Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If the Euro is correct flooding will be a threat on Sunday You can almost bank on that solution not waffling from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I found a few possible analogs for tomorrows storm...They were 4-6" events with very cold temps following it...higher amount analogs...2/7/1967...1/12/1964...12/12/1960...1/20/1961... 1/14/1977.....weak el nino year... 1/28/1952.....weak el nino... 2/02/1955.....weak la nina... 1/26/1961.....neutral... 1/16/1965.....weak la nina... 1/18/1984.....weak la nina... 1/14/2004.....neutral... 2/07/1979.....neutral... 2/07/2003.....el nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 some high ratio snowstorms... date.......precip.....snow..... 03/60.......1.08".....14.5".....13/1 12/60.......0.84".....15.2".....18/1 01/61.......0.50".......9.9".....20/1 01/61.......0.24".......3.8".....16/1 01/64.......0.88".....12.5".....14/1 01/65.......0.35".......4.6".....13/1 02/67.......1.06".....12.5".....12/1 02/74.......0.24".......6.0".....25/1 02/78.......1.13".....17.7".....16/1 02/79.......0.39".......5.0".....13/1 02/79.......0.85".....12.7".....15/1 02/91.......0.55".......8.9".....16/1 02/96.......0.52".....10.7".....20/1 01/04.......0.15".......5.7".....38/1 01/05.......1.18".....13.8".....12/1 02/05.......0.37".......6.0".....16/1 02/05.......0.69".......7.7".....11/1 12/09.......0.74".....10.9".....15/1 12/10.......1.61".....20.0".....12/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone notice that the temps have leveled off and even dropped slightly since this morning? I'd thought we'd be above freezing but holding at 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow look at the gfs Tuesday and Wednesday of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 some high ratio snowstorms... date.......precip.....snow..... 03/60.......1.08".....14.5".....13/1 12/60.......0.84".....15.2".....18/1 01/61.......0.50".......9.9".....20/1 01/61.......0.24".......3.8".....16/1 01/64.......0.88".....12.5".....14/1 01/65.......0.35".......4.6".....13/1 02/67.......1.06".....12.5".....12/1 02/74.......0.24".......6.0".....25/1 02/78.......1.13".....17.7".....16/1 02/79.......0.39".......5.0".....13/1 02/79.......0.85".....12.7".....15/1 02/91.......0.55".......8.9".....16/1 02/96.......0.52".....10.7".....20/1 01/04.......0.15".......5.7".....38/1 01/05.......1.18".....13.8".....12/1 02/05.......0.37".......6.0".....16/1 02/05.......0.69".......7.7".....11/1 12/09.......0.74".....10.9".....15/1 12/10.......1.61".....20.0".....12/1 If we had those almost 40:1 ratios with this storm right now, we could have been dealing with around 30" of snow on just 0.75" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Flash freeze likely on Monday/Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Any other snow chances out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like there might be some signal for a winter storm around the 10th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I have a gut feeling the 12Z 12/28/13 ECMWF will have a 6-12 inch snowstorm for the NYC and LI area with amounts near 1 foot on Eastern LI, as it shows a much better track and less confluence. Regarding 1/2-1/3 event. I think something like over 6 inches of snow will start showing up more as we get closer. Cape Hatteras to near 40/70 type track. Could this follow Nemo's 2/8/13 legacy last year ? The 6Z ensembles off the operational on the GFS are very positive for this to trend positive. My snowblower, gas, and stabilizer are ready. Ear plugs are ready to be worn. Snowblower is ready to take this on... Nice call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Any updates on Euro for Sunday/Monday and next Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Any updates on Euro for Sunday/Monday and next Thursday? Friday 1/10 - The GGEM would be the most significant with a moderate snowfall the ECM showing a minor event some snow, maybe mixing south of the city, Quick moving shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 By looking at the 12z gfs it looks as if the pattern seems to be periods of very cold temperatures followed by warm up and rain, rinse and repeat. Can anyone comment on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I've noticed our pattern where we alternate between rain event and snow event.....rain...snow... back and forth.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 No sign we will be as cold as today except on Tues. till at least the bottom of winter near 23rd. We are colder than Moscow where even the 850's are higher than our 2m's. Cold will come back with PV on our side of North Pole and stratospheric warming favorable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Friday 1/10 - The GGEM would be the most significant with a moderate snowfall the ECM showing a minor event some snow, maybe mixing south of the city, Quick moving shortwave makes sense that as we come out of this frigid pattern there will be a storm along the east coast which has happened many times in the past - all the models are hinting at this including the 6Z GFS which also has a very active pattern the next couple of weeks http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014010406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I