packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It (12z euro ensemble) appears to be moving the high quite a bit faster than 0z, off the coast instead of anchored in the northeast. No double barrel (parent high back in the plains) high look like on the op either. We really need a banana high in this situation. Yeah, not as good, but storm signal is still there, kind of what prompted me with that post I had above showing how much things change from 8/9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It (12z euro ensemble) appears to be moving the high quite a bit faster than 0z, off the coast instead of anchored in the northeast. No double barrel (parent high back in the plains) high look like on the op either. We really need a banana high in this situation. Regardless of the details, I think we can say that the 12Z Euro ensemble is still another run suggesting a threat for 2/7-8. Same goes for the 12Z CDN ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Qpf sounds like it's very robust for an ensemble mean 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I am not trying to dig too far down into any details, just trying to note any trends with the high pressures to the north and the overall setup to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 To illustrate how bogusly bullish the Euro's clown maps are, take a look at this snowfall projection (as an example) from the morning of the SE coastal event which was almost all ZR and IP with 850's safely above 0C. Yet somehow the Euro kept insisting on 3-4"+ of snow, which fortunately wasn't taken seriously: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Been a lot of nice input and discussion reading here; of note is the so-called "torch" which many keep mentioning. As long-term forecasts turn into short-term forecasts it's been amazing the turnaround and lack of any long-term warmth. To have a potential situation being shown so far out and so relatively consistent should give many pause for concern. While this weeks SE event turned into a travesty it did not involve a crippling ice-storm along with the poweroutages and associated problems. I leave much of the analysis and commentary to those who know better by reading and learning however even with my limited knowledge this is both an exciting time and a concerning time. Hope the trend of colder as this gets closer will continue and most of us wind up with a nice awesome snowstorm and not the crippling disaster which is currrently being potentially depicted. Will definitely be interesting to track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Bastardi is all in on a big storm next weekend for the East coast inland areas from N. Ga up to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro control on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 To illustrate how bogusly bullish the Euro's clown maps are, take a look at this snowfall projection (as an example) from the morning of the SE coastal event which was almost all ZR and IP with 850's safely above 0C. Yet somehow the Euro kept insisting on 3-4"+ of snow, which fortunately wasn't taken seriously: Snow1dayEnding0ZJan30th0ZEuroOp012914run.png Isn't that map though pretty close to reality? I mean I don't deny that snow maps shouldn't be taken seriously but really almost every model didn't play the warm nose in correctly and almost never does. For those that did see snow the map was fairly accurate was it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Isn't that map though pretty close to reality? I mean I don't deny that snow maps shouldn't be taken seriously but really almost every model didn't play the warm nose in correctly and almost never does. For those that did see snow the map was fairly accurate was it not? Burger, It is fine close well inland where 850's were below 0C. That's not the issue. I'm not talking about those locations, I'm talking about on and near coast and in SE GA where the 850's were clearly above 0C for virtually the entire event. The Euro takes qpf that falls when projected 2 meter temp.'s are 32 or lower and assumes all precip is snow. Ridiculous! This needs to be kept in mind when looking at this next storm, which looks to have a lot of precip. with 850's above 0 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Burger, It is fine close well inland where 850's were below 0C. That's not the issue. I'm not talking about those locations, I'm talking about on and near coast and in SE GA where the 850's were clearly above 0C for virtually the entire event. The Euro takes qpf that falls when projected 2 meter temp.'s are 32 or lower and assumes all precip is snow. Ridiculous! This needs to be kept in mind when looking at this next storm, which looks to have a lot of precip. with 850's above 0 C. That is interesting Larry. So this Euro snow map issue isn't vendor specific? I knew WxBell tended to count all frozen as snow, but you're saying this happens on all Euro snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The ensembles are even more bullish on snow than 0z. The mean doubled from 2-4. All of the ensemble members at this time show a large amount of qpf but notall are snow. Well over half have measurable snow and about 5 are big hits. So there is very large support for a storm and decent amount of conconfidence in a snow event for the mtns. Went up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Went up here too. Yeah, if the ensemble mean on WeatherBell can be believed, it shows about 6" here. That's crazy for a storm 8-10 days away. I think I counted 12 members with 10"+. Almost every member shows some snow. I'm feeling pretty optimistic about this one for some reason. Maybe it's because i have snow on the ground now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I just counted up members showing 5" of snowfall or greater for next week: Boone: 37/50 Rutherfordton: 30/50 Shelby: 26/50 Gastonia: 24/50 Greer: 25/50 Greensboro: 26/50 Raleigh: 10/50 Winston:33/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 A freaking lot of members of the EPS have KCAE pretty cold at the surface during heavy precip.. like 30+ members if I have the colors correct... Im totally ignoring the 13 members showing snow as I dont think its snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z GFS looks like it could be gearing up for a big one out to 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z GFS looks like it could be gearing up for a big one out to 180. Yeah, that's a big one somewhere. Big southern trough.. near 1050mb HP overhead. Aleutian low swinging in to push the mean trough eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I normally think it's ridiculous to discuss storms so far out into the future but this is one of the strongest signals I can ever remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This storm looks big and looks like it's just itching to cut, but doesn't, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I normally think it's ridiculous to discuss storms so far out into the future but this is one of the strongest signals I can ever remember. The last storm was modeled really strong on the EPS which is why we spoke of it so long out too. The EPS is doing pretty darn well with showing the precip/snow chances for a while now. Very impressed. Just have to sift through junk it spits out sometimes and be realistic with comparing the individual member's precip chart to that same member's temperature is annoying for an ice chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This storm looks big and looks like it's just itching to cut, but doesn't, I hope.The evolution of the storm before this one will have a big impact. Kinda sets up a 50/50 low to help keep it south hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I normally think it's ridiculous to discuss storms so far out into the future but this is one of the strongest signals I can ever remember. It is funny this past Tuesday's storm was modeled fairly far out, GaWx was all over it, I think we created a storm thread like 6-7 days out, which would be like tomorrow night 0z runs for this next potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I normally think it's ridiculous to discuss storms so far out into the future but this is one of the strongest signals I can ever remember. Let's just hope it's not another March '01 debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It cuts but has a huge CAD signal. lol at the QPF someone is gonna need a bigger boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Let's just hope it's not another March '01 debacle.How about a feb 04? We saw that one this far out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Major CAD signal and icestorm at 216 on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It cuts but has a huge CAD signal. lol at the QPF someone is gonna need a bigger boat. Well it should cut up the spine of the apps and than transfer, who knows where it will transfer, hopefully fairly far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Let's just hope it's not another March '01 debacle. I gotta hear this story. Do tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Front end dump of snow possible from N NC north, and a big icestorm afterwards. Both the GFS and EURO seem to indicate a QPF monster with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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