jburns Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I LOVE your honesty. If our politicians thought more like you we would all be much better for it. You should consider a run for mayor! I have no future in politics. If they were dumb enough to elect me, within three months I would piss off everyone. Most, multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 euro looks like a big hit from the 500mb maps on ecmwf.int. when the good maps come in i'll look closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 looks pretty similar to the previous run. snow/ice, large overrunning pattern/cad. will be a very interesting period late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro ENS mean is an App's runner for day 7-8 that tracks NE to right over Boston. I would think that would be a good track for central/west TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro ENS mean is an App's runner for day 7-8 that tracks NE to right over Boston. I would think that would be a good track for central/west TN. What about the trailing system in the day 9/10 timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 looks pretty similar to the previous run. snow/ice, large overrunning pattern/cad. will be a very interesting period late next week.This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro ENS mean is an App's runner for day 7-8 that tracks NE to right over Boston. I would think that would be a good track for central/west TN.Or this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Or this? My response was about day 7/8, Hky was commenting about the Op Euro day 10. The ENS mean has a lot of spread for day 9/10 event, looks much warmer than Op, lots of precip. Need to see ind members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z hr. 240 snow take it with a Hugh grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 How much of that is from today's system? Note the snow far south. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 How much of that is from today's system? Note the snow far south. TW That I do not know? somebody that knows more than me can chime in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 My response was about day 7/8, Hky was commenting about the Op Euro day 10. The ENS mean has a lot of spread for day 9/10 event, looks much warmer than Op, lots of precip. Need to see ind members.Ok, thanks! As brick would say, yesterday was just the appetizer! On to the next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 DT's been barking about that day 10 period for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 How much of that is from today's system? Note the snow far south. TW At least up here, that's all accumulation from that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 FWIW-- Larry Cosgrove commented on this. Larry Cosgrove A brief update on the two upcoming storm threats that seem likely to affect the eastern half of the nation on February 3 - 5 and February 8 - 11....1) The first disturbance in the sequence will have a vast moisture connection. So while in theory its central pressure may not be all that intimidating, an area from Texas and Oklahoma to the Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard are likely to see a good deal of precipitation. Followed by a fairly intense cold pool through the Midwes...t and much of the Old South. 2) I suspect the February 3 - 5 system will redevelop off of the Virginia Capes, leaving open the possibility for heavy snows in the Northeast. But the GFS ensemble run seems to favor a fast-moving low that moves just west of the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. In that scenario, the Corn belt and lower Great Lakes get hammered by a snow and ice event. Heavy rain and thunderstorms would occur in the warm sector from SE TX and LA into the Tennessee Valley. 3) There is considerable support for a "end winter with a bang" storm 10 to 12 days from now. Same starting point (near Houston TX) as the prior system, but far stronger, taking a more eastward path into NC before climbing up the coast into Nova Scotia. If this feature interacts with the still-impressive Arctic vortex near James Bay, I think very heavy snow, strong wind and biting cold will invade the Dixie states into the Atlantic Coastal Plain. That is a preliminary outlook, and probably will change in later comments. 4) The retreat of the -AO styled blocking signal opens the door to a broad semizonal flow (with embedded shortwaves) across the U.S. after February 13. If so, everyone below the Canadian border sees a fast, huge warm-up with the weather threats shifting to flooding rainfall episodes in the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. Keep your eye on those storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 How much of that is from today's system? Note the snow far south. TW I would think none of that considering the snow here now and further south would be gone by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Top right panel please; of course these have been all over the place this winter and this is fantasy land however even the possibility is exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 How much of that is from today's system? Note the snow far south. TW None of it is from today's system as it isn't a map of snowcover. It is new snow and it is absolutely way overblown/misleading. The Euro clown maps are laughable from any provider it seems. I don't use WxBell and mine are also overblown. It even kept showing ~4" of snow for SAV-CHS up through this morning's run when we knew there was little snow accum. possible with 850's above 0C! This clown has north ATL getting 2" of snow. That's impossible with 850's well above 0 C. A lot of what they're showing is actually ZR, which would be the primary threat imo if this were to verify closely. So, they're applying a 10:1 multiplier to ZR and are calling it snowfall lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z hr. 240 snow take it with a Hugh grain of salt. Yep, this Euro clown map (like most of them) is bogus. Whereas there really is snow in spots, especially N NC, much of what they're calling snow in the CAD regions on this map is actually ZR lmao. This last system was a great example indicating the bogusness of these maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 How much of that is from today's system? Note the snow far south. TW The snow in the far south is from precip. falling after 12Z today in far southern regions, a lot of which isn't even snow of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yep, this Euro clown map (like most of them) is bogus. Whereas there really is snow in spots, especially N NC, much of what they're calling snow in the CAD regions on this map is actually ZR lmao. This last system was a great example indicating the bogusness of these maps. I figured it was, I couldn't figure out the temps for that storm on there maps? Can you post temp map for the possible CAD event? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 That snow map screams CAD wedge... We're overdue for an ice storm, hope the Atlanta folks are spared! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well I'll say this looking at the 18z coming in. That whole "warm up" isn't much of a warm up and doesn't last long. GFS wants the PV dropping in on repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I figured it was, I couldn't figure out the temps for that storm on there maps? Can you post temp map for the possible CAD event? TIA I have no map I can post, but can say that it has most of the main CAD region in the 20's to low 30's. Then again, in CAD situations, the Euro tends to have a warm bias. Details this far out are, of course, not important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well I'll say this looking at the 18z coming in. That whole "warm up" isn't much of a warm up and doesn't last long. GFS wants the PV dropping in on repeat. Fwiw, the 18Z gfs is still another GFS/Euro run showing a MAJOR ZR for much of the main CAD region in the 2/7-8 period. This run has a whopping 1.5-3" of qpf! It isn't this one run that is so sig and details are unimportant. However, it is that there have been several recent runs that have been hinting at a threat and this shows the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 jeesh this all snuck up while watching the storm we just had lol. i cant believe there is something else on the horizon (but i sure aint complainin') as we have talked about, patterns do tend to repeat, and after what just happened as long as there is any of this cold air we have been getting this winter lurking about i wouldnt discount anything. the indexes etc. may not look great, but who cares if we get another dixie storm? we have had a couple of ice storms sort of forecasted but none has really played out since dec 05 around here (i am talking anything over .25") and wtih this dense cold air i wouldnt be surprised to get an overrunning cad event. my guess is all that will be needed is a 20% of .10" freezing rain and the entire state of ga will shut down before we even see a drop lol as long as we have this colder air coming in i say lets get what we can while the getting is good it realistically cant last forever, and once it pops up north of us again we might not see if for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Fwiw, the 18Z gfs is still another GFS/Euro run showing a MAJOR ZR for much of the main CAD region in the 2/7-8 period. This run has a whopping 1.5-3" of qpf! It isn't this one run that is so sig and details are unimportant. However, it is that there have been several recent runs that have been hinting at a threat and this shows the potential. The gfs, euro, and cmc are all showing a storm in this time frame so that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well I'll say this looking at the 18z coming in. That whole "warm up" isn't much of a warm up and doesn't last long. GFS wants the PV dropping in on repeat. It's been this way since spring, why would it change now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Top right panel please; of course these have been all over the place this winter and this is fantasy land however even the possibility is exciting. v2_012914_CFSv2.png Yeah, can we cash in on that one now? This one is waaay out there in time. Has there ever been a storm modeled 10 days out that actually happened in the southeast (not necessarily as modeled but happened at all) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This last storm had a signal out that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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