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A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

I did a copy and past bc computer was havin issues. THis is from Kevin Duff in general wx thread today.

 

"Don -- I'm not sure if you have seen this from Bill Nichols in the NWS DVN discussion (

 

Quote

 

 

MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING DAYS 5 INTO DAY 10 NORMALLY SUGGEST MAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS AND PREDICTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ALONG WEST COAST WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AT/BEYOND DAY 10 FOR CENTRAL US. THE MAGNITUDE OF ENERGY CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC ARE AMONG THE HIGHEST I HAVE SEEN OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SOURCES IN 35 YEARS OF ANALYSIS. THE MEANING...THIS WILL NOT BE A MINOR CHANGE AND SHOULD RESULT IN MAJOR TEMP/MOISTURE CHANGES LASTING MANY WEEKS AND QUITE POSSIBLY MONTHS. TELECONNECTION WEIGHTING SUPPORTS MAY RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SPRING...MUCH MORE TYPICAL THAN WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR WHICH THIS AUTHOR CORRECTLY ASSESSED WOULD HAPPEN LAST WINTER. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN KEY INDICES USED IN TELECONNECTION TECHNIQUES NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THIS REGIME CHANGE. THIS WILL BE QUITE EDUCATIONAL TO MONITOR. THE REGIME WE ARE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR...FAVORABLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S AT TIMES BY LATE IN THE MONTH...QUITE A CHANGE FROM PAST 2 MONTHS. THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL SEE IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS MAY CONTINUE BASED ON ANALOGS AND STATISTICAL WEIGHTING IN TELECONNECTIONS LOCALLY USED BY THIS AUTHOR...FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MID SPRING...POSITIVE IMPACTS TO WESTERN DROUGHT...HIGH PW/S WOULD SUPPORT FLOODING RISKS THOUGH.

 

I was wondering your reactions to his long-range thoughts..."

 

My question is.....does this teleconnect to a trough in the east by mid to late month as wave lengths shorten. My guess is our key question is...."got blocking" otherwise congrats PF 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

12z Euro tracks the low for the Vday storm right over LI, SE Mass and DE Maine 984mb over DE Maine, Nice front end thump for many before it flips the SE areas over to rain then back to snow on the backside as it pulls away

Sounds like a climo favored track up here. It can only go downhill from there, lol.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I did a copy and past bc computer was havin issues. THis is from Kevin Duff in general wx thread today.

 

"Don -- I'm not sure if you have seen this from Bill Nichols in the NWS DVN discussion (

 

Quote

 

I was wondering your reactions to his long-range thoughts..."

 

My question is.....does this teleconnect to a trough in the east by mid to late month as wave lengths shorten. My guess is our key question is...."got blocking" otherwise congrats PF 

 

I am not sure the writer of that a statement should be saying " ....MONTHS TO COME..." just yet.   He may very well be proven correct, but the onset of the NP phase change has been recent and rather abrupt in the models, and it would be paramount to get some consistency here. Often times in situ patterns and their persistence are "rushed" into a pattern change by guidance', when more often the change is temporary and/or in lesser magnitude than envisioned by the runs.

 

That said ... patterns do change.  It's just that you don't typically see 180 degree mass-field reversals that adopt a new paradigm, on dime like this/that.  You get an ebb and flow in the present persistence, that eventually in time winds up totally different -- but ironically, that can take "months" to complete.   

 

As is though, wow.  The 12z GFS does underscore a REMARKABLE change in the construct of the overall circulation system of the Pacific, but mainly it is a north Pacific change.  What starts out as intense ridging is replaced by large scale L/W trough depths that nearly equal the magnitude of the positive anomaly presently there.   The down stream flow into N/A appears to want to take on a bit more southern stream influence, perhaps as a transitive response to those vast upstream changes in the Pac.  A moisture transport looks to slam the west coast (which they need desperately as California is suffering a historic moisture deficit).  But the downstream ramification of that new flow is a quasi-STJ to run up along the Gulf and lower MA  ... almost an El Nino look, actually. Huh, interesting. Anyway, this would likely be a stormy time for us and much of the conus for that matter.

 

I think pattern break down in the Pac is quite plausible, I am just not certain of its longevity, because the overall state of the ENSO and polar mass fields hasn't substantially changed, and until we redistribute the heat source/sinks around the Globe, it is quite plausible that the Pac is merely being effected by temporarily fractals and will return to the governing dynamic given time. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Oh my sweet baby Jesus.

 

Only a week to go. Lets see if it even has it next run LOL

 

 

It's going to be a nightmare in the future runs ...oh until probably Sunday.  The reason being, there is wave contention in the flow on these runs.  Both the operational GGEM/EURO/GFS ...all of them, have a potent backside S/W diving into the L/W axis as that Miller A zips up the coast.  In fact, it is entirely plausible that we get a big storm next week, and it is not even the Miller A; rather, turns out that the trailing S/W becomes dominant and damps the lead one out entirely... 

 

The handling of those two features in such close proximity in a fluid medium, out in time, is going to cause a lot of problems for operational modeling and even the ensemble means for that matter, until we can get it into the 4-d variable systems wheelhouse.  Any model that nails what happens next Wednesday from today's run is really going to be dumb lucky.

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