aldie 22 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I haven't had a 3" storm between 1/1 and 1/15 since 2003..what a crappy 2 weeks that is.. Seems like that's when the winter thaw likes to come...it does stink...holiday cheer is over...everybody is trying to lose weight and is grumpy...it's hot...miserable! It's time to snow during that time now dang it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I haven't had a 3" storm between 1/1 and 1/15 since 2003..what a crappy 2 weeks that is.. That has been a generally crappy period in recent years for some reason. Although my second biggest snow of last winter (6.9") occurred on 1/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 That has been a generally crappy period in recent years for some reason. Although my second biggest snow of last winter (6.9") occurred on 1/2. Was your biggest 3/17? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Was your biggest 3/17? Yup it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 I'm hoping we get some sort of acceptable event in Dec. It's much more fun tracking a threat than a long range pattern change. Dec can be frustrating in that dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 NH snow cover over the last 10 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 NH snow cover over the last 10 days: snow1.gif snow2.gif BOOM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753#link1 "The I-95 corridor and eastward could fall victim to changeover systems, which will provide a messy wintry mix at times." Some groundbreaking stuff here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753#link1 "The I-95 corridor and eastward could fall victim to changeover systems, which will provide a messy wintry mix at times." Some groundbreaking stuff here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Nino is refusing to materialize...maybe it will happen in the next couple weeks, but my confidence level that we get full blown official nino is pretty low...I would plan on something positive neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 This is a really important post. Appreciate it. I don't think many people realize that the GOA was cold this time last year. It really didn't start to look anomalous until late December. I totally agree about the region being more of a byproduct of the pattern vs a driver. I suppose once things are ripe it could potentially feedback into persistence but I'll defer there. Watching the npac sst config evolve is a pretty good tool for finding clues about persistence. Right now the npac in general has been under assault with storms and BN temps. Running the loop for the last 6 weeks is very telling. The region in general will almost certainly continue to cool for at least another week and then it looks like the GOA will continue beyond that. All of this is fine in my book. At the very least, the clues I'm seeing right now support the possibility of a +pdo during the start of winter. Mixed signals on the ensembles down the line irt the aleutian low showing as strong signal on the monthly mean. Even if it does because we are off to such a strong start, if it starts getting erased because of stubborn ridging in the same area later this month it would be a net negative in the grand scheme. Hard to get worked up about anything imo right now considering it's only October. There is nothing hostile staring at any of us in the East. Hopefully it stays that way. Hey just saw this. It can help feedback on the pattern, but it doesn't drive the pattern IMO. It's more heating from conduction vs latent heat given off with something like tropical convection in the WPAC. I mean in the presence of little forcing..it probably would help try to keep the pattern in place, but it ain't gonna stop something like a GOAK trough from setting up. Vice-versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Nino is refusing to materialize...maybe it will happen in the next couple weeks, but my confidence level that we get full blown official nino is pretty low...I would plan on something positive neutral. I think the atmosphere is responding a bit though. If you look at the some of the metrics along with things like the sh*tty atlantic TC season and good EPAC...it's there. The trades have been stubborn though. Even now, the WWB near the dateline looks progged to weaken a bit. We do have persistent warm waters beneath the surface. It's slowly coming on I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 I think the atmosphere is responding a bit though. If you look at the some of the metrics along with things like the sh*tty atlantic TC season and good EPAC...it's there. The trades have been stubborn though. Even now, the WWB near the dateline looks progged to weaken a bit. We do have persistent warm waters beneath the surface. It's slowly coming on I think. Thanks. Maybe you're right. The meteorology definitely trumps statistical analysis, but that said, at this point, if nino were to develop it would be an outlier in terms of lateness....even the late developers were more robust at this point than this year...If we haven't made any progress by early November, I'm sticking the fork in it....not sure it matters a whole lot for DC though, and not sure it will alter my forecast a whole lot, whether we are official or not.....the last 2 weak events weren't particularly nino-ish anyway...especially 04-05.