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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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DT's forecast looks similar to most out there. Of course I like it but weak warm enso doesn't correlate well in our area to big snow and/or cold. The SCE/SAI is very promising so far this month but there are notable outliers in both having a -ao being negated or not having the expected ao response.

My biggest concern (I've become a broken record) is that we don't get the +pna pattern on the means. Especially early.

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DT's forecast looks similar to most out there. Of course I like it but weak warm enso doesn't correlate well in our area to big snow and/or cold. The SCE/SAI is very promising so far this month but there are notable outliers in both having a -ao being negated or not having the expected ao response.

My biggest concern (I've become a broken record) is that we don't get the +pna pattern on the means. Especially early.

 

Bob,

 Imo based on my own analyses of available data done over the last couple of days: If we get to near the 14 msk area for total (not just sub 60N) Eurasian net SCE increase for the entire month and especially if we actually get El Nino, we'll be looking golden for the chance at a solidly sub -1 AO for DJF (averaged). There are no notable outliers that were major fails in this grouping. These last 12 days of the month are still crucial despite the fantastic first 19 days.

 In addition, I think a +PDO (per Univ. of Washington) averaged over DJF is now looking extremely likely since 17 of 17 times when the Sept. PDO was +0.70+ DJF averaged a +PDO.

 So, regarding cold, weak Nino + solid -AO + +PDO would make it very difficult to not have a solidly cold winter in much of the E/SE US. Now, granted, I'm not talking specifically about snowfall here though I'd think that having a strong -AO and solid +PDO would, by themselves, be favorable, especially if a cold winter.

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Signs still pointing to a big midwinter SSW/-AO event..question is how the Pacific/tropical forcings will behave during this interval. The BDC is cranking and we're already seeing early Wave-1 activity in the stratosphere under a favorable EPF.

December looks "meh" until late month with the big SSW occurring around New Years +/- 10 days. I'd argue mid-late January may be our window this year if history has anything to say about it.

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Signs still pointing to a big midwinter SSW/-AO event..question is how the Pacific/tropical forcings will behave during this interval. The BDC is cranking and we're already seeing early Wave-1 activity in the stratosphere under a favorable EPF.

December looks "meh" until late month with the big SSW occurring around New Years +/- 10 days. I'd argue mid-late January may be our window this year if history has anything to say about it.

 

 

 

Just curious, what makes you think the SSW will happen around that time frame, rendering a "meh" December?

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So? Seems as though he put a lot of effort into something he's providing for free

 

That means a lot of people aren't going to be able to view it as it requires a powerpoint viewer to view the file and a lot of people don't know how to acquire one. You can see all the complaints on his FB page. 

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That means a lot of people aren't going to be able to view it as it requires a powerpoint viewer to view the file and a lot of people don't know how to acquire one. You can see all the complaints on his FB page.

Lol. That's kinda funny. Office app for android has a PowerPoint viewer if anyone needs one. Idk about iPhone.

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That means a lot of people aren't going to be able to view it as it requires a powerpoint viewer to view the file and a lot of people don't know how to acquire one. You can see all the complaints on his FB page. 

Anyone so inept that they cant figure out how to view a Powerpoint probably does not have the capacity to comprehend the content either.

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Anyone so inept that they cant figure out how to view a Powerpoint probably does not have the capacity to comprehend the content either.

Lol-that's some funny S. I guess I'm old. I've been viewing and making PP slides for decades. Never even considered the possibility of it being a barrier to knowledge

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Don't have office here, working on my 4th free powerpoint viewer. Been dodging unwanted garbage programs and toolbars right and left and one virus. Yeah I finally got one, hope this was worth the hour :lol:

 

Anybody with the same issue this one actually works

 

http://www.softpedia.com/get/Office-tools/Other-Office-Tools/PowerPoint-Viewer.shtml

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Don't have office here, working on my 4th free powerpoint viewer. Been dodging unwanted garbage programs and toolbars right and left and one virus. Yeah I finally got one, hope this was worth the hour :lol:

 

Anybody with the same issue this one actually works

 

http://www.softpedia.com/get/Office-tools/Other-Office-Tools/PowerPoint-Viewer.shtml

https://www.openoffice.org/

The "Impress" portion of OpenOffice is for PowerPoint.

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Cross-posting from New England... but for MA it's a BIT more promising (leans cooler/wetter):

 

"October JAMSTEC run in:

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

 

Sfc temps a little dissapointing (a touch cooler, nationally, than the Sept run, but not in the Northeast... not awful, but a BIT warmer than normal DJF).  Of course, several caveats to that.  Precip on the edge of aboves, so at SLIGHTLY above normal temps, could still get above normal snowfall with above normal precip.  Also, model sfc temps tend to be pretty sketchy (unfortunately, no upper level plots for the JAMSTEC).  Plus, most models are on the warm side for Dec; we don't see that temporal resolution on the JAMSTEC, but if it's got the same idea, Jan-Feb are probably near normal.  So, not terrible, but not great.  Most models - even those that still aren't particularly great - improved from their Sept to Oct runs.  The JAMSTEC just held serve."

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Cross-posting from New England... but for MA it's a BIT more promising (leans cooler/wetter):

 

"October JAMSTEC run in:

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

 

Sfc temps a little dissapointing (a touch cooler, nationally, than the Sept run, but not in the Northeast... not awful, but a BIT warmer than normal DJF).  Of course, several caveats to that.  Precip on the edge of aboves, so at SLIGHTLY above normal temps, could still get above normal snowfall with above normal precip.  Also, model sfc temps tend to be pretty sketchy (unfortunately, no upper level plots for the JAMSTEC).  Plus, most models are on the warm side for Dec; we don't see that temporal resolution on the JAMSTEC, but if it's got the same idea, Jan-Feb are probably near normal.  So, not terrible, but not great.  Most models - even those that still aren't particularly great - improved from their Sept to Oct runs.  The JAMSTEC just held serve."

 

 

The Mid-Atlantic looks normal to cooler, with just slightly AN precipitation. I'll take it.

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I am still evaluating things, but warm and snowless is a pretty unlikely outlook.

Agree. Taking bits and pieces from various years definitely points towards DC not having a tough time getting 10-15". I don't doubt the possibility of getting climo+ region wide but it wouldn't be playing the odds to make that call. IMO- we either need to put something on the board in Dec or be quickly moving into a more favorable pattern through the month to get there. Relying on the short lat jan/mid feb window to make up for lost time is tough for snow totals even if we are in a decent pattern. Maybe we're a March snow town again...lol

Yesterday's euro weeklies showed some notable changes. The aleutian ridge signal remains strong through the first 10 days of Nov but things out west start to shuffle a bit mid month with lower heights working their way down the west coast and a subtle signal for ridging above in the GOA and pac NW. This would imply a possible southern storm track starting to set up. Long ways out but we'll see how it goes. Last night's euro ens run showed a similar look but starting earlier. Ens mean precip panels are showing a good dose of qpf in the central sierras and d10-15 shows precip moving southward all the way to San Diego so it has a similar look to the weeklies just starting earlier.

This could be an early clue that a southern storm track underneath ridging to the N may set up in Nov. It's pretty common in Nino's. Would be nice to see IMO.

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