TheSnowman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 So basically if you live in Northern RI you have no chance and are looking at 2.5" of Rain. With 50 miles away from a 2 foot snowstorm. Great. Parrrrr for the course this year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Chance of worry 100%. Worry may mix with slight optimism near the end of the event.[/quotlol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 GEFS are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Chance of worry 100%. Worry may mix with slight optimism near the end of the event. awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Even after the snow is over and snow is deep.. Considerable worrying and shifting will occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Even after the snow is over and snow is deep.. Considerable worrying and shifting will occur New models develop a batch of W+ over NRN RI. It's possible WWW may be expanded to include nrn Providence County. Will save it for the next shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Even after the snow is over and snow is deep.. Considerable worrying and shifting will occur And considerable wavering and waffling can be expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Even after the snow is over and snow is deep.. Considerable worrying and shifting will occur Chances for lightning & thunder depend on how many cups of coffee and diet cokes are consumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Models are pegging a shawlslot to move into the region after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 New models develop a batch of W+ over NRN RI. It's possible WWW may be expanded to include nrn Providence County. Will save it for the next shift.Lol10:15 update Worried another 1-3 may fall . Qpf increased on 00z models , worries increasing little to no snow will fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 GEFS are all over the place. well that sure clears things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Chances for lightning & thunder depend on how many cups of coffee and diet cokes are consumed.We may even see some Worrysnow with the lightning and thunder which could lead to a quick couple of inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 well that sure clears things up. I would not worry to much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Do your hands feel just like 2 balloons? When I was a child I saw a 980mb low Out of the corner of my eye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 His weenie moves, but I can't hear what he's saying...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Pretty big sensible weather differences between the 18z GFS and NAM, lol. What's 12-18" of snow between friends? I looked at the soundings and the NAM is warm... 0C is almost up at like 800mb with +4C at the surface. GFS is isothermal 0C to almost 800mb. 18z precip for ORH from the NAM: 18z precip for ORH from the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Pretty big sensible weather differences between the 18z GFS and NAM, lol. What's 12-18" of snow between friends? I looked at the soundings and the NAM is warm... 0C is almost up at like 800mb with +4C at the surface. GFS is isothermal 0C to almost 800mb. 18z precip for ORH from the NAM: NAM.png 18z precip for ORH from the GFS: GFS.png It's going to cool some (NAM). I'm just not certain how much so. But, the NAM has a NW QPF bias beyond 48 hours, and having the model also be warm would be thermodynamic/consistent with that. Problem with bias' is that they are not always present. NAM and GGEM appear to be warm outliers at the moment, though, and since both can be explained within the confines of their known bullcrap, that doesn't lend too well to confidence there. I just ...I can't tell you how many times I've seen these warm looks end up isothermal blue jobs. The low is going underneath us and the respective surfaces are also SE of PVD. I don't care if it is +2C at 850, when the UVM cuts over top that, it will drill a hole in the bottom of the atm. I just want to see that not happen first, ...if that makes no sense at all,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It's going to cool some (NAM). I'm just not certain how much so. But, the NAM has a NW QPF bias beyond 48 hours, and having the model also be warm would be thermodynamic/consistent with that. Problem with bias' is that they are not always present. NAM and GGEM appear to be warm outliers at the moment, though, and since both can be explained within the confines of their known bullcrap, that doesn't lend too well to confidence there. I just ...I can't tell you how many times I've seen these warm looks end up isothermal blue jobs. The low is going underneath us and the respective surfaces are also SE of PVD. I don't care if it is +2C at 850, when the UVM cuts over top that, it will drill a hole in the bottom of the atm. I just want to see that not happen first, ...if that makes no sense at all,... But I'm sure there are also plenty of examples of marginal warm looks ending up as non-blue bombs, as a devil's advocate type approach. My gut is saying that it starts as rain most areas but flips from the top down part way through the system...something where we see a bunch of people posting -RN for the first few hours, then all the sudden a whole slew of folks go over to pouring aggregates pasting every surface white. Snow throughout for the Monadnocks on NEward through IZG though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 But I'm sure there are also plenty of examples of marginal warm looks ending up as non-blue bombs, as a devil's advocate type approach. My gut is saying that it starts as rain most areas but flips from the top down part way through the system...something where we see a bunch of people posting -RN for the first few hours, then all the sudden a whole slew of folks go over to pouring aggregates pasting every surface white. Snow throughout for the Monadnocks on NEward through IZG though. ...as their soundings crash toward triple eggs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Chance of worry 100%. Worry may mix with slight optimism near the end of the event.[/quot lol! Just reading today's posts and you're taking a good beating. Lol. Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 ame='moneypitmike' timestamp='1388099993' post='2576538']Just reading today's posts and you're taking a good beating. Lol. Sent from my LG-E980 I see you haven't solved the learning curve with your phone yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 ame='moneypitmike' timestamp='1388099993' post='2576538']Just reading today's posts and you're taking a good beating. Lol. Sent from my LG-E980 I see you haven't solved the learning curve with your phone yet lol. Just spit up my tea. Yeah wth? I think it's tapatalk. Lots of issues Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 lol. Just spit up my tea. Yeah wth? I think it's tapatalk. Lots of issues Sent from my LG-E980 Yeah, Quote feature is messed up, Just a bunch of code with the text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 MPM piggy pile tonight But he has coffee for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Kinda worried I may be a little too far NW for this one I'll get my snow, I'm definitely north of the jackpot. amrite? The Sunapee screw zone lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Kinda worried I may be a little too far NW for this one I'll get my snow, I'm definitely north of the jackpot. amrite? The Sunapee screw zone lives You're good and since when is there a Sunapee screw zone? LOL, you guys get nailed all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 You're good and since when is there a Sunapee screw zone? LOL, you guys get nailed all the time. We almost get nailed each time lol, but bands tend to set up like 10 miles to the east, and we get stuck eating -sn while Warner is ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 MPM piggy pile tonight But he has coffee for all Yeah--completely unwarranted. FYI, here's the distro of the "where are you from" poll responders. Based on this, the comments about "where no one lives" or "where 95% of the people live" may need to be revisited. At least as they pertain to the posters here. Responder Chart.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 You're good and since when is there a Sunapee screw zone? LOL, you guys get nailed all the time.People only remember the screw zones that are over their house. I've had some deformation bands rot over me in some of the good storms over the last few years so maybe Sunapee missed the brunt of those, but they can easily jackpot out there. Feb-Mar 01 was awesome there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 People only remember the screw zones that are over their house. I've had some deformation bands rot over me in some of the good storms over the last few years so maybe Sunapee missed the brunt of those, but they can easily jackpot out there. Feb-Mar 01 was awesome there.Same with the deforms with me since moving to Bow. Don't remember that happening much or ever in MHT but they are a pit for snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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