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Thanks. Maybe you're right. The meteorology definitely trumps statistical analysis, but that said, at this point, if nino were to develop it would be an outlier in terms of lateness....even the late developers were more robust at this point than this year...If we haven't made any progress by early November, I'm sticking the fork in it....not sure it matters a whole lot for DC though, and not sure it will alter my forecast a whole lot, whether we are official or not.....the last 2 weak events weren't particularly nino-ish anyway...especially 04-05.... Well don't get me wrong...it's certainly not behaving compared to what we would expect, I agree. I guess what I more or less mean is that while the SST numbers aren't telling..it seems like the atmosphere is slowly trying to get there, but I agree we need some more help. IMHO, the forcing really has been more east based. Region 3.4 has been struggling, but should tick up a tiny bit. It's true that we are getting late in the season for any effect, but if you can get the trades to adjust and the warmer waters towards the dateline and beyond..then you also increase the chance for MJO convection to move east and force a downstream response. Pretty sure moderate strength is out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Well don't get me wrong...it's certainly not behaving compared to what we would expect, I agree. I guess what I more or less mean is that while the SST numbers aren't telling..it seems like the atmosphere is slowly trying to get there, but I agree we need some more help. IMHO, the forcing really has been more east based. Region 3.4 has been struggling, but should tick up a tiny bit. It's true that we are getting late in the season for any effect, but if you can get the trades to adjust and the warmer waters towards the dateline and beyond..then you also increase the chance for MJO convection to move east and force a downstream response. Pretty sure moderate strength is out of the question. yes, I am more interested in the pattern than some number in a certain region..I think things are already developing nicer than 2004/2006 which really imo had no real nino imprint in the pattern..even Feb 2007 was a product of blocking...we got lucky since there was a vortex NW of Alaska...the NPAC looked nothing like a nino.....I don't see a similar pattern materializing this winter...we should have more persistent blocking and I expect a negative height anomaly somewhere near the sweet spot in the N PAC.... I will say that in terms of snow here, without a moderate nino, we are unlikely to see the kind of snow amounts we saw last winter when we overperformed a pattern that could easily have yielded climo snow....our wheelhouse for big snow is generally mod ninos or centered on neg neutral...the landscape between neutral and mod nino is typically capped at around 125-150% of median ...which still isn't too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 IF today's 12Z GFS was correct, this would be the snow cover the morning of 11/1/14 (technically, 8PM 10/31/14) Now, we know it won't be perfect, but it gives you a decent idea of what things might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Not bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 I've been sitting here looking at these maps and noticed something different about them than just about every other NINO going back to 1985. Namely, the large area of above normal SST in the PAC across and just north of Hawaii. None of the other ones of recent years had that feature. I went back and the best I could find was the monthly mean for 10/86, the bottom map. Idk if it will make a big difference, but since it is such a large area of above normal temps, probably more than the equatorial PAC, I would think it will make this year different. I just don't know how, of course. My hope is that it will give us the forcing that may be lacking in the equatorial PAC. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 It looks like a localized sea surface thermal response due to amplification of the brewer-dobson circulation caused by poleward displacement of the hadley cell. Probably bad news for areas south of 40N in regards to sensible winter weather across the board. However, all we need is one big event to reach average snowfall. The above average snowcover on the Siberian side is a wildcard and could become a pro or con. Too early to tell. My big concern is 2006-2007 esque flooding of the conus with pacific airmasses while the cold stays locked up elsewhere in a 2013 fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 It looks like a localized sea surface thermal response due to amplification of the brewer-dobson circulation caused by poleward displacement of the hadley cell. Probably bad news for areas south of 40N in regards to sensible winter weather across the board. However, all we need is one big event to reach average snowfall. The above average snowcover on the Siberian side is a wildcard and could become a pro or con. Too early to tell. My big concern is 2006-2007 esque flooding of the conus with pacific airmasses while the cold stays locked up elsewhere in a 2013 fashion. yeah, but no other NINOs I could find in mid/late OCT had that feature except for 10/86, which was close personally, it seems to have to make some difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 yeah, but no other NINOs I could find in mid/late OCT had that feature except for 10/86, which was close personally, it seems to have to make