Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It probably won't happen...my guess is mostly sleet/rain for us It's pretty cold the night before and leading in. I suppose verbatim you could say the retreating airmass overperforms. It's almost all snow for DC. Cut it in half and still a solid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's a pretty big hit for far NW burbs...high sliding off and low to our west hurts...still shows the front end thump again...I imagine this will trend worse for DC as we get close in yup. what's the thump looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's a pretty big hit for far NW burbs...high sliding off and low to our west hurts...still shows the front end thump again...I imagine this will trend worse for DC as we get close in I suspect you're right about it trending worse but we still could see accumulating snow on the front end. This is one of those cases where I usually get screwed even more than DCA. The guys way out north and west could be super happy, for them it's a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 And there is no GL low on this run. F that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It probably won't happen...my guess is mostly sleet/rain for us Travel if it happens? We will probably get slop best case scenario. We can easily head up to HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 yup. what's the thump looking like? 6+ verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 And there is no GL low on this run. F that thing. Then what low to the west is zwyts talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Gonna buy my valentines day card at the Hagerstown outlets on the day of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Big ticket event, just likely not all snow except the favored 81 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Travel if it happens? We will probably get slop best case scenario. We can easily head up to HGR. i might drive to western leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Then what low to the west is zwyts talking about? There's a weak wave over the great lakes but no closed circ. @ 150 there's a 1002 but it's north of north dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Im not in... till wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Gonna buy my valentines day card at the Hagerstown outlets on the day of the storm Seriously do it if you can. I was off Monday so I drove just 33 miles up 270 and 70 to South Mountain and saw 4-5" of snow and moderate snow falling, while I had rain at my house. Go do some shopping at the outlets and get lunch while watching snow fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Travel if it happens? We will probably get slop best case scenario. We can easily head up to HGR. lol at talking about chasing a fantasy event 6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 There's a weak wave over the great lakes but no closed circ. @ 150 there's a 1002 but it's north of north dakota. Plus if I remember correctly the coastal low runs just west of Hatteras and with the high off the coast we'd probably have some easterly flow to mess things up for us. Traditionally, we have mixing problems with such storms. Still it's way too early to say much besides there is liable to be a storm sometime towards mid week. The GEFS members from 06Z couldn't even agree on the timing of any possible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 lol at talking about chasing a fantasy event 6 days out If you look at the GEFS member's 500 forecasts, none look as amped as the euro. It will be interesting to see how the Euro eps looks compared to it. Because it means things out, it is likely to look weaker but if it's way weaker, I'd be leery of buying such a wrapped up 500. This will also be a time to look at the control to see if the flatter look is due to resolution differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Plus if I remember correctly the coastal low runs just west of Hatteras and with the high off the coast we'd probably have some easterly flow to mess things up for us. Traditionally, we have mixing problems with such storms. Still it's way too early to say much besides there is liable to be a storm sometime towards mid week. The GEFS members from 06Z couldn't even agree on the timing of any possible storm. No doubt on the slp track. It's too far west. Mixing for sure. All we can do is hope we can maximize whatever happens while the column supports it. This of course assumes there is any precip before the hp retreats. The euro was a good run for a front end thump and it will change every 12 hours for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It is pretty interesting how the SE gets more snow than NE with a bombing low. Could be good timing for western areas of the SE as the HP is held in temporarily by a transient 50/50. I may be a weenie, but it is almost embarrassing that there are posters in NYC forum comparing it to 1996 & March 2001, like wth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Then what low to the west is zwyts talking about? at 162 hours, the pressure is like 1010mb over Toledo and 1036mb over newfoundland...it's basically the same thing as having a closed circulation discrete low over Lake Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 lol at talking about chasing a fantasy event 6 days out the reason we are tracking 144 to 300 hour threats is because it dosent snow anymore. So what else is there to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro will lose this by tonight or tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro will lose this by tonight or tomorrow I don't think it will lose the storm, I just think it will move it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't think it will lose the storm, I just think it will move it i didnt think it would lose the feb 8-10 storm either....every model had it...6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 JMA is showing a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 i didnt think it would lose the feb 8-10 storm either....every model had it...6 days out actually, Euro is giving BWI .14" qpf for Saturday so the storm isn't/wasn't lost, it just failed to develop to its max potential (that was only shown on 1 run anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 HECS Ji... I am banned over at wxrisk so I cant post on DT.. but can you post that on his page? Please.. and like do it in a completely irrelevant spot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 actually, Euro is giving BWI .14" qpf for Saturday so the storm isn't/wasn't lost, it just failed to develop to its max potential (that was only shown on 1 run anyway) Yea, it was pretty fleeting in the big picture. But it took us a while to erase the model porn from our minds as it became clear the streams weren't going to dance. Ji, is the jma any good? I never even look at it. I broker a personal rule and looked at the canadian today. Time is short. I'm just going to hug whatever. Right now the jma is the front runner so i'll go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 A couple of things here: 1. The problem is NOT the eastern PV "racing" away from us. In fact, the mess this weekend allows for the deepest low anomalies toward the 50-50 position yet. It MUST lift out in order for it to snow in the Mid Atlantic, otherwise it gets squashed. 2. The problem PV is the western PV. It drops down from the North Pole due to the N PAC block. It comes down and sits in N-C Canada the entire run basically after it drops in. This sits on the western side of the "west NAO-light" block. Some of the modeling insists that it will be assertive enough to ruin confluence on its on. Usually in a classic 50-50 low / coastal storm scenario, the confluence locks in anyway as the 50-50 low lifts because there is a ridge across W-C North America. That makes this upcoming case not quite classic SHOULD the western PV become a player. Might be worth looking into events and seeing if any had this western PV feature to the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 i didnt think it would lose the feb 8-10 storm either....every model had it...6 days out It didnt "lose" it, just realized the northern and southern stream vorts were not going to phase and turned it into two separate weak piece of crap systems. EDIT: in theory this upcoming week is less complicated. Early in the week the flow is suppressive but as the week goes on the flow backs and something will evetually come out of the gulf. It won't need a complicated phase job to pull it off either. The details are way up in the air. GFS brings it out in several waves, GGEM in two waves a HECS then a cutter, and the Euro into one bomb. Of course those details will determine how this ends for the area. On the negative side, the northern stream is not cooperating with confluence and the atlantic is only so so, this means timing will be an issue or the thermal profile won't work out On the positive side, there will be cold in place in front of whatever comes out of the gulf, and this wave will initiate well to our south. Getting those two things is half the battle. As for the euro solution, that track is inside where DC wants it, but it doesnt have to always trend into a disaster...there was a storm in January 87 with a similar inside track that should have changed over but it was racing up the coast (progressive) and the WAA thump got way out in front so DC got 10" then dry slot before the warm air could get in. Same with Feb 72, one of the analogs, where DC got 6" and IAD 10 before the WAA did its damage. Its a long shot but the give up all hope thing is silly also. But I guess if that makes you feel better, whatever floats your boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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