superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 More than likely, the 0Zs are going to come in drier and farther east. Cold Rain reverse psychology is going to turn this into a bomb at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Charleston is basically shutting down over this. Not hard to do when SCDOT has 2 snow plows for six counties in the Charleston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ok I'm confused...what did I miss in the hours I've been gone? TWC says for Fayetteville Snow to wintry mix? What's going on in Fayetteville I'm getting scared. I swear I'm not being rude - I mean I really, really swear - but you gotta keep this stuff out of the discussion threads. Storm Mode is active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man, I can't see that Burger. I'll have to wait till I get home. Stupid fone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Are you mostly frozen on the 18z run?NAM yeah. A little bit of rain then it changes over. GFS is mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Really hope this thing can throw more moisture north towards north GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windyinnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Robert just posted this on FB Thanks for all the new likes on this page. I'm so overwhelmed I can't answer all the PM's and emails though, but it's very much appreciated. This system is difficult, but it's never easy in the Southeast. I used a heavy dose of pattern recognition a few days ago when I saw the chance coming and the models are still playing catch-up. I have all my specific maps at the premium side, but I do put out custom maps here as well, and am working on one as we speak. The models aren't catching on to two things: 1) the amount of isentropic lifting from Texas, Red River and Tennessee Valley tonight and early Tuesday. 2) Not pulling enough energy off the top of the Baja/Mexico upper low, hence every run of RAP each hour increases the moisture output in that initial band, much as I ancticipated. 3) The models don't know what to do on Wednesday when the remnants of the Gulf upper low try to get handed off to a "shear axis" near the Tennessee Valley. Instead they sweep everything out to sea quickly, but that might be a big error in eastern Georgia, eastern Carolinas and eastern Virginia. 4) Overall moisture could still fill in much more than shown, but that's almost unknowable now, until the RAP model or the radar literally tells something different. Be on guard in the morning about anywhere from eastern TN, Alabama and all points east through Carolinas, Virginia, Georgia and eventually northern Florida. Yes, Florida Ice and Snow. Imagine! A dangerous ice storm for the SC low country and middle to south Georgia looks likely. Snow amounts are the trickiest to forecast. But much of NC, and VA, especially the further you go, are in fore sizeable snow. Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond and Norfolk should measure decent snow with this event...Possibly over 6" in Raleigh and Norfolk. OT sorry - but can someone kindly post Robert's FB link so I (and any other one who's interested) can like his page? Thanks so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man, I can't see that Burger. I'll have to wait till I get home. Stupid fone.You need a new phone. The PII is at its highest point yet this winter lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 From bsud "Its gonna snow on the coast but not mby??? Wtf?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I hope the NAM verifies. Would be a nice ice storm down here. GFS is okay but marginal temps. I hope we get some surprises. Me too Hell yea! +1 Oh snap, SE storm mode, Tracker let the dogs out! Yes he did I now owe him a drink whenever we have a conference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 More than likely, the 0Zs are going to come in drier and farther east. You are really rocking that reverse psychology, CR!! I'm working the regular psychology!! It's going even further west!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good to see Dr Phil in the house...that sucker can talk up a storm! NeGa, burrel, blue kazoo and myself need some kind of miracle to see an inch. Guess that would include Mark, franklin and frosty too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 These are the days when I wish this was a pay site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cng885 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If fast enough; Storm would get a lot more moisture and go boom! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Pre model entertainment. School kids covering Tool 46 and 2...Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 latest RAP. Looks like the precip is trying to make it over the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 No doubt man. I still remember Phil as a young boy fresh at UNCA. Man, he is legit now. So proud of him!! Hoping for a foot, happy with .01 STORM MODE ACTIVE!!!! Good to see Dr Phil in the house...that sucker can talk up a storm! NeGa, burrel, blue kazoo and myself need some kind of miracle to see an inch. Guess that would include Mark, franklin and frosty too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You need a new phone. The PII is at its highest point yet this winter lol! Haha! Yes to both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You are really rocking that reverse psychology, CR!! I'm working the regular psychology!! It's going even further west!! East east east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Pre model entertainment. School kids covering Tool 46 and 2...Awesome! Wow I was so lame at that age compared to them, and I was listening to tool by age 13! haha I would have loved to actually play it at that age. This guy is also older than me AND cooler than me. Dang it, cant win. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Phil is put on a Met101 clinic in the main discussion thread. I really miss having that guy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A great way for kids to learn how to play! Such a good song. Pre model entertainment. School kids covering Tool 46 and 2...Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hey guys, enjoy the storm! Only area I love seeing more snow than MBY is the southeast. I'll be lurking in the models & obs threads. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I like to consider myself a semi skilled hobbyist, but I don't know the answer to the following: Would not snow that falls through less than saturated layers but that are already sub freezing throughout the column reach the ground much easier/quicker than is usual in our part of the country where evaporation cooling is usually needed to get all layers below freezing? In other words, wouldn't less qpf be lost via sublimation than evaporation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Phil is put on a Met101 clinic in the main discussion thread. I really miss having that guy around here. Me too Special thanks to everyone out of our region for taking the time to post well wishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You basically answered your own question. The dry air evaporates the early precip before it reaches the ground. Depending on the rate of precip and the dryness of the column, the process can take anywhere from a few minutes to a few hours. Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and I didn't sleep at a Holiday Inn express last night. I like to consider myself a semi skilled hobbyist, but I don't know the answer to the following: Would not snow that falls through less than saturated layers but that are already sub freezing throughout the column reach the ground much easier/quicker than is usual in our part of the country where evaporation cooling is usually needed to get all layers below freezing? In other words, wouldn't less qpf be lost via sublimation than evaporation? I have an opinion but not strong enough to state as a fact. I need to dial a friend. Any takers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I like to consider myself a semi skilled hobbyist, but I don't know the answer to the following: Would not snow that falls through less than saturated layers but that are already sub freezing throughout the column reach the ground much easier/quicker than is usual in our part of the country where evaporation cooling is usually needed to get all layers below freezing? In other words, wouldn't less qpf be lost via sublimation than evaporation? I believe this is why ratios are higher when 850's are colder and it's colder at the SFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snow day for University of South Carolina tomorrow. Just announced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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