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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Keep calm and carry on.  We all know it won't happen as depicted.  The GFS will have about 15 different solutions between now and just before the storm.

 

Part of the problem is we treat operational models the same at 144 hours as we do at 60....our approach is not consistent with the usefulness of models at certain ranges

 

The other problem, is models tend to give DC, even within 72 hours, but especially outside that range, way way more snow than both climo and the pattern support.  The is supported not only by observation, but by the fact that when models hone in on a solution they are much more likely, by a huge margin, to "take" away our snow, rather than improve their solutions.

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Keep calm and carry on. We all know it won't happen as depicted. The GFS will have about 15 different solutions between now and just before the storm.

Yup. Granted, we will still probably get screwed either way, but this is the same GFS that gave us a long duration, all snow event at 18z yesterday for next Tuesday-Wednesday. Best to *try* and not let one OP run get us too down.

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it kicks that low out east though... 144 its just NW of New Orleans... 156 in N AL... 168 its just east of Ocean City...

 

There is a H around in NE at 1035 to 1040mb... total precip is ~30mm

 

it's a huge hit but it's the canadian. GL low is trailing and further south than the gfs. We hold temps. Looks like a foot+ for the cities. But again, it's the canadian. I don't even know why I'm looking at it. 

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it's a huge hit but it's the canadian. GL low is trailing and further south than the gfs. We hold temps. Looks like a foot+ for the cities. But again, it's the canadian. I don't even know why I'm looking at it. 

 

Yeah, its all snow... if we could just get that I think we would all be able to call it a winter

 

Right after though a sub 980 low runs through W NY :axe:

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I remember Raleighwx saying earlier this winter that none of his analogs showed a -NAO.

 

he was right. Terrible Atlantic all winter

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

Last year's neg NAO did nothing.  Nothing.  

 

This year has been a better winter, by far, than last.  Too much emphasis around here is placed on trying to get an 18" snow.

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Lock the 12z GGEM please.. 37mm (~1.5" QPF) of snow... the H in NE does just enough to keep us in a snowstorm with good enough temps

 

The most important thing is less interaction with the gl low. The gfs would be a good hit without it as well. Still would probably mix but certainly a more frozen outcome than as depicted. I think we should all accept a mixed event though if anything at all. Sure it could trend better but a retreating hp cannot be overlooked regardless of the gl low. 

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The most important thing is less interaction with the gl low. The gfs would be a good hit without it as well. Still would probably mix but certainly a more frozen outcome than as depicted. I think we should all accept a mixed event though if anything at all. Sure it could trend better but a retreating hp cannot be overlooked regardless of the gl low. 

 

True, we should all accept that we will mix and temper our expectations accordingly. 

 

FWIW, 12z UKIE at 144 has a 1033 H around Buffalo and a 1011 L in the GOM south of Mobile AL

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I think it is pretty clear we might scrape an inch here or there...If we are lucky maybe a mixy 2-4" storm....but beyond that any sizable storm is complete fantasy

 

I think we're on the same page with this one. A good hit requires a front running piece that is now absent. I don't think it's coming back either. So we rely on a coastal type system with a retreating hp and an added bonus of a possible gl glow screwing up midlevel flow. 

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This pattern is unusually unpredictable.  Fast flow off the pacific with little in the way of ridging in the west and no real western Atlantic block has always been a forecast nightmare sometime even into the day 2 range. 

 

it is almost useless and wasted breath to keep watching for things 5+ days out given the pattern.  

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It's a pretty big hit for far NW burbs...high sliding off and low to our west hurts...still shows the front end thump again...I imagine this will trend worse for DC as we get close in

 

As long as we get like as 3-5 incher in front I dont mind really.... yes, we all want it to be all snow, but we must take what we can get

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