dryslot]

Perfect track, Right over 41/70

[Ginx snewx]

Perfect track, Right over 41/70

full moon goon

[ORH_wxman]

I updated the thread title to extend the discussion to Feb 15th so we can include the Vday threat in here rather than starting a new thread since this one is still only 15 pages.

 

Remember that this is a technical discussion thread so if there's posts that don't fit that description, then they are probably going to be deleted or moved.

[dryslot]

full moon goon

 

We usually see decent events around that timing

[Ginx snewx]

We usually see decent events around that timing

Very slow moving PD  type storm, most impressive look on this run

[dryslot]

Very slow moving PD  type storm, most impressive look on this run

 

Yeah it crawled thru the GOM and closed off at 988mb

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah it crawled thru the GOM and closed off at 988mb

Pretty classic noreaster.

[CoastalWx]

It's not the best thing to have a system coming out of the Plains while the low tries to get going off the coast. It does 2 things.

 

1) It tries to flood aloft with warmer air.

 

2) It also can act as a kicker. 

 

That said..there is good agreement for a storm..but I think you are going to need help for a perfect track.

[dryslot]

Pretty classic noreaster.

 

It was widespread from south to north of paste

[Ginx snewx]

It was widespread from south to north of paste

Old school look, stacked as it passes to our south and east, huge 850 inflow at climo cold time of year. Verbatim very interesting, euro was very close to this , maybe a hair closer in but the idea of a good storm seems to be in the cards for Vday.

[Damage In Tolland]

There's going to be Ptype issues with that one