some difference Uncharted territory so this should be an interesting winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Nino is refusing to materialize...maybe it will happen in the next couple weeks, but my confidence level that we get full blown official nino is pretty low...I would plan on something positive neutral. Well, based on TAO fwiw, 3.4 has warmed from ~+0.4 last week to ~+0.6 this week thanks to the WWB. So, let's see if this Monday's weekly is warmed to near +0.6. Backing this to an extent, the Cowan satellite based graph is also near +0.6 and at levels not seen since the June spike. Also, the SOI's have recently been back to being pretty solidly negative and look to be mainly negative through 10/24 per the Euro. Oct. will end up as the 5th month in a row with a -SOI. Climo of SOI's back to late 1800's says that's a pretty sig. indicator for a current or soon to be Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 yeah, but no other NINOs I could find in mid/late OCT had that feature except for 10/86, which was close personally, it seems to have to make some difference 1963/1965 kind of had it...1968 is probably the best match for that particular feature... You can play around with these maps..they are pretty cool http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Well, based on TAO fwiw, 3.4 has warmed from ~+0.4 last week to ~+0.6 this week thanks to the WWB. So, let's see if this Monday's weekly is warmed to near +0.6. Backing this to an extent, the Cowan satellite based graph is also near +0.6 and at levels not seen since the June spike. Also, the SOI's have recently been back to being pretty solidly negative and look to be mainly negative through 10/24 per the Euro. Oct. will end up as the 5th month in a row with a -SOI. Climo of SOI's back to late 1800's says that's a pretty sig. indicator for a current or soon to be Nino. Vista dailies are also stuck for the past few days at around 0.6.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 1963/1965 kind of had it...1968 is probably the best match for that particular feature... You can play around with these maps..they are pretty cool http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ 1968.gif Funny you mention those years...in my half hearted stab at at outlook using the the few things I looked at, the falls of 63 and 68 ended up as 2 of the 3 I chose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Funny you mention those years...in my half hearted stab at at outlook using the the few things I looked at, the falls of 63 and 68 ended up as 2 of the 3 I chose. well..I only took a peek at ninos, but yes, years show up for all sorts of different reasons...Those 2 winters are very unlikely to be analog years for me, but I think you can usually find some features in many winters that have merit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 1963/1965 kind of had it...1968 is probably the best match for that particular feature... You can play around with these maps..they are pretty cool http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ 1968.gif thanks Matt 68/69 was the first year of a low end moderate NINO following a neutral cold ENSO (almost identical to last year's numbers) and had an easterly QBO (like this year) 68/69 had a -AO in OCT of -1 and had a -AO for the winter except for this year having a tad warmer water along and N of Hawaii as I pointed out and 68/69 a tad warmer NINO than this year (so far), 68/69 is starting to look like a decent match to this year the bad news is, even though colder than normal that winter, snow was BN in DCA and normal from BWI N & E through Boston I don't really get into making winter predictions, but if I was, it would be near the top of my list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 IAD: 26-32" and -1 to -2 overall Despite one small snowfall in December, most of the early season will have people canceling winter, but mid-January to mid-February will save it. Unfortunately, I feel another late spring is on the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 thanks Matt 68/69 was the first year of a low end moderate NINO following a neutral cold ENSO (almost identical to last year's numbers) and had an easterly QBO (like this year) 68/69 had a -AO in OCT of -1 and had a -AO for the winter except for this year having a tad warmer water along and N of Hawaii as I pointed out and 68/69 a tad warmer NINO than this year (so far), 68/69 is starting to look like a decent match to this year the bad news is, even though colder than normal that winter, snow was BN in DCA and normal from BWI N & E through Boston I don't really get into making winter predictions, but if I was, it would be near the top of my list Going on enso alone, I'd think the fall of 60 and maybe 79 are a good match. Don't know about any other characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 It looks like a localized sea surface thermal response due to amplification of the brewer-dobson circulation caused by poleward displacement of the hadley cell. Probably bad news for areas south of 40N in regards to sensible winter weather across the board. You've got the mechanism partially right (Niño forcing/-QBO affecting the BDC/HC) but I don't think it's "bad news" unless you want a stronger Niño. Those warmer waters are limiting convergence over 3.4 a bit, but nothing else really.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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