moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Kevin, I'll cognrats you if there are several 3-4" lollis east of the Berkshires. Otherwise this is a C-1 or C-2 type deal...I personally think 2" amounts will be sparse east of the Berks, but I wouldn't totally rule it out. 3-4" seems like a no-go to me though. Shockingly, I'm anticipating less than 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro is bone dry for this event at least around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I haven't seen any met say that I've said a coating to 2" in the Litchfield hills for 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Alot of arguing over a coating of snow...big deal whether it's a coating or an inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Alot of arguing over a coating of snow...big deal whether it's a coating or an inch... It's what we do haha. It's like the does the temp hit 48F or does it hit 50F in a thaw? Or is the dew point 58F or 61F, because one is supposedly humid and the other is not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's what we do haha. It's like the does the temp hit 48F or does it hit 50F in a thaw? Or is the dew point 58F or 61F, because one is supposedly humid and the other is not?Well not really that got ugly before it was deleted. The passive aggressive stuff has to end, it's getting way out of hand and too many pages are dedicated to answering the same questions over and over. Not taking sides but geez louise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 My current thinking is 1-3" for southern Berkshires with 2-4" for the northern Berkshires. Maybe someone up on the Rensselaer plateau can get 5 or 6" out of this as they tend to do well with these setups. Of course Woodford will probably find a way to get 6"+ from this. There's always a chance this could overachieve and produce some surprises like the 1/13/12 upslope event did, but I'll play it realistically for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The banter is entertaining sometimes, but wouldn't complain if we had an analysis only thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 My current thinking is 1-3" for southern Berkshires with 2-4" for the northern Berkshires. Maybe someone up on the Rensselaer plateau can get 5 or 6" out of this as they tend to do well with these setups. Of course Woodford will probably find a way to get 6"+ from this. There's always a chance this could overachieve and produce some surprises like the 1/13/12 upslope event did, but I'll play it realistically for now. That sounds like good forecast...I think most spots in the Greens and Berks find 2-3" of air, with localized 3-6" spots, especially SVT. Models really like that area with some lake connections too later in the event. I'm thinking 1-3" up here, then probably another 1-3" Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teleskier_vt Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The banter is entertaining sometimes, but wouldn't complain if we had an analysis only thread. I'm gonna go negative for a stint....I would argue that the New England forum is 99% banter and 1% analysis. Most posts are model hugging and frat basement banter. Other regions have some solid analysis and analyzers, but the New England thread has lost that this year. Not sure why, and with the exception of a few posters, (TT, Benchmark, a few others), most posts have little to no analysis. I would love to have a more dedicated analysis thread in the New England sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 My current thinking is 1-3" for southern Berkshires with 2-4" for the northern Berkshires. Maybe someone up on the Rensselaer plateau can get 5 or 6" out of this as they tend to do well with these setups. Of course Woodford will probably find a way to get 6"+ from this. There's always a chance this could overachieve and produce some surprises like the 1/13/12 upslope event did, but I'll play it realistically for now. Models hit the Berks decently... 2-4 sounds good for that I'm sticking with an amazing C-1" for ORH county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 BOX likes Saturday more than I would think: SATURDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE W AS IT/S ATTENDANT LOWPRES SLIDES INTO QUEBEC. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND ROBUST 2KFTSLY LLJ AROUND 50 KT WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR -SHSN THROUGH THEDAY FROM W TO E. THEREFORE...DESPITE THE COLD/DRY SOUNDINGS TOSTART...CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR SHSN ACROSS THEREGION...INCREASING IN NUMBER THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL MOISTURE INTHE COLUMN IS LOW...BUT AM NOTING POCKETS OF DECENT OMEGA WITHINTHE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AND WITH TEMPS STARTING IN THE TEENS AND20S...RATIOS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD 10 TO 1.THEREFORE...WHILE THE BULK OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THESESHOWERS SHOULD BE ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR TWO...NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THEQUESTION TOTALS APPROACH ADVISORY LVLS. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCEWILL BE IN THE W...WHERE UPSLOPE/DYNAMICS ARE COINCIDENT AND TEMPSWILL BE COLDER SUPPORTING HIGHER RATIOS. SOME OF THESE SHSN COULDCOME IN THE FORM OF SQUALLS AS SOME OF THE HIGH MOMENTUM ALOFT ISMIXED TO THE SFC...LEADING TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND QUICKACCUMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 What upslope areas is box talking about. Who is upslope in SSW flow? Rev lol? Union ? ORH airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think areas outside of the mountains will see a coating to an inch and maybe more the further east one goes, and here's why: models are coming in further south with the digging of polar vortex energy in which the trough goes negatively tilted over NC and VA instead of further northwest in let's say NY or PA. The NAM digs this energy to southern VA and northern NC, this would pull any low pressure development further southeast into areas nearer 40n: 68w or 42n: 70w. Right now 2 degrees of lat and 2 degrees of long could have major ramifications into how much snow falls, and of course the NAM is cold enough for snow even to the coast as its main energy vort max is much further south of the GFS. SO let's see what the 18z GFS shows and then the 00z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Winds are going to be fierce come Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 lol the last page was pretty entertaining. Agree. Was in a down mood, but that last page picked me right back up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well not really that got ugly before it was deleted. The passive aggressive stuff has to end, it's getting way out of hand and too many pages are dedicated to answering the same questions over and over. Not taking sides but geez louise. Lighten up, Francis. My current thinking is 1-3" for southern Berkshires with 2-4" for the northern Berkshires. Maybe someone up on the Rensselaer plateau can get 5 or 6" out of this as they tend to do well with these setups. Of course Woodford will probably find a way to get 6"+ from this. There's always a chance this could overachieve and produce some surprises like the 1/13/12 upslope event did, but I'll play it realistically for now. What upslope areas is box talking about. Who is upslope in SSW flow? Rev lol? Union ? ORH airport Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Lighten up, Francis. You didn't see what was deleted, obviously. Maybe in addition to the banter threads, obs threads and storm threads we can have ask a met ten times threads. And people wonder why the analysis is slowly dwindling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 People can ignore him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Wow a whole bunch of posts about whether Will or Scott said a c-1" of snow, seriously? Come on man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Wow a whole bunch of posts about whether Will or Scott said a c-1" of snow, seriously? Come on man.We were having a discussion and someone got very nasty with verbal abuse. It was awful. What's done is done.Hopefully this event pans out for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 We were having a discussion and someone got very nasty with verbal abuse. It was awful. What's done is done. Hopefully this event pans out for everyone It looks more promising than it did, the 18z has two nice pulses here with the tail being potentially interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 People can ignore him. Using the ignore feature isn't the solution, restraint in repeated responses is, to the benefit of all. I just can't believe Will and Scott forecast 7 inches from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 It looks more promising than it did, the 18z has two nice pulses here with the tail being potentially interesting. Yeah there's def still some question marks..but overall trends seem to be good. I don't think the main show is till afternoon/evening though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Lollies to 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Lollies to 8" Best free sites to see fronto, vv, omega etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 You didn't see what was deleted, obviously. Maybe in addition to the banter threads, obs threads and storm threads we can have ask a met ten times threads. And people wonder why the analysis is slowly dwindling. Though I didn't see what was deleted, I was making a joke. 9.0/-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well just say a coating to 8" for a range, solved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Lollies to 8" LOL. I'm not sure what would be the best thing for me to focus on with regard to amounts. Clearly it's not QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Using the ignore feature isn't the solution, restraint in repeated responses is, to the benefit of all. I just can't believe Will and Scott forecast 7 inches from this event. As I said...ignore him. Not the buttonThey forecast 7 inches if you add their mentions of an inch together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.