Modfan Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 what are the thoughts for qpf jackpot? Central CT/MA? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 i won't enjoy it, but as it will ruin my ice skating pond. But at least it will melt the glacier in the driveway and get rid of the ice pack. As others have noted, ice jams and flooding are a serious concern for the region. Montpelier, with the Winooski River running adjacent to the downtown region, is particularly vulnerable. An inch of QPF, the quarter to half inch of water in the snowpack, and an ice jam make for some potentially ugly conditions. I would bet significant money there's much more liquid in the snowpack. Even if only 4-6" in depth it's solid ice. I bet there's 1-2" locked up, with all the rain/freezing rain we've had since Dec 20, most is still in the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Don't think their lifts go that high. No but you can bet its snowing their Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Don't think their lifts go that high. In fantasy land they go as high as you want them to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I tried to hit up their face book page but they were smart enuf to disable random comments I'd cut and paste the green mtn nws forecast for jay peak to their website and call their B.S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I never understood why they put the capitol of the state there. Floods so often with ice jams. I've heard that some of the issues there have to do with a dam (which wasn't there way back when) that slows the water down enough to freeze up quite thickly....and then backs up at the bend just downstream of the dam. Although the Army Corp says the dam helps: http://www.nae.usace.army.mil/Missions/CivilWorks/FloodRiskManagement/Vermont/Baily.aspx Not really sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I would bet significant money there's much more liquid in the snowpack. Even if only 4-6" in depth it's solid ice. I bet there's 1-2" locked up, with all the rain/freezing rain we've had since Dec 20, most is still in the snowpack. I think you're right. The NOAA Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center shows widespread 1-2" equivalent water in the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I think you're right. The NOAA Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center shows widespread 1-2" equivalent water in the snowpack. Hopefully it doesn't all melt at once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Freezing rain advisories up for all of the GYX zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 A chance of freezing rain before 4am, then freezing drizzle likely between 4am and 5am, then freezing rain likely after 5am. I love this pinpoint forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Take a pic of what snow is left, cause it's gonna look pretty brown by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Ice jams don't need a lot of precipitation to cause flooding. The 1992 event in Montpelier followed only 0.80 inches of precip over a 24-36 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Take a pic of what snow is left, cause it's gonna look pretty brown by next week. Not sure my rock solid glacier will make it. One thing is for sure, there will be a lot of run off with the frozen snow pack and frozen ground. Never-the-less, it will snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Not sure my rock solid glacier will make it. One thing is for sure, there will be a lot of run off with the frozen snow pack and frozen ground. Never-the-less, it will snow again. I am thinking we see .75-1.0" here, It may survive, High temps look to be around 43F saturday and 36F saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Sunday may be the first January day at my place that stays above 32. I've had two days with the lows right at the freezing mark, but this time it looks like only a Sunday evening cooldown would block a milder minimum. Even in Ft.Kent I had January days that stayed 33 or milder, and in Gardiner, Jan 1995 featured a day with 45 as the low. I'd guess there's close to 4" LE in my 16" armorplate. Unless we get 2"+ at 45 or milder, most of that should still be in place on Monday morning, albeit with a worn and tattered look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Wind advisories up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Wind advisories up AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 AWT Ri SEMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Sunday may be the first January day at my place that stays above 32. I've had two days with the lows right at the freezing mark, but this time it looks like only a Sunday evening cooldown would block a milder minimum. Even in Ft.Kent I had January days that stayed 33 or milder, and in Gardiner, Jan 1995 featured a day with 45 as the low. I'd guess there's close to 4" LE in my 16" armorplate. Unless we get 2"+ at 45 or milder, most of that should still be in place on Monday morning, albeit with a worn and tattered look. What was your high temp last rainstorm? Mine was 49.6F with same dew point. I'd say we lost half our pack. If we get the same temps/dews, I think we lose much of what we have left which around my house is a solid 8-10", more in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 26F. Partly cloudy methinks some freezing rain is in the offering tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Flood advisories up, got to think Ice jams are an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 What was your high temp last rainstorm? Mine was 49.6F with same dew point. I'd say we lost half our pack. If we get the same temps/dews, I think we lose much of what we have left which around my house is a solid 8-10", more in the woods. CAD capital - never got above mid 30s. Same thing happened in the pre-Thanksgiving deluge. While Jeff was contemplating cooking his turkey on the picnic table in 60F warmth, neither my thermometer nor Farmington COOP got past 39. We're also in the ice bullseye for this one, though it's progged to be nuisance level except for walkers and drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 24F. High clouds coming in now. Let's see how well our CAD does this time around. Models indicate it gets scoured out faster than last week and there is no cold shot behind it. Still should have a tough time torching out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just had to do a round robin from my house to Boston and back. Such a huge difference in climate with a 2 hour drive. Left here at 10am with snow and 14F with 10" on the ground. It was so nice to feel 32F in Boston and see bare ground which I have not seen in so long. Back up here now and 19F after a high of 22F. Looks icy tomorrow as my CAD always holds on so long up here. My snow cover is not going anyplace very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just had to do a round robin from my house to Boston and back. Such a huge difference in climate with a 2 hour drive. Left here at 10am with snow and 14F with 10" on the ground. It was so nice to feel 32F in Boston and see bare ground which I have not seen in so long. Back up here now and 19F after a high of 22F. Looks icy tomorrow as my CAD always holds on so long up here. My snow cover is not going anyplace very fast.I think we easily get into the 40s with these next 2 cutters. I wouldn't be surprised if we lose most of our pack by the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I've convinced myself all the snow will be gone so anything leftover will be a bonus. I can't believe there's another cutter next week. Just pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I just saw a car go down the road and I thought it was snowing......fog. I guess I've kind of checked out a bit. 26.2/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Shades down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Shades down.Did you post the data where you get 76 in Jan, I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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