moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Boy, BOX AFD is--how should I say it----underwhelming. AS FOR SNOW...WE ARE THINKING THAT ACCUMULATIONS IN NW MA AND SOUTHERN NH COULD REACH A FEW INCHES AFTER THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION BY 06Z MONDAY - JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO PROBABLY STAYING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Boy, BOX AFD is--how should I say it----underwhelming. AS FOR SNOW...WE ARE THINKING THAT ACCUMULATIONS IN NW MA AND SOUTHERN NH COULD REACH A FEW INCHES AFTER THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION BY 06Z MONDAY - JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO PROBABLY STAYING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. Seems worrisome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Seems worrisome Are they tossing the qpf amounts based on speed of system? Seems to be the case, but perhaps their thinking is a slower changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Seems worrisome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 People only remember the screw zones that are over their house. I've had some deformation bands rot over me in some of the good storms over the last few years so maybe Sunapee missed the brunt of those, but they can easily jackpot out there. Feb-Mar 01 was awesome there. Wx2fish and I were just looking at some nice weenie spots out near Andover NH and down through Sunapee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 fast-moving rainstorm on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Are they tossing the qpf amounts based on speed of system? Seems to be the case, but perhaps their thinking is a slower changeover. Seems like they are anticipating it being warm so most of the precip stays rain before it flips back to snow on the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 fast-moving rainstorm on the NAM. I would worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 NAM is out-to-lunch, expected. Biggest GFS run since the last one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 fast-moving rainstorm on the NAM. If there is one thing you can say about the Nam, It has been very consistent for most every storm so far this winter, The only problem is, Its in a bad way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I would worry. If its not the qpf its the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 If its not the qpf its the warmth Choose any variable and you can state the same. Once in a blue-moon it comes close, the only thing to watch are the trends but in general should never be used in the winter. This is taxpayers money used to it's fullest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Choose any variable and you can state the same. Once in a blue-moon it comes close, the only thing to watch are the trends but in general should never be used in the winter. This is taxpayers money used to it's fullest. That's all i use it for, And to see how much fantasy qpf it can spit out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The NAM shows what happens when that primary over the Lakes stays predominant for longer. Rainer. Let's see what the GFS shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 nam lol.. let's wait for GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The NAM shows what happens when that primary over the Lakes stays predominant for longer. Rainer. Let's see what the GFS shows... not much cold air around either-NAM's probably right for most folks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 We almost get nailed each time lol, but bands tend to set up like 10 miles to the east, and we get stuck eating -sn while Warner is ripping. I didn't know that, about Warner getting the heavy snow while you miss it. I live at the borders of Warner, Webster and Salisbury. I always find a lot of snow when I ride out rt 4 from Salisbury thur Andover to New London. I wonder if Kearsarge is having some sort of impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS looks really cold up in canada -30 850 temps in quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS is going to be good. NAM vs. GFS (not even close) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Wx2fish and I were just looking at some nice weenie spots out near Andover NH and down through Sunapee. sometimes at the end of storms I ride out towards Andover, and I find the snow often lingers there, under the radar. Beautiful out there btw, for you SNE weenies who suffer when the Dendrite Destroyers strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I didn't know that, about Warner getting the heavy snow while you miss it. I live at the borders of Warner, Webster and Salisbury. I always find a lot of snow when I ride out rt 4 from Salisbury thur Andover to New London. I wonder if Kearsarge is having some sort of impact? My uncle lives in Andover tucked right up against the east side of Ragged Mtn and they hold snow extremely well. New London is a nice weenie spot too. I think most of the town is over 1200'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 not much cold air around either-NAM's probably right for most folks.... Again, the amount of cold available is not a linear progression. The NAM is rain because it has $hitty secondary cyclogenesis, not because there is no cold around. Have decent secondary cyclogenesis, we will have the cold. NAM is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Paste bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Again, the amount of cold available is not a linear progression. The NAM is rain because it has $hitty secondary cyclogenesis, not because there is no cold around. Have decent secondary cyclogenesis, we will have the cold. NAM is wrong. it's going to be close the GFS run has it a little closer to the coast on this run but a little stronger so maybe net neutral, I'm going to start as rain and hopefully can flip to get a nice snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS is going to be good. NAM vs. GFS (not even close) Seems like only yesterday that people were slamming the GFS. But the NAM has been comical this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 it's going to be close the GFS run has it a little closer to the coast on this run but a little stronger so maybe net neutral, I'm going to start as rain and hopefully can flip to get a nice snow bomb. Obviously its going to be close, but I've been here for 32.5 winters (one half of 2003 in NC), AND 9/10 times these end up snowier in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS is a nice hit for SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Gfs looks to be a north of the pike deal. 2-4 on sv snow maps. Looks like its a bit warmer also. Only one run, lots of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'm planning on snow here Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS is a nice hit for SNH. I highly doubt KASH gets 10" and I rain, but the run is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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