wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Guys , this is prob the best I`ve seen a day thru 5 thru 15 MB look all year , No doubt. I'm thinking a 4-8/6-10 type event between 1/21 and 1/25 and potentially a KU between 1/28 and 2/3. I mean look at the global ens now? Raging -EPO, raging +PNA and some -NAO signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 but you said I was arguing r/s line at day 7? Meant D 5 . All good , no more fighting Please , my head hurts . Great 500 MB Look starting Fri . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 My last post on the issue and to you since you continue to be a trolling warminista even after all these years. The 12z Euro was probably the best looking LR run of the season for the entire area, showing massive potential by months end. Rebuilding raging -EPO with cold and northern stream vorts, one after another, coming down into the CONUS. The day 5 system is now also looking like a possible snow threat, which was not the case until today. Yet your take from it is that it shows no snow or cold prior to day 7 and you don't care about what is shows for day 9. Fundamental lack of understanding of meteorology. Everyone else here is looking at the mid levels, and you're busy complaining about the lack of surface snow. WTF cares what the surface shows? Frankly, that you're even looking at the surface again shows a fundamental lack of understanding of meteorology. LOL, looking at the surface again. - I NEVER LOOK AT THE SURFACE. I posted a h5 map. You know that right? Can you read that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 500 mb looks better can you post the h5 map? that is mslp anomaly map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 the system on the 18th could easily be all rain for us. the last thing we need with this setup is higher than average heights to our east. any more amplification and it runs west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Dude, it's 9 DAYS OUT. The model, as depicted is showing a rough 50/50 signature; details to be worked out later. It is also showing somewhat of a blocking signal, east or west based, I don't give a cripe yet. wtf else are you expecting it show at day 9? A 970 bomb off on the benchmark? The reason people have an issue with you is because you have yet to even acknowledge the potential of the pattern. You are acting as though the Euro showed a pumping SE ridge and 70 degree temps the whole run. THere is no difference in your analysis from run to run. It always sucks. Well, in this case, it's better for NNE. lol, same ole Ace. Even after 10 years. dude its 9 days out - why are you wasting time looking at? There hasnt been an instance this year where a day 9 depiction has come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 can you post the h5 map? that is mslp anomaly map No more Euro maps , or I will be in the BOX , sorry my man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 the system on the 18th could easily be all rain for us. the last thing we need with this setup is higher than average heights to our east. any more amplification and it runs west yup- thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 No more Euro maps , or I will be in the BOX , sorry my man. aaah gotcha. Thanks anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 the system on the 18th could easily be all rain for us. the last thing we need with this setup is higher than average heights to our east. any more amplification and it runs west Considering that we have a progressive pattern as a mean, we won't have to worry about that. If anything, we have to worry about a graze (close call). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 dude its 9 days out - why are you wasting time looking at? There hasnt been an instance this year where a day 9 depiction has come to fruition. After a decade, same ole ace. You are clearly not reading anything I am posting, so we're done. You post H5 maps, but then only talk about the how ****ty the surface looks. Warminista. Peace. For everyone else, mid levels are looking better for later this week and awesome for next week and beyond! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The end of January looks absolutely loaded with potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It certainly looks good going forward but a KU type event is a big question mark if the NAO is positive. Maybe something along the lines of February 2006, wasn't that all PNA induced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It certainly looks good going forward but a KU type event is a big question mark if the NAO is positive. Maybe something along the lines of February 2006, wasn't that all PNA induced. Yep...it's a 4-8/6-10" look for EOM right now. Remember that for the Jan 3rd event, the transient block didn't show up on the models until a few days before. Plenty of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 the system on the 18th could easily be all rain for us. the last thing we need with this setup is higher than average heights to our east. any more amplification and it runs west All rain is unlikely strictly based on climo of storms that tend to bend onshore in winter...something more or along the lines of what occurred in 12/30/00 or 2/25/10 is more likely, we usually do not quite get a Sandy like pull to systems in the winter whereby places west of CNTRL CT or WRN LI will see much rain but definitely ERN LI and ERN CT and SRN NE could get screwed in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The 22nd system is more amped on the euro ens. Basically more favorable for each threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 No doubt. I'm thinking a 4-8/6-10 type event between 1/21 and 1/25 and potentially a KU between 1/28 and 2/3. I mean look at the global ens now? Raging -EPO, raging +PNA and some -NAO signal. Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 boy looking at the pattern, the end of January and very beginning of February look VERY sexy, like porn model sexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Please on Feb 2nd Ha looks like Jan 22 - 23 rd though . Euro control is nice . I will add the Control run Snows here Fri into Sat , the track is similar to the Canadian . not saying its right , but its East and Colder than the operational . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Please on Feb 2nd i've been praying ever since the day it was announced 3 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 D 15 on the Euro Ensembles , Minus 30 air at 850 Stretch from ND to Maine all the way thru the OHIO valley if we have snow cover we go below ZERO , if that's right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro Ensembles look like the December 30, 2000 snowstorm for Saturday in terms of LP position and 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro Ensembles look like the December 30, 2000 snowstorm for Saturday in terms of LP position and 850mb temps.+1. Now just need that translate to the surface. Few more pieces to fall into place before we can woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Day 10 on the Control the departing system drags a piece of the PV down and the 0z line at 850 is in Key Biscayne . Should prob B some OJ futures . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 So can KNYC match the +4 from earlier this month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 So can KNYC match the +4 from earlier this month? could be below 0 if there is snow on the ground - thats the only reason it didn't go below 0 last week - no snow cover - but very impressive cold without snowcover last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 18z gfs is a dream after the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Ridge bridge FTW? Man, ensembles are looking pretty sweet, euro and gefs. Storm chances too, pretty much all you can ask for from the particular pattern we have seen so far this year with very little atlantic blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The 18Z NAM @HR84 looks somewhat more interesting than the 18Z GFS at the same hour. The northern stream is digging further west and it's slower than what the GFS shows at the same hour, over the Midwest. That needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 All rain is unlikely strictly based on climo of storms that tend to bend onshore in winter...something more or along the lines of what occurred in 12/30/00 or 2/25/10 is more likely, we usually do not quite get a Sandy like pull to systems in the winter whereby places west of CNTRL CT or WRN LI will see much rain but definitely ERN LI and ERN CT and SRN NE could get screwed in this setup Now were talking here! lol.. Only way that I can see this happening is if the surface low smashes into LI. Many here on the western side of things would welcome that with open arms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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