have to give the JMA credit for seeing the trough progression from west to east during December into January on the November 17th run. It's also interesting how many -EPO December analogs featured the colder temperatures arriving here in January. JMA 11-17-13 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The JMA is an underrated model. I see us returning to snow chances towards 3rd week of Jan, so enjoy the cold this week and then take a break from wx for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 euro has light snow moving into the area thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Euro has light snow on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 6z GFS has several inches late week for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Looks like a sneaky little system showing up on the models for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The JMA is an underrated model. I see us returning to snow chances towards 3rd week of Jan, so enjoy the cold this week and then take a break from wx for a bit. ...JB agrees with you..he mentioned it on his latest free discussion..weeks 3-4 show classic blocking..cross polar flow..neg nao..yada,yada,yada.. all courtesy of the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Looks like a sneaky little system showing up on the models for Thursday. agreed - these types of systems are difficult to forecast this far in advance - its going to be a race between the moisture arriving and whats left of the cold air hanging around just long enough to give us some accumulation or retreating back north to make it a mix to rain scenario - sort of like today..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I have to give the JMA credit for seeing the trough progression from west to east during December into January on the November 17th run. It's also interesting how many -EPO December analogs featured the colder temperatures arriving here in January. JMA 11-17-13 run Screen shot 2014-01-04 at 8.46.16 AM.png JMA did well last year too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 Were going to have to see as we head towards jan. 20th what kind of end to winter mother nature has in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 Btw agreed that JB has been pretty good this year. I think he may be onto something sniffing out a better pattern for snow in weeks 3/4, guess we'll have to wait and see what february has in store for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Were going to have to see as we head towards jan. 20th what kind of end to winter mother nature has in store for us. Only a +PNA looks favorable among the PNA,NAO,WPO,EPO by Jan. 20. Can anyone add info on ENSO, MJO, stratospheric warming for this same period? Thanks Let me answer myself concerning the MJO, looks like it is going into Phase 6, also UN-favorable but with low significance at this time of year for NE. Also checked ENSO now, and it is considered neutral with El Nino tendencies by summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 The 12z GFS is now over an inch of rain for NYC on Saturday into Sunday. The 06z GFS was between 0.50-0.75" and that was close to the 00z ECMWF. We're going to be dealing with a fairly potent northern stream trough. The GFS cuts off the southern stream down in Texas. As the southern stream begins to eject, the next northern stream shortwave is dropping down through the northern plains. Right now the timing between the two streams is off, but I believe this will be the next time period that will need to be watched for a significant east coast storm. The models will likely struggle with regards to the timing with the ejecting southern stream wave. In any event the 12z GFS has a strong southern stream low attempting to ride up the alps days 5-6 and then off the NJ coast. The end result is a sub 1000mb low just south of Long Island at hour 147. Even though it's rain, the cold air is not that far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 The 12z GFS is now over an inch of rain for NYC on Saturday into Sunday. The 06z GFS was between 0.50-0.75" and that was close to the 00z ECMWF. We're going to be dealing with a fairly potent northern stream trough. The GFS cuts off the southern stream down in Texas. As the southern stream begins to eject, the next northern stream shortwave is dropping down through the northern plains. Right now the timing between the two streams is off, but I believe this will be the next time period that will need to be watched for a significant east coast storm. The models will likely struggle with regards to the timing with the ejecting southern stream wave. In any event the 12z GFS has a strong southern stream low attempting to ride up the alps days 5-6 and then off the NJ coast. The end result is a sub 1000mb low just south of Long Island at hour 147. Even though it's rain, the cold air is not that far away. Ive heard "the cold isnt that far away" line before. We're going to have to see what this storm and cold air does as we reach the thursday/ friday time frame. This is pure timing and it wont take much of a shift to make this a nice little snow threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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