mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Or Mitch moi? http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Sea.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 http://i.imgur.com/8F9rWNn.gif?1 Per GFS we are headed towards near-record SCE.... compare with October 31st 2009 some snow melt in the last 24 hrs in areas S of 60N......is it time to panic yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 some snow melt in the last 24 hrs in areas S of 60N......is it time to panic yet? Snow melted somewhere in the world? Winter cancel. We'll be lucky to get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 moi? http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Sea.html of all the things to panic about you choose the cfs.... how about the fact that we have a strongly negative QBO and a solar max and a faltering nino.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 of all the things to panic about you choose the cfs.... how about the fact that we have a strongly negative QBO and a solar max and a faltering nino.... actually, I was bustin' WinterWxLuvr's chops because he always busts mine for using the CFS since it's showing warm, I intended to suggest he couldn't blame me if we go warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 anyone ever use this SSTA map? to me, it presents better than the other one usually posted any thoughts/info on its accuracy vs. other one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 actually, I was bustin' WinterWxLuvr's chops because he always busts mine for using the CFS since it's showing warm, I intended to suggest he couldn't blame me if we go warm I might get scared if it showed big warm anomalies in the east and big cold anomalies in the west or some other big signal for a -PNA or +AO but it just splashes red paint all over the map like some colorblind toddler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 anyone ever use this SSTA map? to me, it presents better than the other one usually posted any thoughts/info on its accuracy vs. other one? yay.... +PDO..... now the debate of chicken vs egg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I might get scared if it showed big warm anomalies in the east and big cold anomalies in the west or some other big signal for a -PNA or +AO but it just splashes red paint all over the map like some colorblind toddler. I have my fingers crossed it's wrong, but miss the pretty dark blues over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I have my fingers crossed it's wrong, but miss the pretty dark blues over us 2009-2010 wasn't that cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 2009-2010 wasn't that cold... I can't find the old maps on the CFS site I use, but I believe it did, at least for a time in the fall of 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 It did have its stretches of cold....especially around the time of the two very big storms. mid-late December through the last week of January was boring. And winter was essentially over after the last of the big storms. 2009-2010 wasn't that cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 It did have its stretches of cold....especially around the time of the two very big storms. mid-late December through the last week of January was boring. And winter was essentially rudely over after the last of the big storms. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 It did have its stretches of cold....especially around the time of the two very big storms. mid-late December through the last week of January was boring. And winter was essentially over after the last of the big storms. On the means it wasn't that cold... neither was last winter. Even with the quick ending and boring stretches, I can't imagine anyone on this subforum would be unhappy with a redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 fixed You wanted more after 85"? Spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 You wanted more after 85"? Spoiled. nah, I just knew we'd be paying a price for what we got, and quite a price it was (winters of 10/11 & 11/12) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 nah, I just knew we'd be paying a price for what we got, and quite a price it was (winters of 10/11 & 11/12) If your theory is right that doesn't bode well... Anyways, 10/11 wasn't that bad. 1/26/11 was a really fun storm and there were a couple of other nice ones. I just remember 1/26/11 was the first storm I followed as a weenie so its special in a way. Anyway, I probably blocked from my memory all the pain of watching 40 north score storm after storm which is why I'm so nostalgic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 If your theory is right that doesn't bode well... Anyways, 10/11 wasn't that bad. 1/26/11 was a really fun storm and there were a couple of other nice ones. I just remember 1/26/11 was the first storm I followed as a weenie so its special in a way. Anyway, I probably blocked from my memory all the pain of watching 40 north score storm after storm which is why I'm so nostalgic. 1/26/11 never really thrilled me that much it was so marginal imby, with temps 33ish at the coldest during the meat of the event by the time you were up in Bel Air or Mapgirl's current location (I think she was in Odenton back then), it was a great storm with a foot or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 So we aren't cancelling winter? Or just waiting until November? It'll get cancelled many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I think Matt and Bob are leaning toward an historic winter. Ok, I'm cool with that. If by historic you mean 12" at DCA then I agree... Here is a list of 25" winters at DCA that had a positive neutral or weak nino: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 If by historic you mean 12" at DCA then I agree... Here is a list of 25" winters at DCA that had a positive neutral or weak nino: yeah, but there were no winters before 95/96 with a -.9C ENSO that had anything close to what we had that year 64/65 was just about a perfect match ENSO-wise and it only had (DCA stats) 17.1" vs. the 46" in 95/96, so everything remains on the table he!!, last year at this time looked like carp too we're just going to have to hope/count on something other than ENSO to save the day for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 yeah, but there were no winters before 95/96 with a -.9C ENSO that had anything close to what it had that year 64/65 was just about a perfect match ENSO-wise and it only had (DCA stats) 17.1" vs. the 46" in 95/96, so everything remains on the table he!!, last year at this time looked like carp too we're just going to have to hope/count on something other than ENSO to save the day for us I want to at least try to get close to moderate...There is no magic cutoff or formula...but we know our chances are better if Nino is stronger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 If by historic you mean 12" at DCA then I agree... Here is a list of 25" winters at DCA that had a positive neutral or weak nino: LOL. Truth hurtz I'm just relieved that no diaster signals are showing. No reason to doubt periods of op. Capitalizing is best left to med-short lead disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 LOL. Truth hurtz I'm just relieved that no diaster signals are showing. No reason to doubt periods of op. Capitalizing is best left to med-short lead disco. I think this month's Eurosips come out this week; do you have access to them with whatever pay site you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 LOL. Truth hurtz I'm just relieved that no diaster signals are showing. No reason to doubt periods of op. Capitalizing is best left to med-short lead disco. It is easy to get caught up in "we"....we're going to see the words "we" and "us" a lot this fall coming from people who live in other regions...They mean well, but they don't realize how much we suck at winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 If by historic you mean 12" at DCA then I agree... Here is a list of 25" winters at DCA that had a positive neutral or weak nino: impressive list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 impressive list what a horrible stat...I had to check the records after reading that...the only years that might be considered a weak positive and DCA getting over 25" of snow is 1939-40...1935-36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 It did have its stretches of cold....especially around the time of the two very big storms. mid-late December through the last week of January was boring. And winter was essentially over after the last of the big storms. That's one of the reasons why it was so great. Coldest period of the year wasn't that cold (with a sweet warmup leading into our crushing Jan 30-Feb 10 period), and the bookends were fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 It is easy to get caught up in "we"....we're going to see the words "we" and "us" a lot this fall coming from people who live in other regions...They mean well, but they don't realize how much we suck at winter... Big difference too between DCA (and very close-by regions) and areas like Winchester, VA and interior northern MD which all post in this subforum. Some of those outlying areas have pretty respectable stats in weaker Ninos while DCA stuggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Big difference too between DCA (and very close-by regions) and areas like Winchester, VA and interior northern MD which all post in this subforum. Some of those outlying areas have pretty respectable stats in weaker Ninos while DCA stuggles. yeah, 69/70 and 77/78 were not bad at all around here outside of DCA however, both of those weak NINOs followed weak or moderate NINO winter of 53/54 seems to be the only weak NINO that followed neutral ENSO and DCA had 18" and BWI had 22.1" problem this year remains no perfect ENSO analogs (as usual), so something other than ENSO will need to lead us to nirvana if we're going to get there this winter frankly, I think a decently -AO could be just what the doctor ordered when coupled with a frail NINO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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