frazdaddy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Never happens. We are now beginning step 8 on my chain of storm events. 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. It will be a matter nowcasting soon....or looking at the radar...or...better yet out the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Couldn't have said it any better. This storm is one of trickiest I ever remember(I'm young) but it's changed rapidly and often. It's still gonna change. This one still sticks in my mind. Being under a WSW for heavy snow and getting a trace leaves a mark. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20050228/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Couldn't have said it any better. This storm is one of trickiest I ever remember(I'm young) but it's changed rapidly and often. It's still gonna change. Other than Christmas 2010, this storm has to rank up there for most difficult to predict. Just hoping it will show some love to those of us in the northern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yvilleweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The NW "trend" (if there ever were such a thing, considering one run would jump NW and the next run would jump back SE; that's not a trend to me) is over. If you're not in the QPF as of the 18z NAM, your fun is over.EDIT: this is for folks in the mountains/foothills of NC/VA on the NW fringe of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What are the chances massive numbers of school systems preemptively close early tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Never happens. We are now beginning step 8 on my chain of storm events. 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. Guilty, as charged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looking rough up this way!!! .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THEAFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDSAROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 1 ABOVE INTHE MORNING..TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THEEVENING. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 14. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looking rough up this way!!! .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 1 ABOVE IN THE MORNING. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 14. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. Lets take a trip down to FAYETTEVILLE. Really pulling for those guys.. it seems like they've been in the cross hairs for about 3 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 different state, but for GA, I'm thinking 400 down to 285, then 20 toward Augusta. that just sounds weird. But it might be more fun, since it would be flatter and less scary than when I drive up a narrow forest service road up in the mountains. since looks like its petering out for those of us farther north i am thinking the same thing lol. i may be heading down towards athens. unfortunately have a 9 AM work thing i cant get out of grrr so may go after that, unless a miracle occurs and its snowing imby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Watching people lose it is so much fun sometimes... I had a fun day yesterday with the GFS crack run, a few flakes will be fine by me. If I end up screwed again... so be it! Watching the main thread is my entertainment tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 All public schools in the Charleston area are having early releases for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yvilleweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well...comparing mine to yours does make me feel about .5% better...how much you want to bet we both see the same amount...NOTHING! Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. North wind around 11 mph. Tuesday A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Tuesday Night A slight chance of snow before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Looking rough up this way!!! .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THEAFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDSAROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 1 ABOVE INTHE MORNING..TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THEEVENING. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 14. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WWA! It's an honor just to be nominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What are the chances massive numbers of school systems preemptively close early tomorrow? They have already started closing for Tues/Wed in AL and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WWA! It's an honor just to be nominated. I'd like to thank all the ADD models that made this possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, I figured that I would give a first crack at a snow map. I've never done one of these, so go easy on the criticism please. With apologies to WilkesboroDude, I did not use MsPaint, but my line drawing skills aren't the best. Anyway, here you go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well...comparing mine to yours does make me feel about .5% better...how much you want to bet we both see the same amount...NOTHING! Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. North wind around 11 mph. Tuesday A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Tuesday Night A slight chance of snow before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%. That's what I'm looking for NOTHING!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, I figured that I would give a first crack at a snow map. I've never done one of these, so go easy on the criticism please. With apologies to WilkesboroDude, I did not use MsPaint, but my line drawing skills aren't the best. Anyway, here you go... Great job looks about perfect, especially to NO SNOW circle!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yvilleweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, I figured that I would give a first crack at a snow map. I've never done one of these, so go easy on the criticism please. With apologies to WilkesboroDude, I did not use MsPaint, but my line drawing skills aren't the best. Anyway, here you go... You don't have to throw it at us in BIG DEEP RED SORROW! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'd like to thank all the ADD models that made this possible Yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, I figured that I would give a first crack at a snow map. I've never done one of these, so go easy on the criticism please. With apologies to WilkesboroDude, I did not use MsPaint, but my line drawing skills aren't the best. Anyway, here you go... Please, for all that's good, don't leave me out of your maps, too. Always the step-child down here. :/ I got a chihuahua in this fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 CofC closed tomorrow. No classes. Offices closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, I figured that I would give a first crack at a snow map. I've never done one of these, so go easy on the criticism please. With apologies to WilkesboroDude, I did not use MsPaint, but my line drawing skills aren't the best. Anyway, here you go... So correct me if Im wrong here: Winston-S no snow ale red paint m blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nate Johnson @nsj 10 mins Why disappointment still possible. RT @jlblaes: The 15Z SREF suggests a growing chc for sleet near/SE of Raleigh. It better not sleet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Assuming I can ask IMBY questions here: How likely is a bust (what I would call <1 in.) for Durham and Chapel Hill? Also, am I correct in that the models have stabilized, and what are the odds they would reverse direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Winter Storm WARNINGS issued for most of the Florida Panhandle... Now that's something you don't see every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Is this website just for people that are studying meteorology? It seems like my questions or posts often get deleted. As I was ASKING....What causes some storm systems to take hours to "moisten" the air before precipitation falls to ground level? We're in some pretty dry air right now, aren't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I still look to be on the edge of "A really great snow of 4+ inch" or a "Mediocre snow of 1 inch or less). I hope the precip is heavier on the northern fringe or more northern then what is shown lol. Even just a 20-30 mile difference would mean the world for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Y'all remember 2 or 3 years ago, Dallas was suppose to get an inch or two and wound up with 12+ ? Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Is this website just for people that are studying meteorology? It seems like my questions or posts often get deleted. As I was ASKING....What causes some storm systems to take hours to "moisten" the air before precipitation falls to ground level? We're in some pretty dry air right now, aren't we? You basically answered your own question. The dry air evaporates the early precip before it reaches the ground. Depending on the rate of precip and the dryness of the column, the process can take anywhere from a few minutes to a few hours. Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and I didn't sleep at a Holiday Inn express last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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