powderfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12-20 at the stake and 8-12 at the condo..yet still we'll hear complaints and Jan is punted. 100 inches or punt See there's something called percentage of average that allows different climo areas to be compared. Lets play a game... what is your average January snowfall? Say you are at about 30% of climo, and could possibly climb to 50% if it breaks right here in the last week. Best case scenario seems to be about "50% of climo snow, it rained on 4 occasions, no warning level snows and one advisory level event". So regardless of actual amounts, how would you grade a January that sounded like that for your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 See there's something called percentage of average that allows different climo areas to be compared. Lets play a game... what is your average January snowfall? Say you are at about 30% of climo, and could possibly climb to 50% if it breaks right here in the last week. Best case scenario seems to be about 50% of climo snow, it rained on 4 occasions, no warning level snows and one advisory level event. So regardless of actual amounts, how would you grade a January that sounded like that for your location? Yeah, you can b**ch about your seasonal averages. NNE has been in a rut with the "PV of Death" overhead. I need 10" and I'm done for the season, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 See there's something called percentage of average that allows different climo areas to be compared. Lets play a game... what is your average January snowfall? Say you are at about 30% of climo, and could possibly climb to 50% if it breaks right here in the last week. Best case scenario seems to be about "50% of climo snow, it rained on 4 occasions, no warning level snows and one advisory level event". So regardless of actual amounts, how would you grade a January that sounded like that for your location? It's all good - I get what you're saying. Just teasing a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's all good - I get what you're saying. Just teasing a bit lol I know...just like applying it to other areas and see how people might approach those same stats. Obviously if it snowed 12-20" in a big warming storm, we wouldn't be having this discussion. JSpin just did a summary in the NNE thread, too that objectively looks at his area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yeah, you can b**ch about your seasonal averages. NNE has been in a rut with the "PV of Death" overhead. I need 10" and I'm done for the season, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 What PV overhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 What PV overhead? The one that's been gyrating over Hudson Bay for like the last 3 weeks. You know, the one that's taking over all the newscasts across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The one that's been gyrating over Hudson Bay for like the last 3 weeks. You know, the one that's taking over all the newscasts across the country.oh...so you were being tongue in cheek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 oh...so you were being tongue in cheek. It feels like its overhead. I'm in the summit lodge and that -50 wind chill is the real deal. You sort of groan when the gusts hit, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It feels like its overhead. I'm in the summit lodge and that -50 wind chill is the real deal. You sort of groan when the gusts hit, lol.classic old school winter cold. We've been softened by warm winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 No big changes. 1-2 inches widespread with spot 3-4 amounts for those that get the heavy squall tomorrow night I don't see that at all. Some areas will get some -SN tomorrow morning, but the soundings have a mega subsidence area region wide through the aftn. I could see some squalls with the actual front tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't see that at all. Some areas will get some -SN tomorrow morning, but the soundings have a mega subsidence area region wide through the aftn. I could see some squalls with the actual front tomorrow evening. Loop the NAM HI RES reflectivity, shows the OES very well, I think the atmosphere is moistened pretty well because of the south flow, could be an interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't see that at all. Some areas will get some -SN tomorrow morning, but the soundings have a mega subsidence area region wide through the aftn. I could see some squalls with the actual front tomorrow evening.Models slowed up a bit. Looks like steady snows early - late afternoon and then heavy squalls early night. All guidance gives everyone at least an inch. Some will get more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Models slowed up a bit. Looks like steady snows early - late afternoon and then heavy squalls early night. All guidance gives everyone at least an inch. Some will get more Perhaps some surprises too, mesos are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Models slowed up a bit. Looks like steady snows early - late afternoon and then heavy squalls early night. All guidance gives everyone at least an inch. Some will get more Well I would tone down your amounts overall. Someone always gets lucky...just don't buy the amounts your throwing out....but that is usually par for the course. I do see sneaky light snows for some of the area like Ginx said early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Loop the NAM HI RES reflectivity, shows the OES very well, I think the atmosphere is moistened pretty well because of the south flow, could be an interesting day. Pre-frontal yes, I could see an area of ocean enhanced precip over eastern areas. Question is how much is frozen and how much is liquid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Perhaps some surprises too, mesos are interesting.Yeah this isn't just a hit or miss snow shower deal like he's saying. It's a fairly long period of light snow with a hvy squall with the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 There are definitely some interesting aspects of this..I don't disagree. Just not sure of the widespread confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Pre-frontal yes, I could see an area of ocean enhanced precip over eastern areas. Question is how much is frozen and how much is liquid? I think most W of the Canal will see snow. Not much, maybe upwards of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yeah this isn't just a hit or miss snow shower deal like he's saying. It's a fairly long period of light snow with a hvy squall with the cold front. Nobody said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 There are definitely some interesting aspects of this..I don't disagree. Just not sure of the widespread confidence. Certainly not 2-4". Maybe W MA in the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 1-2" and if you see more, Its a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Pre-frontal yes, I could see an area of ocean enhanced precip over eastern areas. Question is how much is frozen and how much is liquid? Cape rain yea probably. I do like seeing this, windexy Total Totals Index: 44.23 C Risk: Scattered moderate thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 1-2" and if you see more, Its a bonus exactly my expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Someone will see an inch tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 exactly my expectations You have to look at these things realistically, Yeah, There is a chance for someone to jack 3-4", But that would seem to favor the higher elevations or Eastern Maine right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Someone will see an inch tomorrow morning. Who? The wife........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 omg, an inch of snow in late january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 omg, an inch of snow in late januaryWhen was the last time you went below zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Who? The wife........lol Forky..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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