timnc910 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So are these storms cad area only. East of 95 would be cold rain right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So are these storms cad area only. East of 95 would be cold rain right? possibly snow and ice in parts at the beginning.. again, too far out to forecast such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So are these storms cad area only. East of 95 would be cold rain right? No. There is some front end snow, then it goes to some freezing rain, then maybe rain from east of rdu to the coast. From rdu westward it's below freezing the entire time. again though, don't get caught up in details like this. There is no way a model is going to have such details right this far in advance. Hell, despite the good agreement among models so far, there might not be a storm at all..or it could end up a thousand miles from where it's being shown. For example, the euro is wildly different over canada between last nights run and this run. Fact is, all of this is just for entertainment purposes only and just an intepretation of what the model is showing. Not a forecast, not a serious threat, just a pretty picture right now. I certainly wouldn't bet on a model getting things right 9 days in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I accidentally deleted packbacker's post. Oops. I was trying to quote it to say it reminds me more of supercad in 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So are these storms cad area only. East of 95 would be cold rain right? A strong classic CAD can push(establish thenselves) deep into the coastal plain of NC. Weaker CADs ussually effect the "typical" CAD areas (Greensboro south-westward). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Forgot to mention it has upper teens in the northern mountains/northern foothills of nc. that's some cold stuff there. Wow, plenty of cold air to tap and funnel down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I accidentally deleted packbacker's post. Oops. I was trying to quote it to say it reminds me more of supercad in 04. Actually, it was my post. No big deal. I was wondering if the depiction was close to the Dec 4-5, 2002 mega ice storm.(I may not have the year right). I was trying to think of other major storms that this looks similar to. I only remember a few times where we had significant snow, sleet and freezing rain at the same time. Seems like 96 was one also. I don't remember the supercad 04 storm. Anyway, I really hope there's not a major ice storm. No fun! Looks like there is tremendous model agreement right now pointing that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Its the 10 day gfs but shows the cold air about to invade the us.. if you loop it you can clearly see this... plenty of cold air to work with http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=10d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 15" totals in Greenville SCPlease?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I see Euro wants to shut down Birmingham and Atlanta again. Touche, Euro. Touche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If this is like the event we just went through, the models will start trending bigger as we get closer, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 CLT has to have between 10 to 12 inches on this run. Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The heights look too high/warm for the SE for snow...even when the 850s are supportive at the beginning. This does not look like much of a snow producer for any of us as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 CLT has to have between 10 to 12 inches on this run. Epic. That's pretty wild. Looking at the 850 temp maps, it look way too warm to sustain snowfall. +8C on the 210hr map over CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Is there any way 850mb temps can trend colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Is there any way 850mb temps can trend colder? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So it probably looks better for NC if it shows temps in the 20s the whole time. SC and GA probably have to worry more about ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Then I wouldn't lose hope if I were in Charlotte. This winter has been full of surprises and cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So it probably looks better for NC if it shows temps in the 20s the whole thing time. SC and GA probably have to worry more about ice. No, we still need to worry about ice. First we need see if the storm continues in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If the storm stays on the models, I think things will trend colder than warmer. That's how it has been all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's pretty wild. Looking at the 850 temp maps, it look way too warm to sustain snowfall. +8C on the 210hr map over CLT. Just basing it off of the SV snowfall map which is pretty conservative most times. It has been going bonkers with these storms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Please?!Really? Please send us 15 inches of ice? -_- NO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's pretty wild. Looking at the 850 temp maps, it look way too warm to sustain snowfall. +8C on the 210hr map over CLT. Agreed. 2m are even worse. This isn't a snow event for much outside of the mountains, we need this to trend much colder for most folks. I'd rather not have the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billypg Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So it probably looks better for NC if it shows temps in the 20s the whole time. SC and GA probably have to worry more about ice. Brick in a cad setup the best areas where the cold air doesn't get scoured out tends to be the lee side of the apps.... Hickory to GSP to NE GA north of Athens The closer u r to the coast the more WAA u tend to get ! It's still more than a week away time for the models to evolve Let's hope the trends continue in all of our favors ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I doubt it gets to perry. The freezing line at it's most southern extend goes from about lagrange to augusta then retreats slowly to the northeast. I wouldn't concern myself with these type of details though. Other than the rough outline/scenario, these details aren't worth much. This would HAMMER many on this board. As lookout said, central GA sits around 34 with plain rain, BUT we are a ton of days away for 1, 2...I ALWAYS hedge my bets on it being colder at 2m than forecasted with wedges. ALWAYS happens. This could put mid GA and north GA in a freaking helluva ZR storm. Lookout and Delta, Thanks for the analysis. This looks like another one we'll be tracking, especially if you live in the favored CAD regions. As Delta said, wedges can be tough for the models to forecast, especially if the high is strong enough and in a favored position. The nuisance ice storm we had in January 2005 (I think that's the right year) featured a strong CAD that bled the cold air all the way down into central Georgia. Unless things trend significantly colder over the next week, I think I'd rather pass the ZR storm to someone else. Any takers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Agreed. 2m are even worse. This isn't a snow event for much outside of the mountains, we need this to trend much colder for most folks. I'd rather not have the ice. Maybe we can get mostly snow with a little ice. But an inch of ice would not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Day 11 CPC Super Ensemble looks iffy for us from an anomaly perspective but the analog dates are mix type events for central NC, but the 70/80's are hard to get great data on, but at least shows a lot of potential for mix type event. The analog for Feb 79 has been showing up now for several days, not the PDI date, but early Feb 79 which was every snow for central NC. These CPC Super Ensembles have been pretty good this winter, hopefully it keeps it up. Analog Date - Winter Event 2/9/75 - 2/5/75 had a frzn/ip/snow mix 2/11/82 - 2/13/82 had a rain/snow mix in RDU, looked to be snowier farther west 2/25/72 - 2/19/72 had a frzn/ip/snow mix 2/8/79 - 2/7/79 had 6" of snow in RDU plus some ice, 2/9/79 had another light event 2/3/72 - cold rain 2/25/82 - 2/27/82 had a frzn/ip/snow mix A very bad ice storm occurred along the Gastonia - Charlotte - Monroe corridor extending down to Rock Hill and Lancaster, SC on February 4-5, 1975. KCLT received 1.36" of liquid - all freezing rain. I remember it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Agreed. 2m are even worse. This isn't a snow event for much outside of the mountains, we need this to trend much colder for most folks. I'd rather not have the ice. My maps have upper 20's to lower 30's at 2m for CAD regions. 850's do warm but start out at -4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi10m ECMWF has what would be a near record US Snowcover by 240 hours. 4 storms in 10 days send snowcover to Austin to Atlanta line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Agreed. 2m are even worse. This isn't a snow event for much outside of the mountains, we need this to trend much colder for most folks. I'd rather not have the ice. Agreed, verbatim it shows front end snow to probably sleet then majority frzn, but this does look like this will be a miller B, IMO, which are typically mixed bags for us. I am sure there will be lots of changes in the next few days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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