ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 you ftw!? Snow showers likely, mainly between 11am and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Wind chill values as low as -3. South wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday NightA chance of snow showers, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Widespread 1-2 for now.. 3-4 not out of question with squalls..which show up very nicely as modeled now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 <p> you ftw!? Snow showers likely, mainly between 11am and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Wind chill values as low as -3. South wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Night A chance of snow showers, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. No P&C FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 NAM and GFS both show 50 knots at top of mixed layer on Saturday. Pretty unusual to have gusty southwesterly winds and snow in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 NAM and GFS both show 50 knots at top of mixed layer on Saturday. Pretty unusual to have gusty southwesterly winds and snow in the air. The Euro had today what looked like convective cellular spots, the kind you see offshore with big cold frontal passages blowing out over the ocean. OES would not surprise me in coastal CT before winds veer totally SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 18z GFS looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Saturday looks like a classic FROPA snow squall day with post frontal upslope snows continuing for a while afterwards for the Berkshires, Taconics and Greens. An advisory level event is a decent possibility for the western slopes, especially if we can cash in on additional lake effect streamers Saturday night after the main event passes. A potent vortmax with instability, some moisture, and a FROPA is a good recipe for some surprises in the orographically favored areas in WNE. The meso models have been hinting at a 3-6" snowfall for this area on up into SW VT, so this may be our once a winter event where we can get in on it like Mt. Mansfield does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Saturday looks like a classic FROPA snow squall day with post frontal upslope snows continuing for a while afterwards for the Berkshires, Taconics and Greens. An advisory level event is a decent possibility for the western slopes, especially if we can cash in on additional lake effect streamers Saturday night after the main event passes. A potent vortmax with instability, some moisture, and a FROPA is a good recipe for some surprises in the orographically favored areas in WNE. The meso models have been hinting at a 3-6" snowfall for this area on up into SW VT, so this may be our once a winter event where we can get in on it like Mt. Mansfield does. Nice, Berkshire East should do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Nice, Berkshire East should do well Yes, they should get on it a bit, but I think places like Jiminy Peak will really clean up with this type of setup. Warning level for them? Not out of the question, as I've seen it with these types of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yes, they should get on it a bit, but I think places like Jiminy Peak will really clean up with this type of setup. Warning level for them? Not out of the question, as I've seen it with these types of setups. wax um up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Cape looks like they could gust to 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 GFS favors snow over rain for us on Saturday evening. Although has rain for us on Monday. I don't know I remain skeptical whether or not we actually turn to rain, we might have enough of a lifting mechanism to cancel out the warm air surface layer. Things can still change within the guidance, but right now I would favor at least snow showers over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Saturday looks like a classic FROPA snow squall day with post frontal upslope snows continuing for a while afterwards for the Berkshires, Taconics and Greens. An advisory level event is a decent possibility for the western slopes, especially if we can cash in on additional lake effect streamers Saturday night after the main event passes. A potent vortmax with instability, some moisture, and a FROPA is a good recipe for some surprises in the orographically favored areas in WNE. The meso models have been hinting at a 3-6" snowfall for this area on up into SW VT, so this may be our once a winter event where we can get in on it like Mt. Mansfield does. You're area looks almost better than here as you get a lake feed late in the game and as that front comes across the lakes, it'll entrain some extra moisture which should wring out nicely on the west side of the Berks. Vort max going right overhead with upslope flow can really enhance the event with some almost convective heavy upslope snow showers. I think 3-6" is a good starting point for the west side of the southern Greens and Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Nice lapse rates, this could be a fun Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Saturday looks like a classic FROPA snow squall day with post frontal upslope snows continuing for a while afterwards for the Berkshires, Taconics and Greens. An advisory level event is a decent possibility for the western slopes, especially if we can cash in on additional lake effect streamers Saturday night after the main event passes. A potent vortmax with instability, some moisture, and a FROPA is a good recipe for some surprises in the orographically favored areas in WNE. The meso models have been hinting at a 3-6" snowfall