Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 These frames are very worrisome for many in SC & GA. (no, 850s are not going to work for us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That would be an ice storm to end all in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Okay. Looks like we have a lot to watch in the next coupld of weeks. A coupld of threats next week, and the week after that looks juicy, too. Yeah some nice threats...Some zr possible on Tuesday and then possible big storm the around 2/8. For our area we better hope for a further east track than what has been showing up on the ops and ensembles for the 2/8 storm. Last nights 0z gfs run had a decent track for our area but most others have the track right on the coast or slightly inland which would cause our 850's to rise leaving us w/ a possible zr or even rain event. Way to early at this point but something to watch in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 that would be a lot of rain for eastern nc if it comes true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Here we go with Tuesday on the 126hr forecast we have 2m temps below freezing for western VA and western NC and a heavy axis of moisture inbound not good. CAD setting up as people have mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Here we go with Tuesday on the 126hr forecast we have 2m temps below freezing for western VA and western NC and a heavy axis of moisture inbound not good. CAD setting up as people have mentioned Yeah, consistent with the prev run with icy conditions for parts of the CAD regions. Total QPF isn't terrible.. no more than 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What's amazed me this winter is how crappy the NAO(mostly +), PNA(mostly -), and AO(mostly +) have been. Looking at the LR it looks like they stay really crappy but we're looking at a great winter pattern coming up. The only thing that has been great is the EPO. It has been almost consistantly negative and that continues to be the LR forecast. So is the EPO the biggest player? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What's amazed me this winter is how crappy the NAO(mostly +), PNA(mostly -), and AO(mostly +) have been. Looking at the LR it looks like they stay really crappy but we're looking at a great winter pattern coming up. The only thing that has been great is the EPO. It has been almost consistantly negative and that continues to be the LR forecast. So is the EPO the biggest player? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yes. Just found a good read: http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2012/10/weather-whys-wednesday-get-in-know-on.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That has some pretty bad looking ice on those GFS images. Only hope is that is over 200 hours out. I do like a good ice storm, just not losing power that is not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, consistent with the prev run with icy conditions for parts of the CAD regions. Total QPF isn't terrible.. no more than 0.5".Yea I agree I didn't look at the 5h setup before I looked at 2m so didn't realize the moisture was streaking northeastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What's amazed me this winter is how crappy the NAO(mostly +), PNA(mostly -), and AO(mostly +) have been. Looking at the LR it looks like they stay really crappy but we're looking at a great winter pattern coming up. The only thing that has been great is the EPO. It has been almost consistantly negative and that continues to be the LR forecast. So is the EPO the biggest player? Since late Dec, the AO has averaged negative and the PNA has been neutral to positive. Dec was warmer than normal, Jan colder than normal. Difference from normal was similar for both months, but with opposite sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The system post truncation looks moisture laden. I don't remember seeing any systems under the 240hr time frame looking like that this year. The stj looks like it will come alive this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Feb 8-9 storm still in the game per the 12z GFS. Great consistency with the models on this one. Tons of moisture. Sfc temps are cold enough for W half of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 And then again; 12z nails SC and a part of GA with ICE for the later system. Too far out; and a lot of areas get spared this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Feb 8-9 storm still in the game per the 12z GFS. Great consistency with the models on this one. If the GFS and it's consistency is accurate, I will start praying for you guys on that side of the hill. It has the look of a CAD monster. Tons of potential for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm not too bullish on freezing rain for Feb 4 for the favored CAD regions of NC. Weak HP at best and retreating at that too. 10m and 925 temp not to supportive of zr at the beginning and really warms up top down as the precip falls. Honestly favored areas of VA to Roanoke and Lynchburg may even have a hard time getting ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Good lord that is a heck of a storm. Looks like I may start out as snow or sleet however go over to a big ice storm. Still have plenty of time to further tune however the signal as everyone has mentioned is quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 2m Temp at 216 Feb 8-9 storm still in the game per the 12z GFS. Great consistency with the models on this one. Tons of moisture. Sfc temps are cold enough for W half of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm not too bullish on freezing rain for Feb 4 for the favored CAD regions of NC. Weak HP at best and retreating at that too. 10m and 925 temp not to supportive of zr at the beginning and really warms up top down as the precip falls. Honestly favored areas of VA to Roanoke and Lynchburg may even have a hard time getting ZR. How did you do in the early/mid Dec ice storm, this looks a lot like that but a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That is an ugly, vicious ice storm for a good chunk of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 How did you do in the early/mid Dec ice storm, this looks a lot like that but a little colder. A good glaze... alot less then an 1/8". About maybe a 1/16. Just enough to feel the ice on elevated surfaces and see it in the pine trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That is an ugly, vicious ice storm for a good chunk of NC. Yeah, let's just pretend that the mid level temps are just a couple degrees colder. Not far from a massive snow storm, yet just as far from ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 From what I remember, the December "ice storm" was more of a nuisance event. Did anyone get warning criteria? This event as portrayed now is in a whole different league. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Some of the runs is the strongest, wettest, and coldest cad the gfs and to a lesser extent, the other models, have projected in many many moons. For the gfs to show cad to that extend and cold that far out, it has to be a pretty strong one to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 From what I remember, the December "ice storm" was more of a nuisance event. Did anyone get warning criteria? This event as portrayed now is in a whole different league. TW Sorry, should have been more clear, what I was comparing the Dec event to was the day 7 event not the day 9/10 potential. My bad. Agree the day 9/10 event is completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Sorry, should have been more clear, what I was comparing the Dec event to was the day 7 event not the day 9/10 potential. My bad. Agree the day 9/10 event is completely different. Yep! We're on the same page. TW edit: The difference now is that we have ALOT of snowpack up north and the hp at least initially is in a better location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That is an ugly, vicious ice storm for a good chunk of NC. That is nasty! I don't want any part of a zr storm like that. I would just take the rain...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ It depends on which ensemble you choose (E1, E2, E3). The 1st ensebmle (E1) is from the earliest 10 days, the 2nd ensemble (E2) from the second earliest 10 days, and 3rd ensemble (E3) from the latest 10 days. The one pictured in this thread is E3, so the ensemble using the most current initial conditions. Thanks Jon. I finally found which image was being referenced. It's not the same as the one I was using. I need to do a bit more research on this product to understand it better. Today's prog looks a bit better than yesterday's, so hopefully, we're moving in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Day 11 CPC Super Ensemble looks iffy for us from an anomaly perspective but the analog dates are mix type events for central NC, but the 70/80's are hard to get great data on, but at least shows a lot of potential for mix type event. The analog for Feb 79 has been showing up now for several days, not the PDI date, but early Feb 79 which was every snow for central NC. These CPC Super Ensembles have been pretty good this winter, hopefully it keeps it up. Analog Date - Winter Event 2/9/75 - 2/5/75 had a frzn/ip/snow mix 2/11/82 - 2/13/82 had a rain/snow mix in RDU, looked to be snowier farther west 2/25/72 - 2/19/72 had a frzn/ip/snow mix 2/8/79 - 2/7/79 had 6" of snow in RDU plus some ice, 2/9/79 had another light event 2/3/72 - cold rain 2/25/82 - 2/27/82 had a frzn/ip/snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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