for this area on up into SW VT, so this may be our once a winter event where we can get in on it like Mt. Mansfield does. I'll be up in Monterey for the weekend... can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Tim Kelley seems quite optimistic up here, based on what he wrote for Jay Peak... I'm not exactly sure I'd agree with this at this stage, haha. "Waves of low pressure along arctic fronts can pull off big surprises. But we will be conservative. Snow is here most of the day Saturday, ending before sunrise Sunday, a very low density 8 inches seems reasonable. The weather dynamic generating our Saturday daytime snow is called warm air advection. Yes, we will warm all the way to 15 above zero! But the 'advection' part is wind. Gusts past 40 mph from the southwest are here Saturday afternoon. The snow Saturday night is from cold air advection. The temperature is heading south of zero again Sunday, but the 'advection' part should not be quite as strong, it 'should be' less windy on Sunday. The best powder skiing is likely later Saturday, and early Sunday. The more comfortable, groomer type skiing, should be early Saturday and later Sunday. I say later Sunday because the wind should let up a bit during the afternoon. The system racing in Sunday Night and Monday will generate another 8"+ of even lower density powder, along with a new low reading on the thermometer by Tuesday morning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Nice lapse rates, this could be a fun Saturday ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Another 94 analog is the Thursday fropa that dropped an inch in 20 minutes. Highs around 34 which in January 1994 was tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 NAM has thunderstorms erupting off of Cape Cod, MA Saturday evening. Right now I would favor a quick burst of snow Friday evening over the Cape followed by rain showers changing over to a burst of snow in evening. Gusts 45-55mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Tim Kelley seems quite optimistic up here, based on what he wrote for Jay Peak... I'm not exactly sure I'd agree with this at this stage, haha. "Waves of low pressure along arctic fronts can pull off big surprises. But we will be conservative. Snow is here most of the day Saturday, ending before sunrise Sunday, a very low density 8 inches seems reasonable. The weather dynamic generating our Saturday daytime snow is called warm air advection. Yes, we will warm all the way to 15 above zero! But the 'advection' part is wind. Gusts past 40 mph from the southwest are here Saturday afternoon. The snow Saturday night is from cold air advection. The temperature is heading south of zero again Sunday, but the 'advection' part should not be quite as strong, it 'should be' less windy on Sunday. The best powder skiing is likely later Saturday, and early Sunday. The more comfortable, groomer type skiing, should be early Saturday and later Sunday. I say later Sunday because the wind should let up a bit during the afternoon. The system racing in Sunday Night and Monday will generate another 8"+ of even lower density powder, along with a new low reading on the thermometer by Tuesday morning." AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 AWT. Nope, January has been punted. Futility record in sight. Philly on VT's tail for season win. Gahhhh!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Nope, January has been punted. Futility record in sight. Philly on VT's tail for season win. Gahhhh!!!!All the hoopla BTV is only 5.6 under YTD per their daily climate report and 4 under last year, they want it all and they want it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'll take it in a heartbeat. Saturday: Cloudy. Snow showers likely...mainly in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Not as cold with highs in the mid 20s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 No big changes. 1-2 inches widespread with spot 3-4 amounts for those that get the heavy squall tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Nope, January has been punted. Futility record in sight. Philly on VT's tail for season win. Gahhhh!!!! Oh January punted itself on the 6th. And Ginxy was trying to figure out if normal January snowfall was 40", 60" or 75"....unfortunately it won't be anywhere close to any of those values, lol. 21" on the snowboard so far at 3,000ft. Lowest since 2000 was 39" (actually achieved last year and we thought that was a dry month). Maybe we can weasel up to 30" on the month, to save the punt from being returned for a TD...and stop them at our own 20 yard line. Give the defense a chance to stop 'em in Feb and March, or at least keep Philly to a field goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 AWT. lol you guys blast TK for being optimistic in SNE and then he posts that for up here and its AWT. There's no way 16" (on the conservative side) falls by Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 lol you guys blast TK for being optimistic in SNE and then he posts that for up here and its AWT. There's no way 16" (on the conservative side) falls by Tuesday morning. I don't see why a foot can't fall at the stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't see why a foot can't fall at the stake. 12-20 at the stake and 8-12 at the condo..yet still we'll hear complaints and Jan is punted. 100 inches or punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Congrats west slope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't see why a foot can't fall at the stake. I'm hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Congrats west slope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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